[Sys1]

Fears over looming energy crisis in UK

An article from TIMESONLINE which reminds me Olduvai theory : Within 8 years, electricity could disappear in UK as North sea production is collapsing.

[Newsseeker]

This article is pure doomer porn!!! Right on!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he scale of the challenge is immense. By 2015, Britain’s generating capacity could be cut by a third as ageing coal and nuclear power stations are closed. Britain is also moving from being self-sufficient in oil and gas as North Sea production declines. In 2005, the UK became a net importer of gas. By 2010, imports could account for 40% of British gas needs; by 2020, 80% to 90%.

[thylacine]

I don't doubt that things are serious. But, I reckon the timing of this story has more to do with the UK govt trying to push through the next phase of nuclear power stations.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2084016,00.html

[steam_cannon]

"By 2010, imports could account for 40% of British gas needs; by 2020, 80% to 90%." - Article

I like this, if there is oil other countries have to export, they COULD achieve these numbers... Yeah, more likely the light are going out. However regarding their closing aging coal plants. I'm sure after a few blackouts they'll be putting up billboards:
"Coal, it's what keeps the lights on!"
"Nuclear, it keeps you warm in the winter!"
I made up the nuclear slogan, but the coal slogan is from a billboard I saw in Virginia

Yeah, great doomer porn! I wonder if their analyst reads peak oil sites...

[MattSavinar]

[Gazzatrone]

With regards to the Guardian article:

I've mentioned the Class-structure readership of the printed press in the UK and this is classic middle-class Fair Trade coffee crew NIMBY-ism. But I can gaurantee you the first people to be whinging and moaning about not being able to have electricity to make their morning cappucino and croissants.

"One can't possible bear having a wind turbine on the Norfolk fens. It would spoil ones view while I stay in my country retreat as I wind down from a heavy weeks work in the city. Darling the Gaggia's not working, and I need an espresso. oh! Darling...nothing's working" YADDA YADDA.

You can also gaurantee that these will be the people using their Chelsea Tractors to barricade their streets in an effort to protect themselves from a class war when TSHTF.

Noone ever told these people that they can't have it both ways.

[TheDude]

I like this posted reply:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he answer is, of course, renewable energy systems that can deliver base load electricity 24/7 - but nobody is prepared to go beyond a plethora of intermittent schemes - wind, wave, hydro, tidal etc.

[billp]

New Mexico is growing concerned about natural gas and electricity futures.

Stockholder attended his first ever energy meeting.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thylacine', 'I') don't doubt that things are serious. But, I reckon the timing of this story has more to do with the UK govt trying to push through the next phase of nuclear power stations.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,2084016,00.html

[Tyler_JC]

First off, how much of British electricity consumption is unnecessary for sustaining the British standard of living? And how much of the electricity used to maintain Britain's extremely lavish standard of living is actually necessary for sustaining human life?

Double the price of electricity (by government mandate) and require more energy efficient products. Electricity consumption per capita will decline and can decline quite dramatically without causing a permanent depression or mass starvation.



The picture is somewhat difficult to read so I'll explain. The top orange line is per capita electricity consumption in the USA as a whole while the yellow line tracks California. The green line is New Zealand and the dotted green line is what New Zealand's future would look like if they implemented a particular kind of energy conservation.

Basically the graph shows that in the 25 year period of 1976 to 2001, electricity consumption per capita in California was essentially flat, despite a booming economy.

So it's certainly possible to maintain your economy (heck, even grow it considerably) without increasing electricity consumption.

Moreover, why should natural gas run out any time soon? Build a dozen LNG terminals and you can flood the UK with cheap natural gas from the Middle East and Russia. And if you tell people that the alternative to building an LNG plant is rolling blackouts (and give them a taste of those blackouts), they'll cave in and let you build them.

Peak Uranium is way out into the future and the cost of fuel is a tiny % of a nuke plants operating budget. Again, allow a few blackouts and the British will cave in and let you build a couple dozen nuke plants on some sheep pasture in Scotland somewhere.

Not to mention the dozens of alternative/renewable energy sources that can produce electricity at a relatively inexpensive price. I'm not too worried about blackouts do to a lack of base load electrical production. However, we might get blackouts at the peak hours and if the equipment falls apart.

