[MaterialExcess]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hy September?

And what is going to cause the collapse of investor confidence?

[vision-master]

[MrBill]

There can always be a finanical crash triggered by some event at any time. Some of the more spectacular crashes come shortly after reaching new highs. Others are triggered by external events that cannot be accurately forecasted. Somewhere, someone is predicting a crash everyday that will start shortly. Eventually one of them is right.

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic17680.html

LEAP2020 boldly predicted a global systemic economic meltdown to occur in March 2006.

Seemingly there is a career in predicting doom.

Mr. Bill is right, though: You never know when the herd animals will stampede.

[roccman]

And here's LEAP with an April 07 prediction:
link
In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:
1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April
2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US: - 25%
4. Entry into recession of the US economy in April 2007
5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts
7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal
8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen
9. Tumble of Sterling Pound

[roccman]

Keep in mind...the above article was written on th 19th of February.

Global markets shrugged on 2.27.

[Mircea]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')nd here's LEAP with an April 07 prediction:

In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:

1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April

[MrBill]

Mircea wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')EAP also said that the US would collapse, burn down and sink into a swamp within 90 days of Iran's Euro bourse, and that didn't happen either. LEAP is so out of touch with reality that if I didn't know better, I'd say the Amazing Kreskin is running the show there.

[AFO]

Reasons for economic shutdown by the beg. of 2009

1) Real U.S Inflation over 4% - Going higher due to increase in oil prices in 2007-2008

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5697

2) China's economic tightening policy

http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0523.html

3) Dollar collapse & devaluation trend

http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/tremblay=1041

4) 1st year of new president in office (2009)

http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

5) Factors leading to 2009 Depression

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5572

6) Stage 2 of Bakhtiari peak oil transition 2009

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AFO', 'R')easons for economic shutdown by the beg. of 2009

1) Real U.S Inflation over 4% - Going higher due to increase in oil prices in 2007-2008

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5697

2) China's economic tightening policy

http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0523.html

3) Dollar collapse & devaluation trend

http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/tremblay=1041

4) 1st year of new president in office (2009)

http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

5) Factors leading to 2009 Depression

http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5572

6) Stage 2 of Bakhtiari peak oil transition 2009

[Doly]

Well, I keep reading occassionally the Financial Times, and from time to time you get one of those "long view" articles saying that the current global imbalances can't go on forever, but they can't give you any decent estimations on when or how it's all going to crash.

I bet that when it happens, it will be like the Great Depression. You will get experts saying it's just a temporary adjustment, even as it's happening.

We will only see the crash on the rear view mirror.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'W')ell, I keep reading occassionally the Financial Times, and from time to time you get one of those "long view" articles saying that the current global imbalances can't go on forever, but they can't give you any decent estimations on when or how it's all going to crash.

I bet that when it happens, it will be like the Great Depression. You will get experts saying it's just a temporary adjustment, even as it's happening.

We will only see the crash on the rear view mirror.

[roccman]

"Secondly, one country's trade surplus has to be another country's deficit. So, if the US can no longer pay for its imports then oil producers and Asian exports can no longer sell to them. That reduces those exporters' current account surpluses. "

This is where I am not convinced.

Why would almost 3 billion Indians and Asians not become their own consumer machine?

We are at a point where America is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the global playing field.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Secondly, one country's trade surplus has to be another country's deficit. So, if the US can no longer pay for its imports then oil producers and Asian exports can no longer sell to them. That reduces those exporters' current account surpluses. "

[roccman]

"But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "

Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.

And I would argue - we are at a point where 300 million american consumers are out of money and almost out of jobs...retail sales down...credit spending up...making hamburgers is now classified a "manufacturing".

And "growing" by $450 Billion a year??

If I had a printing press in my basement I would be "growing" too.

How much is new money supply "growing" (M3) what 12-13% A MONTH??!!

The stock market needs to be at 15,000 JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

[MOCKBA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '"')But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "

Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.

[vision-master]

Or India..............

[roccman]

FWIW

Rise of India & China will alter income balance


Edited for length. Please insert LINK as opposed to long URL address. Thanks.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '"')But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "

Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.

And I would argue - we are at a point where 300 million american consumers are out of money and almost out of jobs...retail sales down...credit spending up...making hamburgers is now classified a "manufacturing".

And "growing" by $450 Billion a year??

If I had a printing press in my basement I would be "growing" too.

How much is new money supply "growing" (M3) what 12-13% A MONTH??!!

The stock market needs to be at 15,000 JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '"')But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "

Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.

And I would argue - we are at a point where 300 million american consumers are out of money and almost out of jobs...retail sales down...credit spending up...making hamburgers is now classified a "manufacturing".

And "growing" by $450 Billion a year??

If I had a printing press in my basement I would be "growing" too.

How much is new money supply "growing" (M3) what 12-13% A MONTH??!!

The stock market needs to be at 15,000 JUST TO BREAK EVEN.