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Why is everyone Printing

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Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 18 May 2007, 12:10:33

Here's a summary of the money supply growth of various countries (which I've seen this from various sources)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Russia (M3): ---------- +49%
India (M3): ------------ +20.3%
China (M2): ----------- +17.2%
New Zealand (M3): -- +18%
Australia (M3): ------- +13%
Great Britain (M4): -- +13%
South Korea (M3): -- +11.3%
USA (M3): ------------- +12% (Est.)
Canada (M3): -------- +10%
Eurozone: ------------ +10%
Japan (M3): ----------- + 6%

*Data from John Embry, Sprott Asset Management, Toronto, Canada.

So I understand why the US is printing money like mad, basically because they're a dying dinasour and they have no choice.

but why is the rest of the world printing, especially countries like india and China that have huge trade surpluses. Don't these countries have enough money coming in that they don't need to print, or do these growth numbers represent the incoming money (ie a function of currency conversion)

And why is Japan so low when they're the source of the Carry Trade
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Fri 18 May 2007, 14:20:02

First Question, Because the USA is printing too much money, that causes the value of the US dollar to weaken in value against foreign currencies, other countries do not want their currencies to rise against the dollar as that will hurt their exports and for many countries that is their MO. So as the US dollar inflates, they also inflate so as to keep the currencies stable against the US dollar and business as usual can continue. You can't print gold or silver, thats why they have risen strongly against most paper currencies.

#2, Japan is battling against deflation, in 1989 their asset/equity market popped and it's been a rough ride down. Japanese got 99 year mortgages for little apartments, large mortgages can not be paid off with high interest rates so rates are below 1% to prevent defaults which would in turn cause more deflation. Also the Japanese government have a huge debt and they benifit from low repayments. The yen carry trade works by Japanese banks lending to foreigners, the foreigners benefit from cheap money to use for investments and the Japanese banks benefit from the spreads as the Japanese central bank loans the money to the local banks at .5% interest and those banks in turn loan it out at perhaps 1-2%. It all looks good until it comes crashing down with the yen carry trade unwinding unless the Japanese government is really good at debasing their currency (quite likely).
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby TorrKing » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:10:04

My guess (quite similar to Dukat_Reloaded's first suggestion) is that all of the fiat currencies are plotting. If all currencies fall, their value will in relation to eachother (which is how the value is determined) not fall as dramatically. This way they'll disguise the weakening dollar or other crucial currencies.

A real measurement of true value of the dollar and other fiat currencies, the gold price is manipulated to maintain the illusion.

A problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:25:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A') problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.

Because they jigger the numbers, you’ll know it is really going amok when they quit reporting the cpi just like they quit reporting the money supply (M1,2 & 3, whatever).

Mr Bill you are welcome to correct me like you always do when I make a boneheaded economic statement.

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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:39:34

and then Bang! this comes across the wires

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he gold market largely ignored the news that China raised interest rates and said that the yuan would be allowed to trade more freely on Friday.

link

This should stir the pot up a bit

edit ---
Here's a more useful link (Reuters sucks)
China widens yuan band, raises interest rates

edit edit ---
and for some reason my earlier post disappeared but it did pretty much follow these lines

GOLD ECLIPSES MAJOR CURRENCIES

and basically confirming your point Torjus
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 18 May 2007, 16:17:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', '
')A problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.


Image

Money doesn't enter the system via individual paychecks. If it did, prices for kitchen appliances and clothing would be skyrocketing right now.

Money enters the system via the banking system. Banks loan money to major financial institutions like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch who then put the money into the stock market, bond market, commodities market, and so on.

If the share price of Google breaks into the quadruple digit-range despite having rather modest profitability...blame excessive money creation.

But it takes a long time for new money slushing around the world to find its way into the price tags at Sears and JCPenny's.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Zentric » Fri 18 May 2007, 16:59:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A') problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.


Here's my mostly conceptual take on it. We're quickly heading into a future where the assets of today - say, some home or car or jet which offers you extreme comfort or mobility - won't be that appealing any more. Say, for instance, no more appealing than just your crashing on the couch in some safe place among friends.

