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"The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy"

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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby MacG » Mon 21 May 2007, 17:17:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'O')h dear...

EDIT: And what is scary is I don't think this article fully takes the world peak oil production into account, only the UK's. I think times in the UK might be harder then even a doomer like myself believed.


Indeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years. When looking at tumors in the pathology lab, the center of a tumor is often affected by necrosis, while it was a metastasis or three that actually killed the organism.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Gazzatrone » Mon 21 May 2007, 17:25:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'O')h dear...

EDIT: And what is scary is I don't think this article fully takes the world peak oil production into account, only the UK's. I think times in the UK might be harder then even a doomer like myself believed.


Indeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years. When looking at tumors in the pathology lab, the center of a tumor is often affected by necrosis, while it was a metastasis or three that actually killed the organism.


Oh please. Talk about Sins of the Fathers. Why don't you go the whole hog and blame the Africans for migrating from Africa when Man first became Hunter-Gatherer.

The problem isn't when it started or who did what. The fundemental problem is what Mankind hasn't done in order to navigate us safely through this.
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Gazzatrone » Mon 21 May 2007, 17:28:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')an anyone find the British version of the STFU clause?


That I think that is STB.

Stop Talking Bollocks.


Lol, thanks, I needed a laugh after all this doom.


One tries.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Ludi » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:34:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'I')ndeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started -



Nah, it was the Romans.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby MacG » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:45:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'I')ndeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started -



Nah, it was the Romans.


It went down for quite a while after the Romans called it a day.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby ohanian » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:45:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'O')h dear...

EDIT: And what is scary is I don't think this article fully takes the world peak oil production into account, only the UK's. I think times in the UK might be harder then even a doomer like myself believed.


Indeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years. When looking at tumors in the pathology lab, the center of a tumor is often affected by necrosis, while it was a metastasis or three that actually killed the organism.


I'm sorry. Can you explain the following terms to me.

(1) pathology

(2) necrosis

(3) metastasis

I think you are trying to tell me something but those terms prevented me from understanding what you are trying to communicate to me.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby MacG » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:49:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'O')h dear...

EDIT: And what is scary is I don't think this article fully takes the world peak oil production into account, only the UK's. I think times in the UK might be harder then even a doomer like myself believed.


Indeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years. When looking at tumors in the pathology lab, the center of a tumor is often affected by necrosis, while it was a metastasis or three that actually killed the organism.


Oh please. Talk about Sins of the Fathers. Why don't you go the whole hog and blame the Africans for migrating from Africa when Man first became Hunter-Gatherer.

The problem isn't when it started or who did what. The fundemental problem is what Mankind hasn't done in order to navigate us safely through this.


Well, we kept the same system as our fathers. And their fathers before them. Interest based fractional reserve banking applies the same logic as cancer. Infinite exponential growth. It's just that the physical world wont comply indefinitely.

Edit: Cancer works just fine. For quite some time. A tremendous success story all of it. Until, just suddenly, it's not a success anymore Then it's just about death all of it.

Exponential growth in a limited world is NOT an eternal option. Period.

If yout father did something bad, maybe you should try something different?
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby SevenTen » Mon 21 May 2007, 20:55:24

Damn hunter gatherers! Should have stayed hunting and gathering. Don't seem to be any good at civilization-building. :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', 'T')he fundemental problem is what Mankind hasn't done in order to navigate us safely through this.

Point us in the direction of someone who has clear enough vision to lead us through the clusterfuck. :)
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Gazzatrone » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'E')xponential growth in a limited world is NOT an eternal option. Period.


Well Duh! Tell us something 99.9% of us here doesn't know. Blaming our present position solely on the UK is ridiculous. Exponential growth is how Mankind has always functioned. Period.

To understand exponential growth from your Fathers point of view, I suggest you watch this lecture, by the God-like genius that is Dr. Albert Bartlett. Take particular note of the tale of the bacteria in the pint glass and you will have your father's understanding. A far better analogy than calling one nation a cancer.

As I suggested it is not the doing that is the killer, it is the not doing. From personal experience, cancer, if caught early enough can be treated, if not cured and awareness of its causes through change in lifestyle, even prevented.

With regards to your prejudice, (which it is) for the UK and supposed genesis of Exponential Growth in 1694. (please state where you got date date from)

Quote Obi Wan Kenobi
"Who's the more foolish - the fool, or the fool who follows him?"
THE FUTURE IS HISTORY!
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby cube » Mon 21 May 2007, 21:56:57

In California we have a program that you can sign up for (voluntarily) where the utility company installs a radio kill switch to your AC (air conditioning).

During the summer time when temperatures soar and everybody decides to turn on their AC ---> the utility company can cut off your AC to prevent the whole system from overloading. Hopefully this will prevent future blackouts.