The problems associated with Peak Oil mostly consist of finding a replacement liquid transport fuel and a replacement chemical feedstock. We could maintain our electricity grid with 5% of today's current oil production. But we couldn't run suburbia or our throw away culture on that fraction. Thus the need for increased awareness about the issue and preparation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ithin 8 years, electricity could disappear in UK as North sea production is collapsing.

[Twilight]

I see what you are saying, but we can't conserve our way out of generation and load being in the wrong places and distribution falling to pieces. This is only partly a resource issue. A large part of the problem is logistics. These were put in place during the 1960s, the country has moved on, the system isn't being allowed to move on. Apparently it's too ugly or dangerous, so while stuff can be demolished, replacements often cannot be built. When you find you can't do a like-for-like swap of a coal or nuke plant, you really need to scrap the rules.

It is not purely a gas issue. The coal and nuclear plants are getting old, they are going to be shut independently of the gas picture.

Mandating energy efficient products is not going to work, by the way. People love their always-on-standby consumer electronics far too much, they bought them on credit in the first place, replacing the lot would entail expanding personal debt and pissing people off even more. There have been voices calling for years for a look at domestic electrical product design, I actually agree with them, but sadly they carry no weight. We could in theory force sweeping changes on foreign manufacturers, but as a market we are not important enough to merit changes. Only EU legislation would carry sufficient economic weight. Good luck agreeing that. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see this happen, but the impact on consumer spending makes this option almost unthinkable to our politicians. I am realistic about the chances of change there.

The solution is a very broad range of measures - LNG, nuclear, wind, tidal, and being allowed to connect the stuff. One project near London failed to gain approval because the generators were permitted, but the connection wasn't. That tells you the system is broken.

I agree on the effects of early blackouts, by the way. That would change the debate completely. The problem is, severe supply disruption would only begin when the time for action has passed.

[Gazzatrone]

Simple solution is round up all the filthy rats and mice that festoon our urban environments and put them in wheels attached to dynamos.

[Tyler_JC]

I say we fake an electricity shortage, let a couple of cities (especially cities that have traditionally opposed new power plants) fall into the dark every now and then, gouge consumers with higher electricity bills, and then ram a nuke/LNG/coal/wind/tidal/solar energy bill through Parliament.

It's not that difficult too accomplish.

Heck, if you can convince an entire country to go to war, invade a sovereign harmless country, and then continue the war for 4 years while spending hundreds of billions of dollars and killing untold hundreds of thousands....

Surely you can shut the Green Lobby up for a couple of years.

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')eck, if you can convince an entire country to go to war, invade a sovereign harmless country, and then continue the war for 4 years while spending hundreds of billions of dollars and killing untold hundreds of thousands....

Surely you can shut the Green Lobby up for a couple of years.

[What_Went_Wrong]

Oh dear...

EDIT: And what is scary is I don't think this article fully takes the world peak oil production into account, only the UK's. I think times in the UK might be harder then even a doomer like myself believed.

[roccman]

here's the shut the fuck up clause in the USA National Environmental Policy Act.

TITLE 40--PROTECTION OF ENVIRONMENT

CHAPTER V--COUNCIL ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

PART 1506--OTHER REQUIREMENTS OF NEPA--Table of Contents

Sec. 1506.11 Emergencies.

Where emergency circumstances make it necessary to take an action with significant environmental impact without observing the provisions of these regulations, the Federal agency taking the action should consult with the Council about alternative arrangements. Agencies and the Council will limit such arrangements to actions necessary to control the immediate impacts of the emergency. Other actions remain subject to NEPA review.

I expect this clause to come into play...oh next week.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'O')h dear...

[Tyler_JC]

There you go, Roccman.

ANWR will be drilled. Nuclear power plants will be built. Coal will be minded. Uranium will be refined. Tar sands will be converted into oil. Food will be turned into fuel. CO2 in the atmosphere will increase. Life will go on...

May our grandchildren forgive us.

Can anyone find the British version of the STFU clause?

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')an anyone find the British version of the STFU clause?

[What_Went_Wrong]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'C')an anyone find the British version of the STFU clause?