For example, your million dollar McMansion in Los Angeles was super-nice in 2005. But in 2015, it's in a deathtrap neighborhood where water and electricity services are infrequent, but where, on the other hand, looting and gang-banging are constant. And your Porsche Turbo Carrera is just no good anymore since the roads have potholes, the thugs want to beat you up when they see you driving it, and gasoline ain't as cheap and available as it used to be.

So, if you consider those who are either fabulously wealthy or are wealthy and control the global flows of money, these people have probably already made their survival-related purchases and now they have little left to spend their hordes of money on, besides Picassos and Pollacks, or converting public manufacturing and public infrastructure into privately-owned dividend-producing equity. And as far as people of more modest means like us, is there much at all we can buy now to increase our odds of survival in the future? No, not really. Getting out of debt (which will free up our mobility) seems to be most important by far. So, for now, while global supplies of goods remain in rough balance with demand, we have something of a standoff between inflationary and deflationary forces.

For highly consumable and necessary items, though - like food and fuel - inflation is rampant. And inflation should also be way up for rare, desirable items that will remain intact in the midst of an economic meltdown - like precious metals. My guess is that if the proponents of globalization - who are actively suppressing gold's challenge to fiat currency - begin to lose control of their regime, then the dollar price for these metals will again skyrocket, just as has already happened with food and fuel.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Fri 18 May 2007, 18:14:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')Money enters the system via the banking system. Banks loan money to major financial institutions like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch who then put the money into the stock market, bond market, commodities market, and so on.

Yep, and let's not forget the housing market.

The investor class becomes ever wealthier as they benefit from asset inflation, while those who don't earn enough to generate an investable surplus or play the leverage game fall farther behind.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 18 May 2007, 21:44:15

As a British guy who got basically got handed £10k to repay around 2135, I'd like to point out that we are printing money because it's the only way to keep our economy afloat. Without massive inflows of big sexy cash from an arbitrary future, we wouldn't have consumer spending, we wouldn't have cashflow, and we would be fucked. We are in an economic Catch-22, forced to destroy our future or else forfeit our present. It's the secret of why we receive so much praise for beating Eurozone growth: we printed more money for our immediate needs than they did. It'll bite us on the ass, but not on (whoever)'s watch.

We do have inflation, by the way. The official figure is 3.5%, but not including most of the stuff that makes up inflation. My food bills have seen double digit growth the last two years. I guess I'm not the only guy with free money.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Mircea » Sat 19 May 2007, 20:18:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A') problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.


Don't feel bad, you're in good company with people like Adam Smith. He couldn't (or didn't want) to explain it either and came up with the "invisible hand" thing.

You might want to look at the Phillip's Curve. It's still controversial, but perhaps it might explain the lack of inflation.

What Phillip's claimed was that there was an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. If unemployment is high, then inflation is low.

As it stands now (at least in the US) we're being told unemployment is low, so we should expect inflation to be high according to Phillip's Curve.

But, I'm not sure I trust the numbers the government is putting out. The way unemployment rates are calculated has changed, and also states in the US use sampling surveys to attain unemployment rates instead of looking at the data from their own unemployment insurance compensation funds. There's some evidence that the data is being manipulated in favor of the government. For example, seasonal workers are counted as employed, even when it's off-season and they aren't, plus there's some evidence to suggest they're ignoring worker's who have been unemployed longer than 26 weeks, are under-employed and the way part-time employment is handled.

The postor who suggested that the money isn't entering through worker's paychecks might be onto something. Prices generally increase when suppliers and retailers know you can spend more and I don't see real wages rising.

Although it was hyper-inflation, you could take a closer look at post-WWI Germany, where an average newspaper cost about 0.30 Marks and 2 years later it cost 70,000,000 Marks, to see if anything jumps out at you with respect to the money supply and how it entered into the system.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby TorrKing » Sun 20 May 2007, 04:57:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', '
')The postor who suggested that the money isn't entering through worker's paychecks might be onto something. Prices generally increase when suppliers and retailers know you can spend more and I don't see real wages rising.

Although it was hyper-inflation, you could take a closer look at post-WWI Germany, where an average newspaper cost about 0.30 Marks and 2 years later it cost 70,000,000 Marks, to see if anything jumps out at you with respect to the money supply and how it entered into the system.


My first thought on this is that in a crashing economy the government starts huge state projects (or hand out cheap loans) and try pouring money out into the system to get a kick-start on a positive trend. Failing to have any other remedy, they continue to do the same in the hoping a reversal. The result is an ever increasing inflation if not successful.

