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US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

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US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

Unread postby lawnchair » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:06:36

from the AP

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline stocks rose an average of 400,000 barrels last week, the first increase in 13 weeks. But a closer inspection showed much of that increase was due to a 1.1-million barrel increase in inventories on the West Coast only, not across the country.


That would explain why central US gas prices are skyrocketing compared to the nation (up 45 cents/gal in three weeks in KS) and why wholesale (NY harbor) contracts weren't assuaged by last weeks' supply build.

(edit: I see Dante already mentioned this yesterday)
Does this imply that the increased imports of refined gasoline are largely coming from Asian refineries?

How isolated is the West Coast market, anyway? Not that I expect California to be exporting any gasoline unless by fiat. It's not like their tanks are full, and if people there are willing to pay $3.75+, why would you bother shipping it?
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Re: US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 12 May 2007, 23:38:01

There was an unusual increase in West coast crude imports the last week, which may have help increase refinery output on the West coast. California has been pushing refiners to defer maintenance and produce at maximum output.

Meanwhile in the rest of the country, demand exceeds supply. This is particulary worrying because demand actually fell the last few weeks. What will the Memorial Day holiday bring?


Simmons made a very good presentation on the West Coast markets, which we talked about here - Matt Simmons on UCTV channel right now thread

Not sure if it will be shown again or is on Youtube, maybe someone can provide a link.

Anyway Simmons says because of the West's relaince on falling output from Alaska, and it's relative geographical isolation, it's heading for trouble.

Some possible good news is that the Saudis are planning on building storage in Japan, which may become available to the West if needed. This appears to be a few years away.
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Re: US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 13 May 2007, 09:19:57

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')alifornia has been pushing refiners to defer maintenance and produce at maximum output.


That is what happened after Rita & Katrina, and US refineries still aren’t running at anywhere near capacity.

When you start eating your seed corn, you know you are in trouble!
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Re: US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 13 May 2007, 09:28:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')alifornia has been pushing refiners to defer maintenance and produce at maximum output.


That is what happened after Rita & Katrina, and US refineries still aren’t running at anywhere near capacity.

When you start eating your seed corn, you know you are in trouble!

My crystal ball shows explosions and fires at refineries in the future!
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Re: US Gasoline distribution imbalances?

Unread postby pea-jay » Mon 14 May 2007, 03:11:15

We really are isolated out here. And here in CA we already import gas to meet our regular demands so its not like we have much to export. Still it is doable via ship. There was talk of that after Katrina, sending West Coast gas over to the Gulf. Dont know if they did, but you can bet if the price/supply imbalance got too extreme you can bet they would. After Katrina our gas spiked the least compared to the other regions.

Still, our refineries are vulnerable to all of the usual run of the mill problems and misshaps plus the occasional power grid emergency (the 2005 outages knocked out five refineries in LA for the better part of a day). And oh yeah, they would almost certainly go offline after a major quake. This wasnt a big problem in 1989 and 1994 when demand wasnt so close to production. It would be huge problem today.
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