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THE Brent Crude Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Olle » Thu 17 May 2007, 18:16:51

Highest this year!
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commod ... rices.html

Who is gonna take the blame this time? The Saudies? Bush? Santa?
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby syrac818 » Thu 17 May 2007, 18:47:48

Not to dismiss this, or seem like the constant contrarian here in hapy fun land, but...

With global markets at record/near record levels, and the US economy remaining relatively strong, and past performace showing that the economy can continue to expand in the face of $65 - $70 - $75 barrel oil, is there really a reason to blame anyone?

The results of $70/oil seem to be little more than a cranky American public and grumblings about evil oil executives. The economy, however, hasn't taken any huge hit due to this.

Why should OPEC supply more? Why should we be surprised that we're in this price territoy?
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:05:19

Given the US economy is in hideous shape, this is by no means a good thing. When it comes to keeping the SPR stocked, the US will feel it. That the Dow is at record levels means squat when buying power of the dollar has plummetted.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Windmills » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:16:28

But are economies continuing to grow because high energy prices aren't yet having a significant effect, or are economies like the US's growing because we're playing a bunch of back room credit/debt/deficit/borrowing/hallucinated wealth/money printing games that can only be played for a limited amount of time before their house of cards falls down?
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', ' ')The results of $70/oil seem to be little more than a cranky American public and grumblings about evil oil executives.....


...and escalating debt as smashed budgets go on credit cards.

You are out of touch with the reality around you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he effect of higher gas prices, detected by the United States Department of Commerce, shows retail sales fell two-tenths of 1 percent in April. Higher gas prices are a major contributor.

Economists say consumers spent $30 more on gas last month. With fewer dollars in our pockets, Americans spent less - an estimated $20 billion less - at our favorite department stores.

"People are already choosing between food and rent and medicine," says Poag. "And so it's going to cut back on people going on vacations, people visiting, the cost of food is going to go up. It's a ripple effect for the whole economy."

Wal-Mart reported its sales fell 3.5 percent.

Overall, department store sales fell to their lowest levels since November 2002.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')oaring gas prices are slamming cities, school districts and sheriff's departments across the USA, forcing local governments to scrimp, save and borrow to pay the price at the pump.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby syrac818 » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:57:11

LOL - Jeez, no reason to be a beeyotch about it. I'm simply posing a question, which really isn't all that "out of touch" when looking at the current market levels. Cheer up :lol:
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby dukey » Thu 17 May 2007, 19:57:52

why such a spread in prices
between brent and the others ?

different crude grades ?
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:00:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'L')OL - Jeez, no reason to be a beeyotch about it.


Then do your homework before posting or expect your feet to be held to the fire.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:06:02

Dukey...i think cause there is a glut of oil sitting in texas...
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Olle » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:10:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'N')ot to dismiss this, or seem like the constant contrarian here in hapy fun land, but...

With global markets at record/near record levels, and the US economy remaining relatively strong, and past performace showing that the economy can continue to expand in the face of $65 - $70 - $75 barrel oil, is there really a reason to blame anyone?

The results of $70/oil seem to be little more than a cranky American public and grumblings about evil oil executives. The economy, however, hasn't taken any huge hit due to this.

Why should OPEC supply more? Why should we be surprised that we're in this price territoy?


I was just iroic. Do you remember the UK hostages oil price premium? When they were released prices went even further...

It i hard to grow suply, at leat outside OPEC. But you seldom see that as an explanation in media. Some of the explanations you see seems to have as good cred as Santa, hence my remark
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby syrac818 » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:12:17

LOL...oh please.. and seriously, cheer up. Like, with meds if you have to. The article was decent, an interesting look at the disconnect between the American Wall Street class and the American poor. You can let it go at that. :-D
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Olle » Thu 17 May 2007, 20:12:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'w')hy such a spread in prices
between brent and the others ?

different crude grades ?