It is however generally accepted on this site it seems, that the politicians of the US wants the economy to crash this time. And chances are there isn't any real base of another such start anyway. So trying to kick-start a positive trend may be out of the question. That way it may seem more likely that we'll experience very little money pouring out into the market this time and that any inflation is because of increasing prices.

But will not the money printed have to enter the market in order to mantain the illusion? Is it enough to have it in the state bank?
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 20 May 2007, 14:16:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'I') can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.

I’d like to add something to the answers given.

First off all is the petrodollar isue. All kinds of comodities are priced in dollars. Non-american exporters seem to be very happy to accept dollars for their comodities and save the dollars. Inflation would rise a lot faster if these people spent those dollars.

Second is a related isue: the Chinese have linked their yuan to the dollar with a piece of elastic. The yuan is a very strong currency, that is significantly undervalued. To keep the dollar from falling the Chinese seem willing to make their currency stronger and stronger (raising interest rates and increasing reserve ratio’s). But that’s not enough. As the dollar is ‘heavier’ than the yuan, the dollar is slowly pulling the yuan down, even while at the same time the Chinese let the dollar devaluate relative to the yuan at a slow but steady pace. The yuan in return is slowing down the fall of the dollar and in doing so, slowing down the growth of US inflation.

Thirdly I’d like to emphasize that the party is over. Inflation in the US is rising despite what the Chinese are doing to slow it down. During the first four months of 2007, the CPI-U rose at a 4.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This isn’t slow.

The Chinese will not let their economic growth and inflation run out of control. You can expect a further devaluation of the dollar. That will accellerate US inflation even further.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 21 May 2007, 05:36:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'A') problem with my "theory" is however that I can't explain why inflation isn't going amok.

Because they jigger the numbers, you’ll know it is really going amok when they quit reporting the cpi just like they quit reporting the money supply (M1,2 & 3, whatever).

Mr Bill you are welcome to correct me like you always do when I make a boneheaded economic statement.

*<|;^)


No worries, Pops. I think that you and Ducat_Reloaded basically have it right.

One, central banks are printing to keep their own currencies from appreicating in real terms and negatively impacting exports and growth.

If the US consumes two-thirds of the world's capital viz a vie its current account deficit then the rest of the world is getting quite an economic stimulus by directly or indirectly exporting to the USA in US dollars.

It does not matter in which currency the exports originally take place because through the capital markets savings flow to cover deficits and vice versa. So someone's current account surplus is always someone else's current account deficit, and it does not matter whether that deficit is expressed in US dollars, lira, pesos or dinars.

Of course, deficits do matter to both the debtor and the creditor. They have to re-payed either through increased saving at the expense of current consumption or they have to be inflated away through devaluation. So those higher export receipts today will eventually be at the expense of a fall in USD denominated asset prices later or higher inflation.

Do not get too upset with me here, but money supply growth does not lead directly to inflation. There is a link. Excessive money supply growth can lead to asset price inflation, and increasing asset prices can lead to increased consumption viz a vie the wealth effect. And it can be distorting to say the least.

However, it is really the cost of money or real interest rates that central bank's set that determine their own domestic inflation. If they are commited to printing money to cover each transaction then they cannot really say no when a bank knocks at its open window to borrow money. What the CB can do is raise interest rates and increase minimum reseve requirements to ration the supply of money.

Generally, real interest rates of 3-percent, that is nominal interest rates over and above actual consumer price inflation, should be enough to slow down the real economy and therefore money supply growth. Raising minimum reserve requirements from say 5% to 10% also slows the money multiplier effect.

But if the CB lends money at say 0.50% p.a. while nominal GDP growth is say 5% then it is not really a mystery why money supply growth is increasing. 5% nominal GDP growth is also net of inflation whereas the discount rate of 0.50% is gross. This makes the difference even worse and is hardly neutral. Quite stimulative.

So really publishing money supply growth is really not the issue some make it out to be (each country has its own M0, M1, M2, M3, M4 measures). It is a nice need to know figure, but no more than accurately counting and reporting real inflation numbers. There the policy of substituting parts of the CPI basket is less than accurate and less than honest.

