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Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

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Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby sylviah » Tue 22 May 2007, 10:45:08

A good friend of mine (who is, as yet, not entirely convinced of the reality of peak oil) is on a regimen of pills that is basically keeping her alive. Without it, she estimates she would probably live a few months tops before her body would graudally but definitively shut down.

Short of stockpiling enough medication to last her the rest of her life, which would be impractical and way too expensive to even contemplate, what should she do? She's completely healthy now, the medication keeps her entirely functional. She's young, healthy, gainfully employed...

It's one thing to think about getting myself and my family ready for peak oil. We're all healthy and would only require food and shelter to survive, really. But what about people like her, and people with disabilities, and elderly people, and people with heart conditions who function fine as long as they can drive to work, but would honestly not be able to ride a bike/walk...

And I'm not looking for a strong-will-survive answer, or anything with the word "culled" in it, please. I'd just like to hear if other people have encountered similar problems, and what they're doing about it.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Lore » Tue 22 May 2007, 11:16:09

I know your not looking for a strong-will-survive answer, but it is rather obvious, isn't it?

We've built our society on being able to sustain our lives by artificial means through our technological advances, which have become increasingly sophisticated and very dependent on the fragile and complex tools which created them. Remove the tools and you eliminate the life support, just that simple.

There is not much to be done if things were to go that far south, other than to concentrate on living out the time you have as best you can. Which is all any of us can expect.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 May 2007, 16:44:13

Well, what % of her income goes to paying for these medications?

And would she be willing to purchase them if they doubled in price? Tripled?

Medicine production is and will continue to be a very high priority, because the people who need medicine actually need it.

The energy cost of producing medicines that have already been discovered is extremely minimal.

The Real Cost of Your Prescription Drugs

Celebrex 100 mg
Consumer price (100 tablets): $130.27
Cost of general active ingredients: $0.60
Percent markup: 21,712%

Lipitor 20 mg
Consumer Price (100 tablets): $272.37
Cost of general active ingredients: $5.80
Percent markup: 4,696%

Prozac 20 mg
Consumer price (100 tablets) : $247.47
Cost of general active ingredients: $0.11
Percent markup: 224,973%

Heck, factor in $10,000/barrel oil. I don't think the costs associated with producing medications will change much.

Also, buy generic drugs from Canada and save yourself a small fortune.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby JPL » Tue 22 May 2007, 19:19:10

Ouch. There are many ways of preparing for the future but I think that a lot of people here (I mean this group) are actually trying to escape reality rather than confront it (grin).

Death is the reality that confront us all in the end and although we might like to think that we are playing chess whilst we are alive, really it is more like poker, and the game can end at any moment.

But none of us - even in so-called 'developed' societies - have lost contact with our ancestors sufficiently that we can totally deny the Spirituality that every culture has at its background. I have no idea what religion your friend is from, but I would say, have trust in society & healthcare but also remember our collective Holy Books. They were written for a reason - there is guidence there for your friend.

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The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before


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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Lore » Tue 22 May 2007, 19:27:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ell, what % of her income goes to paying for these medications?

And would she be willing to purchase them if they doubled in price? Tripled?

Medicine production is and will continue to be a very high priority, because the people who need medicine actually need it.

The energy cost of producing medicines that have already been discovered is extremely minimal.

The Real Cost of Your Prescription Drugs

Celebrex 100 mg
Consumer price (100 tablets): $130.27
Cost of general active ingredients: $0.60
Percent markup: 21,712%

Lipitor 20 mg
Consumer Price (100 tablets): $272.37
Cost of general active ingredients: $5.80
Percent markup: 4,696%

Prozac 20 mg
Consumer price (100 tablets) : $247.47
Cost of general active ingredients: $0.11
Percent markup: 224,973%

Heck, factor in $10,000/barrel oil. I don't think the costs associated with producing medications will change much.

Also, buy generic drugs from Canada and save yourself a small fortune.


I don't think that was the answer, assuming that the ability to create even generics will be impossible.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Lore » Tue 22 May 2007, 21:44:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', 'a')fter peak no meds

Get on a serious exercise and weight loss program TODAY go to your doc and ask him you are serious what is the safest fastest way that you with your conditions can calorie restrict and how much can you safely exercise?

get your weight off, stop smoking exercise and hurry.
stop caffiene drinks and chocolate and get off all red meat soon as possible. do what you can you could survive and you certainly will feel better now.


What's the rush? We will all be on the Darfur Diet when the time comes!
Last edited by Lore on Tue 22 May 2007, 21:47:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 May 2007, 23:03:02

Well, drug companies have an interesting business model.

They spend billions to develop a drug that may or may not work.

If it fails, they lose billions.

If it works, they have to make a boatload of money as quickly as possible before the patent runs out and they get undercut by generics/competitors.

We aren't paying for a pill, we're paying for science that went into that pill.

So if they decide to cut back on R&D (because Peak Oil has somehow reduced the need for new medications), they can cut the costs of their current line of medications significantly without hurting their profit margins.

The current drug companies simply got lucky. Every week I hear about some new start-up drug company that goes out of business when its wonder drug fails to work in some clinical trial.

Energy is a very small % of a drug company's operating expenses. I wouldn't be overly concerned about a stoppage of production of a widely needed drug.

However, transport disruptions are likely to happen so it doesn't hurt to stockpile the generic form of the drug.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 May 2007, 23:36:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('purcatty', 'S')ounds good except for one thing
You can buy them cheaper in Mexico and Canada.
how does that fit in?

its the distributors that are making the killing.


If the powder costs 60 cents for a prescription that retails for $130, does it really matter if you sell it for $130 or $100 or $75?

