[What_Went_Wrong]

... and I'm getting scared. I have to go for work but I'm almost hoping the ever welcoming USA immigration officials turn me away.

So many people (many of whoms opinions I've respected and followed for a long time) now point towards a crisis starting this year. Also many accept that aviation is likely to be the first industry to suffer greatly.

Is there a chance then, you think, that I this might be a one way trip? Or am I just getting to hung up on the resent influx of doomer porn at peakoil.com and of course we will still be flying 6 months from now?

I do not wanna be in Tuscon Arizona, that close to phoenix, when the shit hits the fan. No frigging way! Something tells me that will be the first area in the USA to be hit hard by rising oil prices, I hear there is already water issues before you even take peak oil into account.

[gnm]

Tuscon is a furnace. But the good news is that July is the rainy season. You can always bug out from there to the Mount lemon area or the southern mountains of NM (silver city etc), or even south to the copper canyon area of Mexico if TSHTF.

I grew up scouting in the Sonoran desert. It is....... unforgiving.

-G

[What_Went_Wrong]

Lets face it, anyone in Tucson or Phoenix when the worst starts have little hope of surviving or making a change to any kinda of sustainable lifestyle.

So I just hoping come October my flight back will be there waiting for me, not grounded due to shortages. And to think 2 years ago i'd have done anything to live in Tucson full time.

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '
')Is there a chance then, you think, that I this might be a one way trip? Or am I just getting to hung up on the resent influx of doomer porn at peakoil.com and of course we will still be flying 6 months from now?

[What_Went_Wrong]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '
')Is there a chance then, you think, that I this might be a one way trip? Or am I just getting to hung up on the resent influx of doomer porn at peakoil.com and of course we will still be flying 6 months from now?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', ' ')do you think it's insane to imagine that a fuel shortage this year could ground all planes?

[syrac818]

I guess it's ultimately up to you.

I highly suggest doing a forum search on this site, and that'll make it fairly obvious that this place has always had a slant towards a massive collapse coming very soon. The place gets boring without it. Ever notice how Savinar shows up with some extremely dramatic, scary news whenever oil is hovering around $60 and no massive disruption are taking place?

I mean, let's be honest here. The current setting isn't shit compared to about a year and half ago when OPEC was pumping flat out, hurricanes were destroying American cities, oil was around $75-$80 with no sign of slowing, and Israel-Hezbollah-Iran was just starting to heat up. Oh, and we had Bush in full force with no unchecked power. Now that was dreary. Seriously, there was little doubt in here that it was the end.

[What_Went_Wrong]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'L')ots of people imagine things. If you are functioning successfully in society then you probably don't need to worry about your imaginings being signs of insanity.

[one_more_day]

"I highly suggest doing a forum search on this site, and that'll make it fairly obvious that this place has always had a slant towards a massive collapse coming very soon." - syrac818


Umm...attacking the site's credibility as a whole doesn't really answer the OP's question regarding air travel.

As far as THIS summer is concerned, I wouldn't be too worried. Your flight is between two wealthy nations, and their air travel will not be the first to go. Third world countries will lose their airlines long before the US or UK.

What I expect to see is fares doubling or tripling in the near future. This will end air travel for the paycheck-to-paycheck class, but it will take several more years to collapse commercial air travel. I am sure that the privately wealthy will still find a way to fuel their personal jets.

That said, I am going to see all my family this year. If I wait till next year, I may not be able to afford it. Or, that quantity of fuel may not be reliably available for car travel.

Even if we are not yet to the point of massive collapse, this is going to be a very interesting year. Good luck, and I hope you get back to the UK safely.

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('one_more_day', '"')I highly suggest doing a forum search on this site, and that'll make it fairly obvious that this place has always had a slant towards a massive collapse coming very soon." - syrac818


Umm...attacking the site's credibility as a whole doesn't really answer the OP's question regarding air travel.

[keehah]

syrac818 go home man. Just checked your history of posts I don't think you can handle this site, you need a break. Of course though you are just here to catapult over the top doomer propaganda for denialists, still with a break you could do a better, more nuanced job!