You may wish to look at core inflation numbers to better compare one month to the next (i.e. smooth out the trend), but over time you have to look at all the inflation in the system including food & energy. The rationale was that eventually higher food & energy prices would work their way into core infation, so no need to focus on it until it happens. But as I said, I think it is a slight of hand to be honest, as is substituting cheaper goods in the inflation basket to make the headline number look lower.

So low real interest rates, excessive global liquidity and currency manipulation by many of the world's central banks are directly or indirectly leading to current global imbalances. There is enough blame to share with everyone. As we see it is effecting inflation and storing up problems for the future. The result may be stagflation and not just in the US dollar zone either.

p.s. sorry if that is poorly written. My mind is on some other stuff right now. Please ask if something I said makes absolutely no sense to you. Thanks.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby FoxV » Tue 22 May 2007, 17:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'O')ne, central banks are printing to keep their own currencies from appreicating in real terms and negatively impacting exports and growth.


I was thinking about this, (Financialsense.com had an article a little while back titled "The Race to Debase"). The only problem is that they're not doing a very good job of it. The USD is at an historical low point (albeit bouncing up in the last little bit). Right now the Loonie is breaking a historical high point (and with the recent drop in gold, we canucks are being set up for a great buying opportunity :) )

So I see can appreciate why the world is printing away, and I also understand where inflation stands as the end result of all of this. My question now is, where do Derivatives stand in all of this.

The entire derivative market is now exceeding 1 Quadrillion dollars (total derivative market not just CDO based derivatives at around $380 Trillion). That's 20X the world's GDP held up in things where its difficult to know what the end asset is (and in some cases there is no end asset, mearly the option to buy/swap an asset).

So where would a Derivative blowup leave us (which is also where a lot of this freshly printed money is going
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 23 May 2007, 05:10:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ferrelgiraffe', 'M')r. Bill, thank you for that concise compilation, It brought up several important questions I have never seen answered before. namely.
Could you briefly state what advantage the government wouldwin in making the amero? one hemisphere money system?

Also how is the Euro hurting specific countries if they are very liberal with welfare and how does it hurt those countries who are in deficit trade (Like US?)

I would think each country printing their own money and setting their own interest rates would form a rock solid impenetrable barrier against world shock.

but what do I know.

(Maybe they don't wnat an impenetrable barrier against world economic shock.)


Despite Dr. Mundell's (Father of the Euro) Nobel Prize a currency union is no different than a bathtub. If you add cold water to hot water you end up with warm water. Plain & simple.

The introduction of the euro or EMU, as opposed to the previous system that fell apart the ERM, was to remove the process by which countries could devalue their way out of trouble thereby beggaring their neighbor.

The deutschmark sphere of hard currencies* - the hot water - was mixed with the club med zone of soft currencies - the cold water - to create the euro - warm water.

It was a political decision, but it had commercial logic. First of all the devaluation of the club med currencies - the ERM crisis in 1992 - was at the expense of the deutschmark appreciating in value. As far as I am concerned looking at deficits in the present eurozone this process would have gone on indefinitely.

This imposes costs on countries that have a hard currency as it makes their exports less competitive, which hurts growth and jobs.

So the euro or EMU was in some respects simply a recognition of this fact. However, implementation of the euro was also paid for disproportionately by those countries with strong currencies that traded in a tight band around the DEM.

Inflation as well as interest rates were dramatically higher outside the DEM zone. So, after the monetary union (EMU) those club med countries got a huge monetary boost as interest rates in the EMU converged with DEM area interest rates. In some cases, we are talking about rates 10% lower than they were before the union. A huge shot in the arm for these countries and one of the reasons we have seen so much construction and speculation in real-estate in places like Spain.

But it was a one off and now its effects are waning as inflation picks up in the EMU and the ECB is forced to raise rates.

Due to the devalution during the ERM crisis Germany found that its labor productivity costs were significantly higher than either Italy or France. If memory serves me correct call it 110 versus 80-90 on a scale of 100.

This should have given Italy and France a lot of breathing space to reform their economies, but given they lacked, let us call it, the Protestant Work Ethic, they didn't. Now 8-years on (EMU rates were locked in 1999, the euro was introduced in notes & coins in 2001) we have quite a different competitive picture. Germany has improved its productivity so now it is 90 on a base 100 scale, while Italy and France's scores have risen to 130 and 110 respectively. In otherwords, Germany has learned to live with a strong euro, while Italy and France squandered the opportunity.