-----------------------

anybody here still believes electric cars will be the future please raise your hand. :P
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"The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy

Postby Tyler_JC » Mon 21 May 2007, 23:54:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')anybody here still believes [s]electric cars[/s] Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be the future please raise your hand. :P


[smilie=icon_thumright.gif]

Blackouts generally only occur during the peak load hours in the afternoon.

If we charged our cars at night using cheap night time power and then used our cars as generators during the peak hours, there goes your blackout danger.

Instead of having a big central storage solution, we can have tens of millions of individual storage solutions.

Electricity is easy, liquid transport fuel and chemical feedstocks, those are the tricky ones.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby What_Went_Wrong » Mon 21 May 2007, 23:55:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')n California we have a program that you can sign up for (voluntarily) where the utility company installs a radio kill switch to your AC (air conditioning).

During the summer time when temperatures soar and everybody decides to turn on their AC ---> the utility company can cut off your AC to prevent the whole system from overloading. Hopefully this will prevent future blackouts.

I'm sure people are falling over themselves to sign up for that.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby MacG » Tue 22 May 2007, 00:12:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', ' ')
With regards to your prejudice, (which it is) for the UK and supposed genesis of Exponential Growth in 1694. (please state where you got date date from)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_England
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy

Postby cube » Tue 22 May 2007, 03:55:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '.')...
[smilie=icon_thumright.gif]

Blackouts generally only occur during the peak load hours in the afternoon.

If we charged our cars at night using cheap night time power and then used our cars as generators during the peak hours, there goes your blackout danger.
....
You're analysis is flawed Batman! Have we not learned from history?
Image

Something can only be "cheap" if it's like an unwanted bastard child. Once everybody jumps onto something then it no longer becomes cheap.

oil used to be cheap --> then suburbia was invented and that forever ended the "problem" of cheap oil.

natural gas used to be cheap --> Once natural gas fired power plants sprung up like mushrooms on a poorly maintained lawn it ceased to be cheap. In fact it's probably the 2nd most expensive fuel source known to humanity.

If even a fraction of society started plugging in their electric cars/ plug in hybrids at night then night time electricity wouldn't be cheap anymore.

You didn't honestly think you were going to wiggle your way out of avoiding impending doom and destruction for humanity did you? :-D
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Gazzatrone » Tue 22 May 2007, 08:36:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', ' ')
With regards to your prejudice, (which it is) for the UK and supposed genesis of Exponential Growth in 1694. (please state where you got date date from)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_England


From that I guess you never bothered watching the video of Dr Bartlett.

And please extrapolate from the link where it mentions the Formula for Exponential Growth was conceived. Which was your original statement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'I')ndeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years.


Nowhere does it mention this on that page. The founding of the Bank of England was about finacial control of a country's wealth.

Exponential Growth goes far beyond your point of view which is based on a prejudice.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby MacG » Tue 22 May 2007, 17:32:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', ' ')
With regards to your prejudice, (which it is) for the UK and supposed genesis of Exponential Growth in 1694. (please state where you got date date from)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_England


From that I guess you never bothered watching the video of Dr Bartlett.

And please extrapolate from the link where it mentions the Formula for Exponential Growth was conceived. Which was your original statement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'I')ndeed. The UK is the very center of the tumor. Where the formula for exponential growth got started - already in 1694 - and then spread over the world for over 300 years. [/qung ote]

Nowhere does it mention this on that page. The founding of the Bank of England was about finacial control of a country's wealth.

Exponential Growth goes far beyond your point of view which is based on a prejudice.


No, I did not bother to watch the vid. Read the printed version ages ago (he's done the same presentation since the 70's) and I agree 100% with the good Dr Bartlett.

There is a central nervous system in our societies, telling us what is worth to do and what is not worth to do, and that CNS is called "money". "Money" is not a force of nature - it's a completely man-made thing, and it has taken a lot of different forms and shapes in different societies.

The system we are running since 1694 require infinite exponential growth, which is a pretty Bad Thing if you agree with Dr Bartlett.

There are plenty of links and discussions in this forum if you want to gain a deeper understanding, but my personal favorites are a book by Bernard Lietaer and the posts from JCarvingblock over at GiM. Those are deep guys. And dont forget Silvio Gesell and Edwin Riegel. Invaluable contributions.

This is not easy stuff which will fly into your mouth ready to swallow - it requires quite some chewing. Please don't blame me - I'm just the messenger.

Ed: Sp
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Tyler_JC » Tue 22 May 2007, 17:59:29

Cube, it doesn't have to be cheap.

Even charging up a plug-in hybrid electric car at peak electricity rates costs less than one gallon of gasoline.

