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Oil Alternatives Aren't

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.
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Re: Aaron: Is history on your side?

Postby Aaron » Sun 13 May 2007, 13:03:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Previous transitions (wood/coal/oil) reflected the higher quality energy source, replacing lower quality sources. In other words, coal was more profitable than wood...

We didn't switch because of shortages... we switched because of profits.


As Tanada pointed out, apparently even when a new denser fuel had been found, there had been cases when it didn't replace the old fuel until shortages had driven its prices up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Today we face a forced switch to lower quality sources because of depletion.

Never happened before.


And what was your proof that the new sources are lower quality? Let's see... you were using the fact that oil prices are rising to 'prove' this. Now you're just flat out stating this as fact. If you knew this for a fact, why bother making up a proof for it? On the other hand, if you *didn't* know this as fact, we've just showed that you can't use the rise of oil prices to prove anything.


Ok fine,

Oil Alternatives kick ass & it's hover-cars & Mr Fusion for everybody.

I humbly withdraw my arguments & concede that oil's price has nothing to do with anything & everything is gonna be just SUPER!

Whew... I feel much better...

Thanks for setting me strait.

I'll begin the process of deleting all these silly posts right away.

Thank God for you.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby Tanada » Sun 13 May 2007, 13:17:56

:P

I certainly never claimed hover cars or Mr. Fusion are right around the corner LOL! Personally I think most of the next decade is going to suck and I only give myself a 50:50 chance of seeing what May 2017 looks like.

On the other hand I think it is useful to know the history of how we got here when speculating on where we are going. But that is just the historian in me doing a mental escape to times past in a lot of Doomers opinions about me I suppose.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby JRP3 » Sun 13 May 2007, 13:52:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Considering you can make oil from methane, and methane can be made from garbage, seems to me we can make solar panels from trash. Thats even better!


And just what, pray tell, do you make the trash with?

The solar panels?


Don't know how this will pan out but here they claim manufacturing solar devices from renewables:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps most remarkably, G24i's factory will be the first facility ever to produce solar cells while relying exclusively on renewable energy, including solar, wind, geothermal and other green sources.


http://www.g24i.com/manufacturing.html

Credit here for the info:
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby PraiseDoom » Sun 13 May 2007, 17:29:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Considering you can make oil from methane, and methane can be made from garbage, seems to me we can make solar panels from trash. Thats even better!


And just what, pray tell, do you make the trash with?

The solar panels?


Dead cows? Unburied zombies? The trash dumps they are turning into methane production facilities seem to include a little bit'o everything.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 18:12:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Considering you can make oil from methane, and methane can be made from garbage, seems to me we can make solar panels from trash. Thats even better!


And just what, pray tell, do you make the trash with?

The solar panels?


Dead cows? Unburied zombies? The trash dumps they are turning into methane production facilities seem to include a little bit'o everything.


Not the point. What energy source do you make the trash with?
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby PraiseDoom » Sun 13 May 2007, 20:51:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Not the point. What energy source do you make the trash with?


I suppose all the same ones we usually use.

I'm not suggesting this as a solution to anything of course, I just find it amusing that a landfill can make methane, which can be used for nearly anything.
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Re: Aaron: Is history on your side?

Postby Joe0Bloggs » Sun 13 May 2007, 21:05:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Ok fine,

Oil Alternatives kick ass & it's hover-cars & Mr Fusion for everybody.

I humbly withdraw my arguments & concede that oil's price has nothing to do with anything & everything is gonna be just SUPER!

Whew... I feel much better...

Thanks for setting me strait.

I'll begin the process of deleting all these silly posts right away.

Thank God for you.


Oil alternatives may not be so SUPER, it's just that oil prices don't mean much one way or the other.

Heck, if prices meant everything, look out for corn ethanol to become the next biggest future fuel, as supply outstrips demand and it becomes cheaper than petrol! Does that mean it has higher EROEI than oil all of a sudden?
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby Joe0Bloggs » Sun 13 May 2007, 21:11:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Not the point. What energy source do you make the trash with?