Nevermind that Italy and Greece lied to get into the EMU. That is another story for another day.

So just as the positive effects of lower interest rates and that monetary shot in the arm are starting to wear-off in places like Spain for example they are finding themselves under pressure due to high labor per unit of output costs and other economic inefficiencies that Germany has since solved. And places like Italy are struggling from cheap Chinese imports from a strong euro, while Germany (and Switzerland by the way) are busy exporting capital goods like machines to Asia.

Now, politics being politics in the EU, the French and others of course cannot and will not accept responsibility for their lack of action and squandered opportunity, so they try to devise revenue sharing formulas that penalize large economies that get their financial houses in order.

Germany having lived through the pain of low, slow growth is just starting to see its economy recover and unemployment come down. While France is pushing for a super fund paid for by the EU to help workers hurt by globalization. Germany is naturally the largest contributor by far to the EU budget.

They also complain bitterly about lower taxes and lower operating costs in the newcomers to the EU - the mainly CEE entrants, but throw Ireland in there if you want?

Having benefited from convergence of interest rates at the lower end of the curve, they would now like convergence of taxes at the high end of the range, so that their systems look more competitive.

But of course low tax areas like Cyprus are vigorously resisting this as for them it is a competitive advantage. In France, if a gross salary is 100.000 euros then the worker takes home about 45.000 net. 55% tax. However, the company that employs the worker also pays 60.000 euros to the government in salary taxes, so the real gross salary is actually 160.000. That means the government is taking 72% tax not 55%. Of course, they complain about Cyprus who only levy between 25-30% tax on their citizens.

That is why foreign companies coming to the EU prefer to open offices in places like Malta, Ireland and Cyprus rather that France.

So what does this have to do with the Amero? Well, good question. I almost forgot myself.

Canada has its fiscal house in order. Balanced budgets finally. Paying down the debt. Plus robust growth from high energy and commodity prices. Of course, central Canada is suffering a little from The Dutch Disease from a strong Loonie, but they should be re-directly more of their exports to western Canada, and I guess some are, but that takes time.

I cannot see any benefit for Canada (hot water) to join an Amero currency union with the USA and Mexico (cold and colder water)?

We already have free trade via NAFTA, so any benefits would have to be from tying our CAD to the USD, and given the USA's massive current account and budget deficits as well as unfunded future liabilities, I can see no gain in it for CDA? And what if anything does Mexico have to offer? Their oil & gas exports are on a back slope already, and their migration is north to the USA, not jobs heading south as Ross Perot expected. At most a cluster of industries right smack dab on the US-Mexican border, and a big fence in between.

But of course the USA can always invade CDA for our natural resources. It would be ironic that the EMU that represents ever closer union to prevent European wars were to lead to an Amero because CDA was invaded. Sigh.

*hard currencies - DEM, NLG, ATS, BEF, LUF
soft currencies - FRF, ESP, PTE, ITL, GRD
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 25 May 2007, 04:40:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'O')ne, central banks are printing to keep their own currencies from appreicating in real terms and negatively impacting exports and growth.


I was thinking about this, (Financialsense.com had an article a little while back titled "The Race to Debase"). The only problem is that they're not doing a very good job of it. The USD is at an historical low point (albeit bouncing up in the last little bit). Right now the Loonie is breaking a historical high point (and with the recent drop in gold, we canucks are being set up for a great buying opportunity :) )

So I see can appreciate why the world is printing away, and I also understand where inflation stands as the end result of all of this. My question now is, where do Derivatives stand in all of this.

The entire derivative market is now exceeding 1 Quadrillion dollars (total derivative market not just CDO based derivatives at around $380 Trillion). That's 20X the world's GDP held up in things where its difficult to know what the end asset is (and in some cases there is no end asset, mearly the option to buy/swap an asset).

So where would a Derivative blowup leave us (which is also where a lot of this freshly printed money is going


Sorry for the late reply on this one.

I am not sure I can conceptualize $380 trillion much less one quadrillion dollars? That is a lot of paper.

But let us define what a dervative is first? Basically, there are many kinds, so a one size fits all definition will be totally unsatisfying to everyone. However, at its most basic it is a contract based on an underlying asset. Most derivatives are therefore a contract for differences, that are cash settled, and do not result in physical delivery or exchange of assets.