I'm looking at a new job too that will take me to the same area for field work. And I have concerns (other than being away from the cooling North Pacific Air in summer).

First is that I will have to start flying again. I was looking forward to giving it up (I told my current employer I don't want to fly anymore-I want to start living a life more in balance with the earth and not flying is much easier to do (and has more benefit) than say giving up my car.

Second is starting a new 'fully in the system' job makes it harder to deny to myself I am ready to turn my back on this destructive form of civilization.

Third (related to the second) is the fact that I am more reliant on the system and further from my main preps. Coming from the UK you probably have as much risk of being victim of any conventional false flag event as in America. I agree with what others have posted, a few days delay and more $$ but you will get home when needed. My concern is a bio-event or one causing similar and being far from my main preps. Risk of this may be smaller than other probable disruptions, but consequences very great so harder to accept.

Being truthful-the biggest issue is probably 2, spending time outside my barganing 'comfort zone.'

[syrac818]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', 's')yrac818 go home man. Just checked your history of posts I don't think you can handle this site, you need a break. Of course though you are just here to catapult over the top doomer propaganda for denialists, still with a break you could do a better, more nuanced job!

[Madpaddy]

My crystal ball suggests a high likelyhood of a rerun of the Israel lebanon war this summer and US intervention of some description in Iran. This along with a storm hit on the Gulf of Mexico will pus oil to $100. However, that still won't ground the airlines but it will push up ticket prices I can't see any scenario where air travel is seriously reduced before 2011. It is more likely that the EU will restrict air travel for environmental reasons.

[lotrfan55345]

You'll be fine. The absolute worst situation imaginable for me by October is that you'll have to drive/take a train to LA to get a flight to England. Trans-Atlantic/Trans-Pacific flights will be the last to go.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('syrac818', '
')
you might as well go full steam ahead, and start setting up a safety haven in the woods.

[What_Went_Wrong]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', 'Y')ou'll be fine. The absolute worst situation imaginable for me by October is that you'll have to drive/take a train to LA to get a flight to England. Trans-Atlantic/Trans-Pacific flights will be the last to go.

[thuja]

Have to agree there syrac- the doomer circle jerk is at full force right now- is it the 3 $ gasoline? Just wait till it hits 5 $- these folks will be frothing at the mouth...

Doom takes time my friends...have patience. You will be vindicated hard crashers- but it may take a few decades...

[AZpeaker]

Okay Folks, Let's get something straight. Arizona is not the wild west anymore!

1. Phoenix's Airport is 4th busiest in the nation according to http://www.myafd.com/top10/Busiest_Airports.asp

2. Arizona, although hot as heck during June, July, August, has redundant water supply in aquifers, Central Arizona Project canal and Lakes.

3. Proximity to Mexico makes it more likely that we will continue to have a stream of produce from Mexico that won't make it to colorado, Utah, Nevada etc. etc. If fuel prices get really high.

4. And, although hot in the summer, many vegies can be grown year 'round becuase of the moderate climate the other nine months of the year. (No Heating oil worries either)

So, as for being the worst place to be when TSHTF I have to disagree.

July and August are the monsoon season. Refreshing afternoon rains in exciting bursts of thunderstorms. But not significant precipitation we receive most of our rainfall between January and March. But, just like the Pacific Northwest, we have had drought conditions for over a decade now.

So, pack your bags put on some sun screen (spf 50 if you have lived in the UK all your life). You are not travelling to the edge of the earth. It will just feel that way the first time the "dry heat" hits you in the face when you get out of the airport.

Good Luck!

[What_Went_Wrong]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AZpeaker', '
')So, pack your bags put on some sun screen (spf 50 if you have lived in the UK all your life). You are not travelling to the edge of the earth. It will just feel that way the first time the "dry heat" hits you in the face when you get out of the airport.

Good Luck!

[lotrfan55345]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', 'Y')ou'll be fine. The absolute worst situation imaginable for me by October is that you'll have to drive/take a train to LA to get a flight to England. Trans-Atlantic/Trans-Pacific flights will be the last to go.