[baller1000]

Just wondering..how would electricity demand in America be affected by Peak Oil? And how would Power Companies be affected in terms of profits?

[Armageddon]

I think most power plants are coal and natural gas based. PO will not effect those too much in the short term. Here is what will happen. Peak oil will cause gasoline prices to sky rocket, which will cause everything imaginable to rise, causing a massive financial meltdown. This is right around the corner. Within 12 months. This entire friggen system is about to blow.

[Pablo2079]

If electric cars made it into the mainstream (as if we had that much time), wouldn't that push the grid to the breaking point?

[What_Went_Wrong]

I now believe that it will be pretty sudden, the stock markets will crash and the lights around the world will start to go out, followed by chaos for an unknown period of time. Guess that makes me the worst kinda doomer

[joewp]

Everybody seems to forget that the electric grid depends on oil for its servicing. Those power lines cover vast distances through some lonely areas and gasoline or diesel is needed to allow the linemen to do their job. This guy is sitting in a rig attached to a hovering helicopter above and behind him.


That's a pretty impressive use of fossil fuels and it just helps to point out that our entire energy complex is based on oil for transportation.
Similarly, this diesel coal train illustrates that power generation is dependent on oil too.


Let's not forget mining coal and drilling for natural gas, both of which require oil-based fuels. And so far, they haven't developed a method of transporting the workers from home to work, a la Star Trek, so I'm betting they all drive to work, too.

Everything we do is just soaked in oil. That's just one of the reasons I'm a doomer.

Last one out needn't turn out the lights. They'll go out by themselves.

[SILENTTODD]

I have always maintained it will not be the primary sources or generators that collapse first in the Electrical/ Telco. It will be the infrastructure. The wires, the cables, the repeaters.

Unless there is the legion of field technicians that with their gas guzzling trucks available; most of the infrastructure will disappear within a year.

Water may last longer, I know nothing about it. But I do know the water purification systems rely on electricity. So take your choice which is most vulnerable.

[MrMambo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'I') have always maintained it will not be the primary sources or generators that collapse first in the Electrical/ Telco. It will be the infrastructure. The wires, the cables, the repeaters.

Unless there is the legion of field technicians that with their gas guzzling trucks available; most of the infrastructure will disappear within a year.

Water may last longer, I know nothing about it. But I do know the water purification systems rely on electricity. So take your choice which is most vulnerable.

[Smudger]

agree it won't be a massive lights out event.
Everything will cost more and peoples disposable income will drop through the floor rather like Britain and Europe during the 50's (something to do with US loans?.....) so don't be investing in leisure companies/hotels etc! it will be a very long recession and will cause a lot of unemployment/loss of income. Not pleasant and not nearly as "exciting" as an uber doom scenario that I know we all love to see on the screens (but probably not in reality).

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'I') now believe that it will be pretty sudden, the stock markets will crash and the lights around the world will start to go out, followed by chaos for an unknown period of time. Guess that makes me the worst kinda doomer

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think most power plants are coal and natural gas based. PO will not effect those too much in the short term. Here is what will happen. Peak oil will cause gasoline prices to sky rocket, which will cause everything imaginable to rise, causing a massive financial meltdown. This is right around the corner. Within 12 months. This entire friggen system is about to blow.

[Kingcoal]

Nukes can go a year without refueling. Coal plants in comparison need an hourly flow of coal cars.

Electric cars would probably be recharged at night when there is currently almost no load, so that would actually not affect the grid too much.[web]http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/figes1.html[/web]

[lawnchair]

There is not "almost no load" at night. Here's today at Cal ISO.

http://www.caiso.com/outlook/outlook.html

Which is deceptive for being a non-zero based graph. Lowest late-night demand is around 2/3 of peak. As has been discussed on the other recent electric thread, many components of the distribution grid are pushed to 400% or more of rating. Cooldown cycles are absolutely critical to this being possible. The last few megawatts are the most expensive (nat. gas turbines) to fuel, so if we ran them all night, we're only more screwed in the methane market. Finally, repairs have to happen, and they often happen at night for this reason.

Besides, do you really expect people to drive their 100-mile-range electric car 35 miles to work and cross their fingers that they make it home? Hardly. They will demand plugs at work so they can move to a "good" neighborhood 50 miles away.

The question to me is the long-term nature of the "grid". At moderate depletion, there will still be coal, U235, hydro, etc for many years. But, as the oil depression continues, will already miserable grid maintenance get worse? I think the integrated grid may break apart into smaller fiefdoms. If you have adequate power in your region, but your neighboring regions have sagging lines, suddenly offline plants and even sync problems, you have to cut the ties.

Blackouts, though, will silence nuclear NIMBY cold.

[SevenTen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'I') don't know how you back up your claims. When peak oil hits.. it wont be like 90% is gone in a year, it will be more like 1-3%.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SevenTen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrMambo', 'I') don't know how you back up your claims. When peak oil hits.. it wont be like 90% is gone in a year, it will be more like 1-3%.

[Andy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LawnChair', 'B')lackouts, though, will silence nuclear NIMBY cold.

[shortonoil]

MrMambo wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know how you back up your claims. When peak oil hits.. it wont be like 90% is gone in a year, it will be more like 1-3%.

[Twilight]

Let me put it this way, I needed a small discontinued electronic part, and it travelled from Mexico via the US to Europe on three jets and several trucks before it was delivered.

Once oil depletion starts bankrupting the international freight services, what will be the alternative? Asking for special treatment because you think you matter? Waiting a month for sea freight? Building your own factory to make alternatives for everything you used in the last 50 years?

Right now I can pay more, but in future I think we will view the easy option as a luxury.

What will happen long term is everyone will have to improvise, and you can see how well that works in any country under an embargo.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me put it this way, I needed a small discontinued electronic part, and it travelled from Mexico via the US to Europe on three jets and several trucks before it was delivered.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'W')hat happens? You wait a year for it to arrive, and the next time you order two. In all likely hood, since you waited a year for it to begin with, you find out that you really didn’t need it in the first place. You just wanted it. JIT inventory methods get moved to the junk yard, where they belonged in the first place.

[DYBoulet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') think most power plants are coal and natural gas based. PO will not effect those too much in the short term. Here is what will happen. Peak oil will cause gasoline prices to sky rocket, which will cause everything imaginable to rise, causing a massive financial meltdown. This is right around the corner. Within 12 months. This entire friggen system is about to blow.