The exception would obviously be a futures contract on an organized exchange where physical delivery is specified - if the open position is not closed before maturity. Even then only a tiny fraction of all open positions end up being settled physically at maturity.

Now, no matter how large a weather derivative position is it is unlikely to effect the weather. It is quite clearly a side-bet. Like bets on the Super Bowl (unless you bribe the quarterback).

Others like interest rate swaps (IRS) and future rate agreements (FRAs) are spread bets. I could pay floating interest rates and I would receive fixed rates or vice versa. Despite rather large positions of these types of derivatives they do not affect interest rates or the underlying inflation, but are more like insurance. Howevever, even then the buyer or the seller only receives the difference between the two contracts. If one buys floating at 4.50% and sells fixed at 5% p.a., and if interest rates do not change over the next 3, 6, 9, 12-months, then the buyer would get paid 0.50% p.a. annualized from the seller. This is 'a look back option' of sorts as you pay out based on what actually happened. Or on an accrual basis. These are important hedging tools against interest rate exposure for borrowers. But they are clearly not dangerous to the stability of the world's capital markets.

Obviously futures & options, although potential claims on underlying assets, have a limited shelf-life. Futures expire and the gain or loss from the buyer to the seller is net/net a zero sum game. The option is mostly made up of time-value that is a depreciating asset. It deteriorates to null. And if not in the money expires worthless. Good for the seller, bad for the buyer. Whatever the buyer loses the seller gains and vice versa. Important to the individual, but not potentially destabilizing.

Credit derivatives are slightly different because they can be used for hedging, say a bank buys credit protection on a company that they have loaned money to as protection from default. Although as we have seen they do carry a degree of morale hazard.

And like insurance, the seller gets paid up front, unlike interest rate spreads. So there is a larger counterpart risk for the buyer of protection.

In the case of asset backed securities (ABS) like credit card receipts or mortgage backed securities (MBS) if the originator knows they will pass along the risk to the buyer of these ABS/MBS then they might not be as diligent in their lending standards as if their own money was at risk.

Now, I am a big boy. I pay my money and I take my risks. I have lost some serious cash in a pre-IPO deal that I thought was a good idea at the time - green technology, ag-bio-tech, trend towards healthier and more nutritious, etc. - and I still do. But they ran out of money and had to sell themselves on unfavorable conditions to a new buyer who of course got the better deal. My dumb. But it was my choice! No excuses.

So any buyer of the ABS/MBS has the obligation to understand the risks of what they are buying. It is not enough to look at the expected return and decide that because an ABS/MBS pays more than a government bond that it must be a good deal. That is simply BS. So credit derivatives are both a hedging tool and a vehicle to speculate in the hopes of excess returns. They are neither good nor bad, but it depends on how you use them. They do make the market more efficient. That is generally good.

Other types of derivatives may be just taking existing interest rate, FOREX and credit risks and re-packaging them, so that they can be re-sold to buyers that either want bigger risks and potentially higher yields or less risk and lower returns. Re-packaging risk does not change the underlying risk. It merely spreads it around. The question you have to ask yourself then is, who is buying these risks, and do they understand them? If a bank does not want a risk, do you?

So those are some major types of derivatives. None of them seem very scary on their own. Taken together they can still add up to a lot of risk in the system that is very hard to define, much less measure. Spread bets seem pretty safe. I know what my maximum loss is likely to be. Futures & options are fairly plain vanilla. They mature and therefore the risk disappears. Credit derivatives are a mixed blessing. They difuse risk and make the system more efficient, but they can be abused.

What is scary is the use of leverage. Leverage, plus derivative risk means you can magnify the eventual gain as well as the potential loss by 10X or 100X.

But where does leverage come from? Excess money supply created by central banks, and governments that run budget deficits. That is the ultimate source of liquidity and therefore leverage. Drain the money supply and you deflate asset bubbles, including the derivatives risk based on those underlying assets.

We tend to make things more complicated than they are. The basic building blocks are easy enough on their own to understand. We just have to untangle the mess and cut through the jargon.
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby mmasters » Fri 25 May 2007, 11:30:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'E')xcess money supply created by central banks, and governments that run budget deficits.

