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Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

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Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Denny » Sun 20 May 2007, 11:54:08

It was a bit surprising this past week to see the Canadian dollar go so high. Crude oil has been stable in a $60-$67 range for along time. Precious and base metals have been slipping as of late.

The Australian dollar has not exhibited this same lift, though both Australia and Canada are big in commodities.

Perhaps the currency trades are a leading indicator and a sign of higher commodity prices to come? Or couuld it be anticipated strength to come in the grains complex, which would not lift the Aussie dolalr now due to drought? But, you'd think with the U.S. being the dominant grains producer, that would help the US$.

Seems like a mystery developing.
Last edited by Denny on Sun 20 May 2007, 12:35:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 20 May 2007, 12:05:30

One contributing factor may be because Canada is printing less cash then the US.

Russia (M3): ---------- +49%
India (M3): ------------ +20.3%
China (M2): ----------- +17.2%
New Zealand (M3): -- +18%
Australia (M3): ------- +13%
Great Britain (M4): -- +13%
South Korea (M3): -- +11.3%
USA (M3): ------------- +12% (Est.)
Canada (M3): -------- +10%
Eurozone: ------------ +10%
Japan (M3): ----------- + 6%

"Why is everyone Printing"
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 20 May 2007, 12:20:55

Canadian Economic Growth To Be Best In G7 In 2007: IMF

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Canada's economy is poised to grow by 3.0 per cent next year, giving it the fastest growth among the G7 countries, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook.

Canada's status as a major net exporter of energy will likely be enough to insulate it from the slowdowns that the IMF is forecasting for the U.S. and Europe.


I think the currency is appreciating thanks to strong economic growth in Canada, a budget surplus, and a current account surplus.

The appreciation of the Canadian dollar shouldn't surprise or confuse anyone. The macroeconomic picture of Canada is excellent and improving. If anything, I'm surprised the currency hasn't gained more ground.

Actually, I'm not surprised that it hasn't gained more ground. A slowdown in the USA would have a devastating impact on Canada. According to the CIA Factbook, 85% of Canadian exports end up in the United States. Now, some of those are re-exported to other countries afterwards but clearly Canada is heavily reliant on the US Economy.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 20 May 2007, 13:54:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada is [s]heavily reliant[/s] entirely dependent on the US Economy


Nope. The US's disgraceful approach to Nafta, which boils down to implementing agreements that it finds useful, and ignoring those it feels may hurt it, has forced Canada to find other international markets for it's wood and wheat, etc... We are still reliant on the US and the economic collapse you are facing in the future will be devastating to us, but we will survive and make do while the US becomes indistinguishable from the poorest parts of Mexico.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 20 May 2007, 14:23:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 't')he US becomes indistinguishable from the poorest parts of Mexico.

I disagree. Those Mexicans are used to being poor. The Americans won't accept poverty without a fight. Either they start fighting other countries, or each other. But violence there will be. It will look a lot more like Iraq than Mexico.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 20 May 2007, 14:41:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada is [s]heavily reliant[/s] entirely dependent on the US Economy
Nope. The US's disgraceful approach to Nafta, which boils down to implementing agreements that it finds useful, and ignoring those it feels may hurt it, has forced Canada to find other international markets for it's wood and wheat, etc... We are still reliant on the US and the economic collapse you are facing in the future will be devastating to us, but we will survive and make do while the US becomes indistinguishable from the poorest parts of Mexico.

85% of Canadian exports end up in the United States. 60% of imports into Canada are from the United States. I'm sticking with my original wording. Canada's Economy is heavily reliant on the US Economy.

Peak Oil means higher transport costs, right? Canada uses significantly more energy per capita than the USA. Well then how is Canada going to be a low cost producer of anything if you have to ship it across the Pacific Ocean to reach new costumers?
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 20 May 2007, 15:07:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 't')he US becomes indistinguishable from the poorest parts of Mexico.

I disagree. Those Mexicans are used to being poor. The Americans won't accept poverty without a fight. Either they start fighting other countries, or each other. But violence there will be. It will look a lot more like Iraq than Mexico.


Okay, Hairsplitter--It'll look like Mexico, minus sombreros and ponchos, plus machine guns. :lol:

Canada will be like, uhhhh...hmmm...Like it was in the recessionary '70's. I can't wait. I'm practising becoming a complete slacker, now.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby thuja » Sun 20 May 2007, 15:18:04

Soon one Canadian dollar will equal one US dollar...

Why- that's unamerican!!
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby JohnFarson1973 » Sun 20 May 2007, 17:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada is [s]heavily reliant[/s] entirely dependent on the US Economy


Not so fast Skippy.