Brent are bought by us Europeans and we have good (less bad than the US) refining capacity = More demand
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Ayame » Fri 18 May 2007, 04:06:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', 'o')r are economies like the US's growing because we're playing a bunch of back room credit/debt/deficit/borrowing/hallucinated wealth/money printing games that can only be played for a limited amount of time before their house of cards falls down?


yes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Westexas over at the oildrum', '
')Jim Puplava (financialsense.com) had some interesting numbers, in the third hour of his Internet program, on money supply growth, year over year, in various regions:

Russia, 42%
China, 18%
India, 17%
Brazil, 14%,
Australia, 14%
UK, 13%
EU 10% +
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Smudger » Fri 18 May 2007, 05:55:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', 'L')OL...oh please.. and seriously, cheer up. Like, with meds if you have to. The article was decent, an interesting look at the disconnect between the American Wall Street class and the American poor. You can let it go at that. :-D

agree
i do rather sense a feeling of "grrrr" in MQ's post. the reality is $70 a barrel will not tip us over and one could argue is a good thing. Even better will be a time when US pretrol prices get on a par with Europe at $7-8. that would reduce demand for petrol/oil i suspect. (and lower Co2 emissions...)
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Newsseeker » Fri 18 May 2007, 07:59:48

Up, up and away it goes. I expect it to break $80 this summer. Anyone else have predictions?
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 18 May 2007, 15:27:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', 't')he reality is $70 a barrel will not tip us over and one could argue is a good thing. Even better will be a time when US pretrol prices get on a par with Europe at $7-8. that would reduce demand for petrol/oil i suspect. (and lower Co2 emissions...)


What do you mean? $40/barrel tipped us over. That reality is slowing moving through the economy just like interest rates and all other manner of economic influences.

Demand for petrol will only decline under economic contraction and the flat inability for people to afford to buy what they demand.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Smudger » Tue 29 May 2007, 08:41:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', 't')he reality is $70 a barrel will not tip us over and one could argue is a good thing. Even better will be a time when US pretrol prices get on a par with Europe at $7-8. that would reduce demand for petrol/oil i suspect. (and lower Co2 emissions...)


What do you mean? $40/barrel tipped us over. That reality is slowing moving through the economy just like interest rates and all other manner of economic influences.

Demand for petrol will only decline under economic contraction and the flat inability for people to afford to buy what they demand.


MQ: Do tell me how you analysed it as the tipping point is $40. why not $41 or $56.7?!! my point was 1. trying to illustrate there is no really single tipping point (by which I mean the "we're all doomed" scenario some people subscribe to).

Secondly - Europe gets along just fine on $7-8 a gallon why can't the US? (the result seems to be that we use half the energy for a similar task than the US). or is what we are really talking about is "we need a solution to save the US from peak oil becuase otherwise the US way of life will have to change".....hmm... now there's a thing
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby What_Went_Wrong » Tue 29 May 2007, 10:30:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', '
')
Secondly - Europe gets along just fine on $7-8 a gallon why can't the US? (the result seems to be that we use half the energy for a similar task than the US). or is what we are really talking about is "we need a solution to save the US from peak oil becuase otherwise the US way of life will have to change".....hmm... now there's a thing


The US can't handle $8 gas prices because the majority drive further the we do in Europe.

The problem with the usa is that most of the major citys were built with the car in mind, and people live much further away from where they work then we do in Europe in most cases. So double the price of gas would mean most Americans would have much less to spend on leisure as much of there income will be spend on commuting, thus greatly affecting every aspect of the economy.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 29 May 2007, 11:42:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', ' ')MQ: Do tell me how you analysed it as the tipping point is $40. why not $41 or $56.7?!! my point was 1. trying to illustrate there is no really single tipping point (by which I mean the "we're all doomed" scenario some people subscribe to).


No, there is not. $40 dollar oil was not "the" tipping point, but a point high enough that it's effects will be and are profound upon our system. Escalating debt is hiding it for now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econdly - Europe gets along just fine on $7-8 a gallon why can't the US? (


If the US paid $7 to $8 a gallon and 70% of that went to develop alternative energies and provide for environmental impact, and we only had to drive short distances like they do in Europe, then we might get along just fine if the price rose slowly like it did there.
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Re: Brent over $70 again!

Unread postby Dukat_Reloaded » Tue 29 May 2007, 13:40:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Falls Almost $2 on Signs U.S. Gasoline Summer Supply to Be Sufficient


Bloomberg

Appears Gasoline supply will be sufficient for the US driving season. Probably have to wait until next year to see the spikes unless there is a debt contraction in the economey.
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