Generating energy from trash increases efficiency, which lowers energy requirements whichever energy source you're using.

Last I saw, oil production isn't going down a cliff, so I don't see why people seem to be hung on the idea that any oil alternative that can't scale to 100% replace oil next year is useless.

I used to be a firm believer in Doom myself, but the more time goes on, the less the evidence seems to justify my belief.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby Aaron » Sun 13 May 2007, 21:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Oil alternatives may not be so SUPER, it's just that oil prices don't mean much one way or the other. "


Well ok then..
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby Joe0Bloggs » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:32:23

Wohoo! I'm featured in Member Quotes! To whom do I owe this honor? :lol:
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby PraiseDoom » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:32:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', '
')
I used to be a firm believer in Doom myself, but the more time goes on, the less the evidence seems to justify my belief.


Count me among the "still hoping for it" crowd. But I'm starting to get a little cheesed myself. Jay Hanson got me all fired up a few years back, and by the time Katrina showed up man I was ready!

And now 2 years after Peak and I haven't even seen a decent shortage yet.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:38:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Not the point. What energy source do you make the trash with?


Generating energy from trash increases efficiency, which lowers energy requirements whichever energy source you're using.


Which lowers the price of the energy you save, which increases consumption.

Jevons' Paradox.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast I saw, oil production isn't going down a cliff, so I don't see why people seem to be hung on the idea that any oil alternative that can't scale to 100% replace oil next year is useless.


I don't think you can find me making that statement.

Rather a strawman argument.

If peak oil is here, we needed to be scaling those alternatives 10 to 20 years ago.

We didn't.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Not the point. What energy source do you make the trash with?


I suppose all the same ones we usually use.


Exactly.

Fossil fuels.

You can hardly use the waste generated by fossil fuels as a "new" source of energy.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:48:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')And now 2 years after Peak and I haven't even seen a decent shortage yet.


Some have just flat gone without so you can say that, you know?
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 22:51:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', 'W')ohoo! I'm featured in Member Quotes! To whom do I owe this honor? :lol:


Honor?

You mean embarrassment, don't you? :roll:
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby matt21811 » Sun 13 May 2007, 23:19:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')Well cars replaced horses right? So buggy whip manufacturers (of which there would have been a minute amount compared to all the easy trucking jobs that exist now btw) probably went on to make windscreen wipers or whatever. Nothing is going to replace cars. We are talking millions of jobs in the USA alone dependent upon drivers clogging the streets.

I dislike people comparing something from 100 years ago when we only had 1 billion people world wide, and even less as a percentage living the decadent lifestyle we do now. There are no real jobs for these people to go to, and if you know of them, maybe you could lay down what all these millions of people will do when the mechanics, MacDonalds employees, gas attendants, etc, have nothing to do.

The _FACT_ is we have lived a life with so many unnecessary parts to it for so long that the population now relies upon those unnecessary things to survive. Overpopulation.


Its a shame you dont like old examples, the earliest example I could find was in the 1600's.

There are loads of examples this century of technology making a jobs obsolete. The word processor replaced the electric typewriter and gone were the typing pools. Containerisation on the water front actually saved energy and made 5 in six dock workers unemployed. Take a look at any port city and see how big the docks district is. Every port city had tens of thousands of dock workers. They are all doing something else now. Efficiency creates jobs. I know that it is hard to accept because it sounds counter intuitive. Its the same line of thinking that says that communism should work. In theory it should. In reality, the opposite happens.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'H')ere's the evidence you asked for... of course it's from a "wacky peak oil nut-job named Greenspan, or something like that.

This concept you have developed where energy markets have little impact on the general economy is embarrassing,

Be reasonable.


If you read the article you will notice that the only direct contirbution from Greenspan is that he said there is a 1 in 3 chance of a recesion. Further down in the article it attributes the slow down to higher interest rates and a housing bubble. I suspect Greenspan would not use the expresion "double whammy". I think that is the reporter analysis.

