[TonyPrep]

The more I read and listen to official deniers (like oil executives and optimistic analysts) the more the story on conventional oil seems to be that we're at or very near peak. It's sometimes referred to as the end of "easy oil" or "cheap oil". There appears to be almost universal concensus on that (though there are always exceptions).

Given this apparent fact, how likely is it, in the real world (where there are hurricanes, geopolitical situations, lack of personnel, and so on), that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production (because peak is always followed by decline, and accelerating decline) and supply additional demand?

It doesn't seem likely, to me and, if it's not likely, then effective peak is now, not in 2010 or later.

Tony

[whereagles]

I would venture to say that while the development of non-conventional sources can mitigate decline of conventional oil, the time needed to put non-conventional oil at rates of flow that actually make a difference might not be short enough.

In other words, we COULD have, say, tar sands oil yielding 5 mbd, but while we gather the machinery to do that, decline in conventional oil might already be 8 mbd. So we would end up with a net loss of 3 mbd. Conclusion would be: peak light sweet = peak oil.

Of course, if we speed up extraction from non-conventional sources then it needn't be so.

[Taskforce_Unity]

I have just written an paper that includes unconventional oil sources (tar sands, polar oil, extra-heavy stuff from venezuela), it will become available on the website of ASPO -5 next week. Doing a poster presentation about it.

"that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production"

It probably can't do that, as soon as the easy stuff starts declining (and then im including deepwater and caspian sea oil), unconventional oil from bitumen, orimulsion or other sources can't keep that rate up. To my opinion, only quick development of biofuels to liquids and coal to liquids can keep sustaining increased liquids production after 2012 to my opinion, and that will be very hard to do. In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment

[Olle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') have just written an paper that includes unconventional oil sources (tar sands, polar oil, extra-heavy stuff from venezuela), it will become available on the website of ASPO -5 next week. Doing a poster presentation about it.

"that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production"

It probably can't do that, as soon as the easy stuff starts declining (and then im including deepwater and caspian sea oil), unconventional oil from bitumen, orimulsion or other sources can't keep that rate up. To my opinion, only quick development of biofuels to liquids and coal to liquids can keep sustaining increased liquids production after 2012 to my opinion, and that will be very hard to do. In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whereagles', ' ')In other words, we COULD have, say, tar sands oil yielding 5 mbd, but while we gather the machinery to do that, decline in conventional oil might already be 8 mbd. So we would end up with a net loss of 3 mbd. Conclusion would be: peak light sweet = peak oil.

[MonteQuest]

Here's a little update from the Rand Corporation on the Development Timeline for Oil Shale:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')urrently, no organization with the management, technical, and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced itsintent to build commercial-scale production facilities. A firm decision to commit funds to such a venture is at least six years away because that is the minimum length of time for scale-up and process confirmation work needed to obtain the technical and environmental data required for the design and permitting of a first-of-a-kind commercial operation. At least an additional six to eight years will be required to permit, design, construct, shake down, and confirm performance of that initial commercial operation. Consequently, at least 12 and possibly more years will elapse before oil shale development will reach the production growth phase. Under high growth assumptions, an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day is probably more than 20 years in the future, and 3 million barrels per day is probably more than 30 years into the future.

[DoomersUnite]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olle', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') have just written an paper that includes unconventional oil sources (tar sands, polar oil, extra-heavy stuff from venezuela), it will become available on the website of ASPO -5 next week. Doing a poster presentation about it.

"that unconventional production can replace the decline of conventional oil production"

It probably can't do that, as soon as the easy stuff starts declining (and then im including deepwater and caspian sea oil), unconventional oil from bitumen, orimulsion or other sources can't keep that rate up. To my opinion, only quick development of biofuels to liquids and coal to liquids can keep sustaining increased liquids production after 2012 to my opinion, and that will be very hard to do. In other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I')n other words, we need to save liquids, maybe develop an electrical infrastructure in some places based on renewables and for the rest go big on the alternative liquids investment

[Sleepybag]

According to the Dutch branche of the PeakOil network, the production peak of conventional oil is likely to be already behind us. Back in 2005 we hit the 74 million barrels mark twice, never to return since.

Peak Oil Newsletter May 2007 (Large PDF warning)

See also: Peak Oil Netherlands

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sleepybag', '[')img]http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/oilwatch11.png[/img]

According to the Dutch branche of the PeakOil network, the production peak of conventional oil is likely to be already behind us. Back in 2005 we hit the 74 million barrels mark twice, never to return since.

Peak Oil Newsletter May 2007 (Large PDF warning)

See also: Peak Oil Netherlands

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what good does this fact do us if we can't get DOOM out of it

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')OOM

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what good does this fact do us if we can't get DOOM out of it

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')OOM

[Nicholai]

An excerpt from a member in the Alberta Legislature on November 28th, 2007:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he government needs to realize that not only do they have to spend wisely, do they have to make investments wisely, but they need to realize that we have passed the peak for conventional oil and gas.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Sure wish you included a link to verify.

[Nicholai]

LINK

[catbox]

Link = Dead.

Maybe they said toooooo much?


cb

[Nicholai]

LINK 2

You will need to click on Wednesday, November 28th Afternoon ! View in html or PDF, your choice.

[timmatoil]

Reuters reports that Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach has announced an “incentive plan” to reverse the “sharp drop in drilling in Canada’s biggest energy-producing province.” (http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNew ... 6?rpc=401&) The fall in the price of oil couple with a sharp increase in revenue royalties has resulted in a situation whereby drilling might drop as much as 20% in 2009. The Small Explorers and Producers Association of Canada are willing to consult with Stelmach but cautions, “We’ve been in serious trouble in this province for a year and a half now, preceding the fourth-quarter collapse in commodity prices and equity markets.”

Via Stock Research Portal (http://www.stockresearchportal.com)

Alberta was producing a ton of oil prior to its price collapse. Do you think this incentive plan is a good thing or bad thing? And how would you expect it to affect companies with interest in the tar sands?