[Chris25]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm

Oil is creeping up. No hurricane Katrina this time, no oil plant explosions nothing else to blame.

Is this the start of it?

[Shea]

I ran across a report from Bloomberg's news organization today (5/18) which noted that refined gasoline supplies within the US are running 7.5% below last year. When the 1973 oil crisis hit we lost only 7-8% of our crude oil supply. This fact would seem to confirm Matthew Simmons' recent article in which he predicted that this summer could see the first real shortages to hit the US. Gas supplies seem to be tightest in the eastern part of the US. What could the trigger be? More hurricanes hitting the wrong place at the wrong time, continuing unexpected refinery shutdowns, etc. I don't think it's likely that we'll definitely encounter an oil crisis this summer, but I think that possibility has definitely increased. In my examination of Hubbert Peak events in various countries I noted that after effects usually hit between 3 - 6 years after the peak is reached. In the case of the former Soviet Union, though, it imploded just two years after peak. If Matthew Simmons is right in predicting that world peak was reached in 2005, then next year is probably the year in which we can expect after effects to become interesting.

[dohboi]

Nice analysis of national peaks and timing of aftereffects, but don't you think WORLD peak might unwind a bit differently.

I haven't done a careful study, but I imagine that in most of the national peaks, increased imports helped mask the worst effects until really big imballances overwhelmed stop-gap measures.

There will be/is no place to import oil from in a world peak. It seems to me that this difference could shorten your lag by a year (at least).

Time will tell.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chris25', '[')url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm[/url]

Oil is creeping up. No hurricane Katrina this time, no oil plant explosions nothing else to blame.

Is this the start of it?

[Dan1195]

We have already seen the first signs. A rather steady upward march in crude/gasoline prices not caused be a major supply loss (i.e. embargo) that does not result in additional crude oil supply. Of course in reality the refinery bottleneck obscures the crude issue for now.

The second stage, which has not happened (yet) can manifest itself in two ways. Declining crude quality and the refinery bottleneck cause gas shortages. Actually more of a bottleneck/ EROEI issue.

Finally declining crude supplies themselves start a massive run of oil prices, and US and other places tapping their SPR's to meet crude demand. IMHO the economy will certainly crash at this point or soon after this point if not already.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chris25', '[')url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm[/url]

Oil is creeping up. No hurricane Katrina this time, no oil plant explosions nothing else to blame.

Is this the start of it?

[kochevnik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')The first signs of Peak Oil were the 911 attacks. People must be incredibly dense to be unable to see such an obvious thing.

[Rogozhin]

From centuries to years isn't a decent analogy.

Rogo

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')The first signs of Peak Oil were the 911 attacks. People must be incredibly dense to be unable to see such an obvious thing.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', ' ')Well you forgot about 1914 but thats OK, only the second largest military conflict humanity has known. Which incidentally can be considered the first real resource war. And what fighting the sentiments of a socially affected nutjob like Hitler have to do with the origins of Peak Oil you'll have to expand on. I'm pretty sure Hitler's principal concern was the development of the prominence of the German race as master over all. Not for black gold. The Third Reich (as I was reminded recently) did pretty well on supporting itself with oil from coal. Plus it started in 1939 as well.

And you can tell WWII was nothing to do with resources. If my memory serves, the Yanks wanted nothing to do with it. Until 1941 that is.

[xarkz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')I'm pretty sure Hitler's principal concern was the development of the prominence of the German race as master over all. Not for black gold. The Third Reich (as I was reminded recently) did pretty well on supporting itself with oil from coal. Plus it started in 1939 as well.

And you can tell WWII was nothing to do with resources. If my memory serves, the Yanks wanted nothing to do with it. Until 1941 that is.

[NEOPO]

But wait, there is so much more
Bush and the Nazi Connection Yes Nazi

[Carlhole]

Iraq War Is All About Controlling The Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CommonDreams.org', 'A')FTER WORLD WAR II, the president’s national security council propounded a policy that would shape the world’s geopolitical future: “Oil operations are, for all practical purposes, instruments of our foreign policy.”

More than a half-century later, that policy has not changed.

With the invasion of Iraq already secretly being planned, freshly selected President George W. Bush listed “energy security” as his first action priority.

Energy security is the invisible elephant in Washington, guiding Bush policy on Iraq, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. It explains the “surge,” the absence of an exit strategy from Iraq, the stubborn resistance of the Bush-Cheney team to efforts by the Congressional Democrats to impose a withdrawal deadline for 170,000 American soldiers, as well as the ongoing construction of permanent military bases in Iraq, and the costly stationing of thousands of American troops on foreign soil from Kuwait to Djibouti.

Energy security is the invisible presence shaping what the 2008 presidential candidates say or don’t say about oil and energy. Energy security is the reason Hillary Clinton refuses to embrace a withdrawal deadline and why Republican presidential hopeful John McCain declares that there is “no alternative Plan B” to the ongoing build-up of American forces.

In short, the American occupation and the maintenance of a shaky Iraqi government are the insurance policy for American control and access to the second largest untapped reserve of petroleum in the world. The politicians don’t say much about an energy-security policy based on foreign oil. The news media don’t report very much on it...

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his web site is the first sign of peak oil.

This is where loosers, misanthropes, paranoids, dreamers, permaculturalists, paranoids, outcastes, paranoids, loopies, lopers, loudmouths, paranoids, and the such come to share recipes, and such.

need to look no further

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')s that the conspiracy theory you were referring to?

[Newsseeker]

The signs are everywhere that we are past peak. Just wait a few years for the decline rate to speed up to 5% or so and then you'll see TSHTF and TEOTWAWKI. Guaranteed.

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')The first signs of Peak Oil were the 911 attacks. People must be incredibly dense to be unable to see such an obvious thing.

[Chris25]

What Im getting at is the fact that crude oil has risen without a major event happening affecting supply.

This is down to the simple fact that supplies are depleting.

Guess what guys, filled up the car this morning. 99p per litre (thats about £3.7 per gallon, that works out at $6 a gallon!)

Very very expensive.