And the banks have nothing to do with it? ;)
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 25 May 2007, 12:20:53

So what I'm getting from this is that a derivative in itself is not neccessarily a dangerous item other than its inherint risk. So other than some players (Goldman and Sachs et al) losing a lot of book value, the end result doesn't mean much for you or I

Atlhough I can see this as not being completely true, because when a side bet is usually placed, the money is held off to the side till the completion of the bet. if that money however is invested in the stock market till the completion of the bet, then all hell will break lose if 1,000,000,000,000,000 must be withdrawn from the markets to settle up (I'm exaggerating, but even if I'm off by a factor of 1000, thats still an unbelievable amount of money)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')hat is scary is the use of leverage. Leverage, plus derivative risk means you can magnify the eventual gain as well as the potential loss by 10X or 100X.

This part is a different story though, and comes back to the "Printing" question. As a general rule, money printing is a "Zero Sum Gain", meaning that for each dollar borrowed (created), there is an equal obligation to pay it back. This obligation is in the form of an underlying asset + the amount leveraged + interest.

So if a derivative is created (which like any side bet can be created out of thin air), then at 100:1 leverage, a hell of a lot of money has been created. And with interest payments at 100X the underlying asset, even more money must be created to keep the account up to date. A big question then is, where does the money come from to pay this interest? Create another derivative and leverage against it?

The other question I have is that what happens to all this leveraged money when the underlying derivative is devalued (or destroyed). Risk has been hugely undervalued/estimated in the Subprime/Alt-A world. How well has the risk been evaluated in other derivatives. From what I've heard some, are so complicated the risk cannot even be determined

For you and I, if our house burns down, at worst the mortgage is called in, at best, we lose all access to further credit. This could be managed except if we've leveraged ourselves 100:1 we're probably using credit to pay the interest (as some FBs are doing already) then we're doomed. What were to happen if the Big Wigs where to go through this (considering the huge underlying risks in derivatives)
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Re: Why is everyone Printing

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 May 2007, 09:15:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'E')xcess money supply created by central banks, and governments that run budget deficits.

And the banks have nothing to do with it? ;)


Been there. Done that. Not going there again.

One effect of derivatives on money supply and global credit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Money matters
A second, and potentially just as serious, problem could be the effect of derivatives on the global supply of credit. David Roche, of Independent Strategy, argues that derivatives have created a form of liquidity outside the control of central bankers. “It is pretty obvious that if one can buy a security that represents an asset for 3-5% of its value, an awful lot of liquidity has been freed up,” he says. “Derivatives have led to many more assets and liabilities being created. By reducing the cost of buying assets, you increase the demand.”

People tend to think of two types of money: narrow money (notes and coins) and broad money (bank accounts and other kinds of assets). Mr Roche says this structure is like an inverted pyramid, where the top layer is derivatives, worth more than nine times global GDP. Credit derivatives are only a small part of this, but already the amounts involved are staggering. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the nominal amount of credit-default swaps had reached $20 trillion by June last year. With volumes almost doubling every year since 2000, some reckon the CDS market will soon be worth more than $30 trillion .

This derivatives “money” is not being used to buy food, clothes or cars—which is why there has been no general pick-up in inflation. But it has been used to inflate asset prices, Mr Roche argues.

The danger is things might go into reverse. A rising cost of capital (perhaps from inflation worries) or a rise in risk aversion (due to a pick-up in defaults) might be the culprit. If liquidity falls throughout the system, derivatives will take the biggest hit. But the result, if derivatives have been pumping up the demand for assets, could be a sharp fall in asset prices.

That makes the naughty or nice question hard to answer. So far, credit derivatives have shown their nice side. Their explosive growth has come against a background of generally benign economic conditions, with only modest recessions and low or falling interest rates. Indeed, derivatives have helped produce those benign conditions, by removing some of the financial constraints on growth.

But it is in the nature of capitalism to test new ideas to destruction and to use new instruments as the basis of speculative excess. Nobody will be sure how robust credit derivatives are until they have been tested in a severe economic or financial downturn. And that is not something anyone should wish for.
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This is the crux of the question in my opinion as derivatives pertain to money supply growth and central banks as the traditional gate keepers of that growth through primary margin requirements and the cost of money (i.e. real interest rates).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndeed, derivatives have helped produce those benign conditions, by removing some of the financial constraints on growth.
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