Medications cost a lot of money because we have to pay for the R&D that goes into producing these drugs and we have to pay to subsidize all of the failed drugs.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby manu » Wed 23 May 2007, 01:36:08

If she is young and healthy, she shouldnt need any meds. She should eat better, not diet. She should exercise every day. There are herbs and herbal formulas that one can take. They have been on the planet for millions of years and will be here after PO.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby worrier » Wed 23 May 2007, 01:50:44

While many drugs will probably last beyond their official use by date, they will eventually deteriate over a few years so you can stockpile for only so long. Also, some drugs need refridgeration, like diabetes drugs, so the outcome wont be good for many diabetics.

I think there would be some natural alternatives to some drugs, St Johns Wort for depression, didn't they used to use adrenaline for asthma? Would there be some way of producing that? I'd be interested to hear what Smallpoxgirl had to say on the subject.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Pablo2079 » Wed 23 May 2007, 02:01:41

Caffeine works for asthma... not sure about adrenaline.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby manu » Wed 23 May 2007, 02:07:05

Valarium is also a herb used for depression. Generally though, you need a lifestyle change. That includes the type of food you eat. Usually people eat the wrong foods, junk and fast foods, drink artificial sugar drinks and are stressed out. Also they mix the wrong foods, like eating ice cream after eating a big meal. Or they eat foods out of season. Like alot of fruits in the wintertime. Also they are not grounded. People used to walk alot more and live on the ground, not up 20 stories in the air. We fly, race around in cars, trains, buses. All of this throws our metabolism off. It is an un-natural lifestyle so it takes its toll on the body and mind. Before pharmacutical drugs people were taking herbs for thousands of years and generally they lived as long. Esp. if you take abortion and figure that into how long people live. In this age a hundred years is a long life.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 23 May 2007, 09:13:40

When PO hits herbal remedies that can be grown at home will come back big time.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby manu » Wed 23 May 2007, 09:33:33

Yes, acually they have been making a comeback since the late sixtes, but recently even more so.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby sylviah » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:09:20

Thanks for all your responses.

To clarify: my friend is not convinced of the gravity of peak oil, so she's not out looking for ways to make sure she has her medication in case of society-wide emergency, so I'm doing the best I can to figure it out for her, working with my limited knowledge of the drugs and dosage that she's currently on.

And yes, she is young and healthy, but has no thyroid because of a previous bout of thyroid cancer, and relies on her hormone replacement meds to keep her alive. I haven't been able to find an herbal remedy that can stand in for thyroid functions, but if anyone knows of any, let me know. So far all I've found is a natural remedy made out of dried up, powdered thyroids. Which I'm pretty sure I won't be able to grow in my herb garden, so. :)

I guess I need to convince her of the gravity of the situation, really, so she can hoard enough for the short-term, and then work on getting some connections in the underground prescription drug market for the long-term... :)
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 29 May 2007, 16:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sylviah', 'T')hanks for all your responses.

To clarify: my friend is not convinced of the gravity of peak oil, so she's not out looking for ways to make sure she has her medication in case of society-wide emergency, so I'm doing the best I can to figure it out for her, working with my limited knowledge of the drugs and dosage that she's currently on.

And yes, she is young and healthy, but has no thyroid because of a previous bout of thyroid cancer, and relies on her hormone replacement meds to keep her alive. I haven't been able to find an herbal remedy that can stand in for thyroid functions, but if anyone knows of any, let me know. So far all I've found is a natural remedy made out of dried up, powdered thyroids. Which I'm pretty sure I won't be able to grow in my herb garden, so. :)

I guess I need to convince her of the gravity of the situation, really, so she can hoard enough for the short-term, and then work on getting some connections in the underground prescription drug market for the long-term... :)

Thyroxine, if that is a medication which your friend is using, is rather trivial synthetic compound.
Correctly stored (tightly sealed bottle, in exclusion of light and moisture and below 25*C and prefferably around 5*C) it should be stable for few decades.
It can be bought cheaply in reasonably large amounts from several chemical manufactures or laboratory chemical suppliers.
Such supply (say 10g or so bottle) will surely be enough for lifelong treatment (assuming daily dose of 0.1mg, as often prescribed).
With the aid of Eppendorf pipette and accurate four decimal places balance small amounts would be easy to distribute on sugar cubes in correct dose amounts as need arise.
Say 10mg could be weighed and dissolved in 100 mL of solvent (ethanol will do nicely) and amounts of 0.1mL of solution distributed with Eppendorf pipette on 1000 sugar cubes and cubes dried in warm place for an hour or two and then stored in airtight containers, preferably (but not mandatory) in the fridge.
Now we have about 3 years supply of "pills".
As you can see, it is relatively easy for your friend to cater for any shortages, but she should purchase bulk supply from a laboratory chemical supplier NOW.

Disclaimer: This is not a recomended medical practice and your GP would not advice to carry it on. You should listen to your GP.
It is presented here only as a theoretical example.
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Re: Life-sustaining medication: will it be available?

Unread postby MacG » Tue 29 May 2007, 17:20:56

For an empirical answer: Look at Mogadishu, Somalia. Whatever you can get in Mogadishu, you will be able to get in a PostPeak world. When the ultimate market forces set in and Charles (Big Chuck) Darwin have his say, you will be able to get the most amazing things. If you just desire them enough. And can pay. Or have relatives who can pay.

Last time I looked there were five mobile phone operators in Mog. Completely unregulated of course. And if you want broadband you usually get connected the same day you order. And that is in the hellhole of Mog, they tell me it's much better in Hargesia.
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