While the US is struggling to grow it's economy Canada's is steaming ahead by comparison.

[web]http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=f26252f1-3d27-4e74-a4e1-e24f808b1f48&k=1693[/web]

There's some important factors attributing to the rise of the Canadian $. Resources make up a large portion or our economy (namely oil, bought by you guys), we have our economic shit together, and, the US doesn't have it's economic shit together.
A lot of the rise of the Loonie comes at the expense of the pathetic Greenback.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby BastardSquad » Mon 21 May 2007, 01:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnFarson1973', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada is [s]heavily reliant[/s] entirely dependent on the US Economy
Not so fast Skippy. While the US is struggling to grow it's economy Canada's is steaming ahead by comparison. There's some important factors attributing to the rise of the Canadian $. Resources make up a large portion or our economy (namely oil, bought by you guys), we have our economic shit together, and, the US doesn't have it's economic shit together.
A lot of the rise of the Loonie comes at the expense of the pathetic Greenback.

Hmmmmmm,sounds to me likeCanada [s] might be[/s] is definately stockpiling wmd's! :roll:
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Declan » Mon 21 May 2007, 10:20:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BastardSquad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnFarson1973', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anada is [s]heavily reliant[/s] entirely dependent on the US Economy
Not so fast Skippy.While the US is struggling to grow it's economy Canada's is steaming ahead by comparison.
Hmmmmmm,sounds to me likeCanada [s] might be[/s] is definately stockpiling wmd's! :roll:

No, no WMDs; just a lot of rifles, shotguns and hand guns. Comeon over and find out how 33 million people can bring the smack down on 300 million, again. Last time you guys tried messing with our country we bitch slappled you and then burned down the White House. [smilie=adios.gif] [smilie=thefinger.gif]

PS. The main reason for the Canadian dollar apreaciation is the fact that we hold a lot of the world's resources, including 80% of the world's drinking water. Don't mess with us or we'll turn off your drinking water.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Denny » Mon 21 May 2007, 11:13:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BastardSquad', 'H')mmmmmm,sounds to me likeCanada [s] might be[/s] is definately stockpiling wmd's! :roll:


Well, if you made up the same list of issues that concerned the U.S. about Iraq back in 2003, we got 'em all:

Nuclear stockpiles - yes
Nuclear enrichment - yes
Nuclear missiles - yes (forced on us as part of NORAD)
Aluminum tubes - yes, in fact all kinds of aluminum stuff
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 21 May 2007, 11:17:50

As amusing as it is to have Canucks dissing Yanks here, please say something related to depletion economics - like oil & gas producers and exporters of mines & minerals have strong currencies - or something, so that I will not have to move this thread to OPEN discussions. Thanks.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 21 May 2007, 18:34:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Nope. The US's disgraceful approach to Nafta, which boils down to implementing agreements that it finds useful, and ignoring those it feels may hurt it, has forced Canada to find other international markets for it's wood and wheat, etc... We are still reliant on the US and the economic collapse you are facing in the future will be devastating to us, but we will survive and make do while the US becomes indistinguishable from the poorest parts of Mexico.


That's how I see it. The US is becoming a fascist South American country, it's not morphing over time into a progressive Western European one. Read Steve Sailor on this (iSteve.com).

When the US decided Europe and England could fuck off, this path was chosen - remember the Founding Fathers wanted to set themselves up as the wealthy elite, slavery and all. The American revolution was not about freedom, other than the freedom to be more stratified and reactionary as a society. You can read Howard Zinn on this.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Newsseeker » Tue 22 May 2007, 08:51:03

Canada and the US are like Chip and Dale, Sonny and Cher, Burt and Lonni, it's impossible to imagine them without each other.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby strider3700 » Tue 22 May 2007, 12:34:53

The fact that our economy is doing so well up here could lead to issues down the road. If the $ stays high or gets much higher the manufacturing sector back east will be hurt so the central bank will want to lower rates and devalue the dollar. This will help along the realestate feeding frenzy that we've currently got going on and long term you just have to look at the states to see where that leads.

At the movies on sunday they had a commercial for 100% mortgages for those people that have nothing but want to buy a house. I don't know if these are technically new up here but it's the first time I've ever seen a commercial for one.

I'm pretty sure our economy is just lagging the states by a year or two.
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Re: Why is the Canadian $ at a 30 year high?

Unread postby Denny » Tue 22 May 2007, 19:05:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'C')anada and the US are like Chip and Dale, Sonny and Cher, Burt and Lonni, it's impossible to imagine them without each other.


Well, only the imaginary couple stated above stuck together. The two real ones split up.
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