Eventually the market would make electricity more expensive, sure. But the price of electricity has a long way to go before becoming a more expensive fuel for cars than gasoline.

Moreover, there is a rather large surplus of electricity at night. Using the extra electrical production capacity at night to charge up cars seems like a reasonable solution to the overcapacity-at-night problem.

These cars would help broker the difference between electricity shortfalls during the day and electricity surpluses at night.

Think of them as batteries that move people.

Image

There's a chart of British electricity consumption in some random town. You can get a general sense of what I'm talking about if you think about filling in the extra space under the peak with car-charging. (not that we would even come close to filling in that space, even if everyone had an electric car)
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby JPL » Tue 22 May 2007, 18:21:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
Surely you can shut the Green Lobby up for a couple of years.


No, we ain't shutting up. Mainly because you are now (finally) talking about the same issues we have been ranting about for decades. If I can just sidetrack things a moment and give the green answer, it is this:

The western world right now has plenty of energy. Even with Peak Oil, we need to go questing for another energy source right now about as much as we need a hole in the head. 90% of the UK's energy is wasted before it is ever used (half of the loss is in wasteful centralised production & transmission - the rest goes in heating, lighting & powering hugely inefficient buildings, schools, shops and factories).

The idea that cheep energy (in Europe & the UK) is somehow both a right of man and a status-symbol is a myth that was born out of post-war optomism and it really has no foundation in fact. The one exception possibly being the UK & Holland during the glory-days of the North Sea. Well that's over now. It doesn't mean the end of our civilisation but it does mean we have to face the following facts:

1) We waste most of the energy we create - before it ever does us any good.
2) To think that the answer to this problem is to find some more energy - so we can waste it even quicker - is just plain nuts.

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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Twilight » Tue 22 May 2007, 18:56:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'M')oreover, there is a rather large surplus of electricity at night. Using the extra electrical production capacity at night to charge up cars seems like a reasonable solution to the overcapacity-at-night problem.

It's not quite that simple.

First of all, the night-time low load period is needed to maintain cooling cycles on overloaded equipment. The situation in the UK is less dire than it is in the US, but there are always bottlenecks and the night is a life-saver. Remember that since no-one has really planned for mass electric car ownership, no-one has planned for not having night-time low load whenever you need it. Once it is no longer there, assumptions change and comfortable old arrangements need to be reassessed. Fixing all of that requires capital expenditure in excess of what is permitted by the regulator, so it is not a problem that can be solved in under a decade.

Secondly, there is no surplus of electricity as such because the coal and gas plants are ramped down, dispatch is matched to predicted load. With night-time load predictably flat, it is largely left to the nuclear baseload. If the coal and gas plants were ramped up with no load to feed, you would have one hell of a system frequency (then network stability) problem. Thus there is not a vast amount of energy being wasted.

What you do have, is surplus of available generating capacity. This distinction is very important to make. If you want to fill in that dip with electric car charging, you are going to run coal and gas plants at a higher output and burn more fossil fuel. Obviously you are already burning some just by idling, but when the car battery chargers kick in, the power plant people are going to hit the gas pedal. This means reliance on imported oil for transport ultimately shifts to imported coal and gas. All this would do is move the problem to a different sector without solving it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'T')he idea that cheep energy (in Europe & the UK) is somehow both a right of man and a status-symbol is a myth that was born out of post-war optomism and it really has no foundation in fact. The one exception possibly being the UK & Holland during the glory-days of the North Sea. Well that's over now.

Which is where this bit comes in. This bit is right. Instead of moving energy consumption from one sector to another (at the end of the day it is all non-renewable BTUs), we should eliminate necessity. Not to save the world, but because cheap and plentiful energy is a drug dependency, and if your supply is compromised, it is better to break up the withdrawal symptoms into nice managable chunks than shiver in the dark.
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Re: "The idea of the lights going out is not a fantasy&

Postby Starvid » Tue 22 May 2007, 19:50:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') say we fake an electricity shortage, let a couple of cities (especially cities that have traditionally opposed new power plants) fall into the dark every now and then, gouge consumers with higher electricity bills, and then ram a nuke/LNG/coal/wind/tidal/solar energy bill through Parliament.

It's not that difficult too accomplish.

Steady, steady now, you are giving me Ideas. :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember that since no-one has really planned for mass electric car ownership, no-one has planned for not having night-time low load whenever you need it.

Don't be such a negative nancy, it will all be great fun! :-D

A mad dash for new power plants, transformer stations, power lines and everything! Just like in the 50's, 60's, 70's and 80's! Massive capital spending on new massive projects, this is the upside of peak oil!

Things will be interesting.
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