[SevenTen]

Stuart's work is nothing short of amazing, yet it is quite complicated. The thrust of the entire analysis is to show what is the status of KSA's Ghawar oil field, and show whether their recent production is indicative of depletion. Ghawar is responsible for over half of all KSA's oil production.

At the end, Stuart pulls together the various sources of data and analysis to suggest that Northern Ghawar, producing a total of about 3.9 mbpd, is about to leave or is currently leaving its production plateau and enter decline with 15% depletion rates or higher. Southern Ghawar, producing 1.7 mbpd, appears to be able to produce at that level for decades to come.

[Niagara]

Stuart's work in that post is remarkable.

It looks like there is consensus among the TOD heavyweights like Stuart, Fractional Flow, Westexes, Khebab etc. that Ghawar is peaked. You can pretty much take that to the bank. Ignore what claims Aramco makes, it's just noise. All that's left to determine now is the depletion rate.

Hang on, it's all downhill from here.

[snowhope]

Scary stuff. Confirmation for me (if it were needed) that the SHTF from this summer onwards.

I had hoped we might get a little longer, but I really think it is game over for our current prosperity.

Make your final preparations for the start of long downward slide.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('snowhope', 'M')ake your final preparations for the start of long downward slide.

[sameu]

I disagree
all these chunks of shit linging up to hit the fan, make me a bit nervous

It won't be fun

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'I') am posting this for those people who can figure out what the hell Stuart is saying. If you know then please translate it. And post here. Thanks!$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his analysis is a summary of my attempt to understand two pictures, which implicitly pose two questions.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'T')here used to be LOTS of oil! Then we used it to drive SUV's, Now there isn't near as much left. RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!!

[Geko45]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'N')ow if all this breathless speculation would just arrive in the form of rapidly diminishing crude inventories maybe my neighbors wouldn't think I was a fruitcake.

[DantesPeak]

kjmclark - thanks for your over view. I didn't read it, you saved me a lot of time, and I suspected that's what stuart was going to say. I don't have time to keep up with everything, my gut feeling is that the level of world chaos is accelerating and it's best not to be too worried if the Saudis produce 8.4 million bpd or 8.3 mbpd next month. There's no looking back now anyway.

There was one poster here who posted a Saudi oil production chart a little ways back on the Saudi thread, which shows a falloff in Ghawar production. If this is true, Simmons' twilight in the desert has already started, which is what he seems to be saying lately. The bad part about knowing that TSHTF is that some of that stuff is going to spray over me too, but at least I'll duck at the right time - hopefully.

[roccman]

Robert Rapier is one of the only heavy hitters at TOD who does not believe KSA has peaked ...he thinks new projects will offset declines. Also - the cornucopians at TOD are not posting as much since this intense reporting has been going on for the last two months.

Stuart links all his and others analysis in his recent post. All of them world class reads. I say prepare for $8 gas. Expect to make 1/2 what you make now. Expect this to occur in under two years.

[Armageddon]

Robert Rapier has an agenda. That's probably why he moved to a European country that is more self sufficient than the US. He is a shill for somebody, there is no doubt. He is too smart to not think SA and the world has peaked. I am a dumb fuck and even I know this.

[profgoose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'W')hile getting lost in minutia is probably wildly interesting to the technical types, I just need the summary baby, and the SUMMARY IS BAD!!! Now if all this breathless speculation would just arrive in the form of rapidly diminishing crude inventories maybe my neighbors wouldn't think I was a fruitcake.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he work at the oildrum should be published and marketed as aggressively as the crap that comes out of CERA, USGS, and the rest of the whoring, trash-driven, scumbag-laden, ass-sucking, circle-jerking, frathouse-boy establishments that are sending us all down the road to perdition.

[Eli]

I have been here for two years now and still a big part of me does not want to believe that Ghawar has peaked. I guarantee you Simmons has read Stuart's posts.
Notice too Cheney did not come out of KSA with an announcement of more oil for the US or even a big joint refinery in KSA. If there was a hope at all for more KSA production the US would have been crowing about it. What is not being said by KSA is just as important as what they are saying.

[Eli]

Here is the dumded down version of Stuart's post.

Daily KOS

Just look at this graph of KSA production and you get the picture.

[eastbay]

The work at the oildrum should be published and marketed as aggressively as the crap that comes out of CERA, USGS, and the rest of the whoring, trash-driven, scumbag-laden, a&&-sucking, circle-jerking, frathouse-boy establishments that are sending us all down the road to perdition.

Oh man.... that was really beautiful! Ya gotta love the sweet way this guy pstarr tells us how he genuinely feels. Somehow, I feel as though he maybe left something out... hey pstarr, do you have anything you'd like to add to this???

[kmann]

I am not buying in to the consensus that the peak has already hit. Some evidence is mounting. However, put it in a historical context - a case could have easily been made (and was) in 1982 that we were past peak. And we were, it was however just a local peak. I think another reason I'm not convinced is because I get my news from sources besides peakoil.com or TOD. I also read EIA, IEA, Alexander's, Platts, oil company web sites, and any news releases, etc. I then form my own opinions. My impression is that most on this site are to myopic. Look at the big picture. Acknowledge your own fallibility in understanding the available data. There are big gaps in what is accessible to the general public. The gaps have been inferred and are subject to substantial error. You need to question more. One popular saying around here is "If Ghawar has peaked, Saudi Arabia has peaked, if Saudi Arabia has peaked, the world has peaked." I say: 'taint necessarily so.
It might turn out that USGS and CERA are closer to reality than you all.