I have said I'll change my mind when you show me some evidence. I think that is reasonable. Oil prices trippled, according to the doomers, we should be looting the stores by now but I'm only asking to see a significant jump in inflation (something more than cyclical swings).
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby Joe0Bloggs » Sun 13 May 2007, 23:21:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', 'W')ohoo! I'm featured in Member Quotes! To whom do I owe this honor? :lol:


Honor?

You mean embarrassment, don't you? :roll:


Sure, if you insist on taking the quote out of context...

It makes perfect sense that that rising oil price does not in itself mean that there are no alternatives to oil. After all, wood prices rose before coal replaced it, so I suppose that means that coal is an inferior fuel?

And corn ethanol prices are set to plunge, does that mean that corn ethanol is a superior fuel to oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If peak oil is here, we needed to be scaling those alternatives 10 to 20 years ago.

We didn't.


I doubt you'd see that Britain had scaled up its coal usage 10 to 20 years before Peak Wood...

The market never sees that far ahead and a transition like this is always going to be rough. Whether it means the End of Civilization, that's the question...

And why did we need to scale up those alternatives 10 to 20 years ago? Because it takes 10 to 20 years for those alternatives to scale up, and how much time do we have left now? What? One year? Thanks for proving me right.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Which lowers the price of the energy you save, which increases consumption.

Jevons' Paradox.


It would lower the price of the energy you save only if the rate of energy savings outstrips both the rate of decline in energy extraction and the rate of increase in demand.

In which case you are talking about an economy that is not only not going to collapse, but is actually going to continue to expand.

Whether that is a good thing is beside the point.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 23:38:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', ' ')I doubt you'd see that Britain had scaled up its coal usage 10 to 20 years before Peak Wood...


Another embarassing quote....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t would lower the price of the energy you save only if the rate of energy savings outstrips both the rate of decline in energy extraction and the rate of increase in demand.

In which case you are talking about an economy that is not only not going to collapse, but is actually going to continue to expand.



Oh, I don't think you are going to make the argument that conservation and efficiency can both offset oil decline and provide for economic growth, are you?

Because, if it can, it will increase consumption. and if it cannot, it isn't a solution.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 13 May 2007, 23:42:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Joe0Bloggs', 'I')t makes perfect sense that that rising oil price does not in itself mean that there are no alternatives to oil. After all, wood prices rose before coal replaced it, so I suppose that means that coal is an inferior fuel?


Another embarassing quote.
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Re: Oil Alternatives Aren't

Postby matt21811 » Sun 13 May 2007, 23:48:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Huh?

Have you not read the recent reports on coal's coming peak?


I have seen you post that if coal replaced everything it peaks in 37 years. I'm suggesting that alternatives take a more prominent role so the number is even bigger. Posibly into the next century.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Or that coal is a non-renewable fossil fuel as well?


Whats the relevance?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Or the 40% energy loss in the conversion?


Cars waste 70% in the conversion of oil to motion. I guess cars will never be posible then. Its a meaningless figure with no context here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Or the lack of coal transport infrastructure?


Did you just put this in here to make it look like you have a long list of points? My countries rail network is salivating at the prospect of increased coal freight. What are you talking about?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Not to mention the scalability of building CTL plants?

Scale? China had to write a law banning further investment in CTL because they are worried they will have too much production.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')And the accompanying pipeline system to distribute the liquid?

Oh.. you have me here. There is no way we will ever be able to distribute a liquid fuel around the world. I mean we are talking about a billion liquid fuel vehicles spread all around the world. It'll never happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Or the CO2 sequestering problem?

When a peak oil doomer is losing an economic arguement, they ALWAYS fall back to an environmental one. I have never seen any indication that we will do anything other than burn every bit of carbon into the atmosphere. CTL doesnt change that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')This will be as cheap and easy as sticking a straw into a pressurized oil field?

Of course, your car runs on crude oil. Mine runs on a highly refined and treated product. Cost is the primary consideration.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')What you smokin', bud?

I don't smoke.
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