[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his probably has much to do with the less energy content in ethanol as compared to RBOB gasoline, and is a symptom of the bigger picture of declining EROEI. The conclusion is especially true if actual miles driven have declined.

[Newsseeker]

If Americans are driving less and fuel consumption is going up then it really doesn't matter now does it? My prediction: TSHTF when there are gas lines this summer.

[shortonoil]

Newsseeker said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f Americans are driving less and fuel consumption is going up then it really doesn't matter now does it? My prediction: TSHTF when there are gas lines this summer.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his probably has much to do with the less energy content in ethanol as compared to RBOB gasoline, and is a symptom of the bigger picture of declining EROEI. The conclusion is especially true if actual miles driven have declined.

[Tanada]

Something to keep in mind, Ethenol has an octane rating around 115 so if you are using E-10/Gasahol you can use 84 octane gasoline in the mixture and still end up with an 87 octane blend. That might be a motivation for some of the refiners on top of the other factors mentioned.

[tmazanec1]

I am shifting my grocery shopping schedule from every four days to every five.

[Cerryl]

More Divers Going it Alone

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore people than ever are driving alone to work as the nation's commuters balk at carpools and mass transit.

Housing and work patterns make it hard for suburban commuters to change their gas-guzzling ways, regardless of fuel prices.

From 2000 to 2005, the share of people driving alone to work increased slightly from 76.3 percent to 77 percent, according to a Census Bureau report released yesterday. Carpooling dropped and the share of commuters using public transportation stayed the same.

In the metropolitan Richmond area, sole control over the car radio and heating or cooling of the car has dipped, from 84 percent in 2000 to 82 percent in 2005, Census Bureau estimates show.

Carpools are slightly more popular, up to 10.2 percent from 8.3 percent of workers age 16 or older. But public transportation is down to 1.7 percent from 2.7 percent. About 3 percent of employees beat the commute by working at home, up from 2.3 percent in 2000.

For most suburban commuters, "it's very hard to find someone to ride with, and it's very hard to find public transportation," said Alan Pisarski, author of "Commuting in America." "There aren't always a lot of options for people."

[savethehumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')There aren't always a lot of options for people."

[joewp]

They are going to be so mad at the people who told them that this lifestyle would continue for 40+ years.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')hey are going to be so mad at the people who told them that this lifestyle would continue for 40+ years.

[emersonbiggins]

Mind you, this survey was conducted in 2005, well before oil prices climbed to their current sustained rates, exempting Katrina, of course.
God only knows why it takes 18 months to gather, assemble and publish data on commuting patterns, but this is the federal government we're talking about, so I digress...

Consider this data released by the APTA regarding ridership increases for 2006 (from 2005):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore than 10 billion trips were taken on buses and rail lines last year, the American Public Transportation Association says in a report to be released Monday.

That's up 2.9% from 2005 and the highest level since 1957. Ridership rose three consecutive years through 2006 and increased 28% in the 10 years since 1996.

The rise in 2006 came as gasoline prices increased, coming within pennies of the all-time record, not adjusted for inflation, reached following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. "Certainly, a lot of the growth last year was with the high gas prices," APTA President William Millar says.

[I_Like_Plants]

If around here is any indication (San Francisco Bay Area) they're going it alone in HUGE friggin' SUVs too. Those things just get bigger and uglier every year, and then there are those things they drive in....

When I take the train it's to avoid parking hassles, not to save on gas. Same with the bus, although I've not ridden the bus here, I keep hoping for a really good reason to though.

[copious.abundance]

--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')...]



Evidence is mounting of a wholesale change in the way Americans commute. Motorists have driven roughly 30 billion fewer miles in the past six months compared with the same period a year ago, according to federal government estimates.

Meanwhile, commuters took 10.3 billion trips on public transportation last year, the most in 50 years — when the population was about 60 percent the current size — according to the American Public Transportation Association. Ridership is up 3.3 percent in the first three months of 2008 and 30 percent since 1995.

Those trends suggest growing numbers of Americans are reaching their tipping points in how much they'll spend for the freedom and luxury of personal automobile transportation.

[...]

[yesplease]

What's really interesting IMO is that according to the EIA's April yoy production/import data, the percentage drop in demand is nearly twice the percent drop in VMT, the point being that it looks like Americans are driving less and driving more efficiently. Looks like we're seeing demand destruction and conservation at work.

[dorlomin]

Brilliant news, BUT are airlines included as mass transit?

[wisconsin_cur]

And since it is a world-wide market does it really matter if other nations are using more gasoline/diesel?

How will we know when world-wide demand is down?

First, I suppose, stockpiles will begin to build.

Then we will begin to see prices go down.

I would not be surprised to see these things. They are not disproof of the fundamental "doomer" position.

I do not know if demand destruction will out pace world-wide depletion rate or not. I do know that depletion is a one way trip and it is time to buckle the seat belt, regardless if the price of gas at the pump turns out to be a roller coaster or a rocket ship.

[frankthetank]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Someone else will burn it, don't worry.

[misterno]

If this demand destruction is true, then why the price of oil is beaking records every week?

I don't get it.

[Kingcoal]

Because the demand destruction isn't enough. The demand destruction is lowering the price, without it, we'd probably have $200/bl by now. As far as demand destruction bringing back cheap oil, forget it.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ransportation consultant Alan Pisarski shares Reich's reluctance to declare the nation in the early stages of a commuter revolution. When looking at modes of travel, scale is important, Pisarski said. Mass transit accounts for only 1 percent of U.S. travel, so if it increases 20 percent, "it's still only 1.2 percent of travel," Pisarski said.

In addition, the recent decline in automobile travel isn't the result of people leaving their cars for public transportation. People are simply deferring trips, shortening them and driving less because of the cost.

The economic slowdown also plays a part, Pisarski said. Fewer people with jobs means fewer people driving to work and less economic activity, which results in less vehicle travel, particularly among trucks, because fewer goods are purchased and shipped. Recreational travel also takes a hit, as fewer people drive to the movies, malls and for vacations.