[EnergyUnlimited]

There are plenty of small island states or dependant territories, notably on Pacific ocean.
Lets forget places like Papua NG, Indonesia, Guadalchanel, Nauru etc, which are doomed to failure due to overpopulation, etnical problems etc.
Lets forget about Australia "mainland", where government is already encouraging peoples to drink what they piss...

What are the prospects of small island states, including New Zeland perhaps?
In particular what do you think about prospects of island states like Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, some islands of French Polynesia Tahiti alike, or maybe Hawaii?

OK, some of those places like Kiribati are likely to sink within decade or two, but certainly many others will not.
Many of them have quite low population density in range of 50 people per km2 or less.
They are often self sufficient in respect of food and in place production of small amounts of biofuels from excess of crops is certainly viable proposal in some of those places.

Whats the future of those places?
1. Doom by rat overrun precipitated by rampant immigration of wealthy first worlders once TEOTWAWKI is in sight here?
2. Truly sustainable communities?
3. Environmental disaster (Easter Island style)?
4. Environmental disaster by natural causes?
5. Other ideas?

I would cautiously vote on 1.
What about other scenarios?

[Tanada]

You forgot Kerguelan islands on your list, currently a French dependency with just a weather station and a few workers. The place is relatively large, mountainous, perfect for sheep raising.

Getting you and your family there would be the hard part.

[wisconsin_cur]

I like mutton and even fish maybe once a week but reading about the Kerguelens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerguelen_Islands) makes me appreciate my marginal Wisconsin outpost a bit more.

Where would my boys meet women? And if there were enough for 2-3 generations where are we going to get the wood to build a ship so the g-grandkids can meet women their not related to?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I') like mutton and even fish maybe once a week but reading about the Kerguelens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerguelen_Islands) makes me appreciate my marginal Wisconsin outpost a bit more.

[NEOPO]

The sound of people drowning...

[Tanada]

Proper Planning Prevents Poor Genetics....or something like that. If you have about 200 individuals with diverse lineages or 2000 from a region you should be OK in terms of genetics for the long haul. Just make sure none of the first generation are carriers of recessive defects and it will do wonders for the genetic health of your descendents.

[I_Like_Plants]

They think Hawaii was colonized by 3 separate groups of Polynesians, of course now it's one of the most diverse areas in the world. Hawaii's problem is probably too many people, although even on the island of Oahu there are huge, huge, areas with just no one there. But the population that can be sustained by the Pacific/Asian fishing/farming culture that would evolve after powerdown would still be probably a lot smaller than what's there now.

One bright side though is, everyone there seems to think of "The Mainland" as being the Big Rock Candy Mountain or something, so if there were any kind of warning that things are about to go to hell a lot of people would leave - and that might bring things down to where decreased birth rate could taper the population down somewhat gracefully.

Of course though they'll all just fuckin' die if Lovelock is right about irreversable global warming.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'T')hey think Hawaii was colonized by 3 separate groups of Polynesians, of course now it's one of the most diverse areas in the world. Hawaii's problem is probably too many people, although even on the island of Oahu there are huge, huge, areas with just no one there. But the population that can be sustained by the Pacific/Asian fishing/farming culture that would evolve after powerdown would still be probably a lot smaller than what's there now.

One bright side though is, everyone there seems to think of "The Mainland" as being the Big Rock Candy Mountain or something, so if there were any kind of warning that things are about to go to hell a lot of people would leave - and that might bring things down to where decreased birth rate could taper the population down somewhat gracefully.

Of course though they'll all just fuckin' die if Lovelock is right about irreversable global warming.