[Jack]

Are all your friends and neighbors smirking at you as they drive by in their Hummer-Alphas? Does the wife sneer at your MRE stash? And do the kids whine about diverting their college money to more ammunition?

Well, then, perhaps we have a first glimpse of the coming Mad Max crash! (Or, maybe not. But don't be a spoil-sport)

Sales by retail stores had one of their worst months ever in April. Though analysts had expected April retail sales to be be "disappointing," they were even worse than expected. The UBS-International Council of Shopping Centers sales tally of 53 stores posted its biggest ever recorded decline. The -2.4% decline was the worst since these statistics started being recorded in 1970. Almost all stores posted declines in same store sales.

Wal-Mart reported a -3.5% decline, it's worst month ever recorded. The list of losers was extensive.

Target posted a -6.1% decline in same-store sales.

Federated, which controls both Macy's and Bloomingdale's, reported a -2.2 decline in same-store sales.

Penney's same-store sales declined -4.7%, far more than the -0.8% decline predicted.

Gap's same-store sales declined a whopping -16%, over twice as much as the predicted -7.1% predicted.

Limited Brands same-store sales declined -1%, in contrast to the +1% gain predicted.

Abercrombie & Fitch's same-store sales declined a whopping -15%, more than 3 times the -4.7% predicted.

LINK

In all fairness, Costco was up. Perhaps because I shop there.


And as retail goes, so goes America....

[kochevnik]

On another board someone brought up the point that now is the time everyone gets their tax refund checks too - business should be booming.

You can just feel this immense goliath of an economy making a very wide slow U-turn - like a supertanker takes miles to come to a stop the economy has been grinding along thru sheer momentum since the housing bubble popped last year.

At work yesterday (PCB manufacturer) they were talking about how few orders they have lined up for next quarter.

Do you feel it ?

[NEOPO]

ooooh, aaaah

Naw man, they want bodies hitting the floor, old people getting beat up and robbed, cities up in flames, middle eastern countries being turned into glass, riots in all the streets, double digit depletion and inflation rates, 50% unemployment, the only store is walmart, the only food is fish from china, the only cars are from korea and the amish, we are all microchipped, the amero, a mass die off and the next 911!
Yeah
<grabs jujube's and twizzlers>

[Eli]

This is going to be awful.

Last year when we had record oil prices the housing market was steaming right along.

Now it is in the dumpster, all the people on wall street like to say it has hit bottom and is going to come back up now. They do not know what bottom is.

When we hit nation wide gas of over 4 bucks a gallon and spot shortages do show up it is all over. People will rightly panic. How screwed up is it going to be when people scramble to go by gas 4 bucks a gallon. Actually 4 bucks is probably being hopeful.

It is going to be total economic melt down time.

It is going to be the worst of both worlds, people will start to be laid off but because of energy costs there will still be a lot of inflationary pressure on the economy.

The US auto industry is already toast, at 4 bucks a gallon they will become a flaming dog terd. All those service sector jobs will be first to go, going out to eat will be the first thing people cut.

What is also telling is the stores that were hurt the worst were ones geared towards teens. That makes sense if gas prices are already hurting you the first thing you do is tell Suzie no you can't by that new blouse.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'O')n another board someone brought up the point that now is the time everyone gets their tax refund checks too - business should be booming.

[Eli]

I am going to say it in bold this time
If we run out of gasoline in the US we are all fucked, it is all over, done, fini

The US runs on gas, without it the US economy is going to come to a screeching train wreck of a stop.

[mmasters]

I got a feeling too this summer is gonna be nasty and we're just on the tip of the iceburg.

[Armageddon]

The GOM is warm and ready to produce a few cat 4-5 hurricanes. The el nino winds have died down from last year which tore the potential hurricanes to pieces ( or was it the la nina ? ). $4.00 is going to seem cheap around august 15-10

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'N')aw man, they want bodies hitting the floor, old people getting beat up and robbed, cities up in flames, middle eastern countries being turned into glass, riots in all the streets, double digit depletion and inflation rates, 50% unemployment, the only store is walmart, the only food is fish from china, the only cars are from korea and the amish, we are all microchipped, the amero, a mass die off and the next 911!

[cynicalheretic]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news (I guess this depends where you stand)

The world will not collapse this year.
The stock market will go back up.
Gas prices will be temporary
Housing will drop down to two dollars.

It is going to be slow, very slow and we are going to run in continuing progressively worse yearly cycles for at least the next four years.

Just in time for 2012... those crazy Mayans.

Gas is 2.99 here in springfield mo

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'Y')ou can just feel this immense goliath of an economy making a very wide slow U-turn - like a supertanker takes miles to come to a stop the economy has been grinding along thru sheer momentum since the housing bubble popped last year.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '.')..Do you feel it ?

[Eli]

I think the people arguing for a slow decline are underestimating the power of gas shortages.

Right now oil and gasoline is based on the old dynamic of cheap plentiful oil. The producers Nations are getting a much higher price but still not fair as far as how important oil is and where we are along the peak.

First off gas shortages are going to frighten people, the prices of gasoline is going to hurt bad, but when there is no more gas left even at 4.50 a gallon this will send the US populace into shock.

With appearance of shortages things that were considered normal will no longer happen. No more taking the kids to the mall on the weekend, no more Wednesday night dinners at Outback. That big screen that went on sale will not be bought.

Consumer spending is 2/3 of the US economy when gasoline shortages show up the consumer will tighten their belt and just by the essentials of life. The US economy is built upon the non-essentials.

With the appearance of shortages people are going to take a harder look at the oil market globally. It will be a case of the Emperor's new clothes. Gas and oil will be seen in a new light for ever after, instead of being seen as something that is cheap and plentiful and can always be counted on, oil will be seen for what it is a very precious commodity that essential to modern life.


Just the change in peoples out look will change their behavior.

[Baldwin]

Right. All we need is another terrorist attack or hurricane to make investors reconsider the economy.

[Plantagenet]

Song: She
Performed by: Wide Asleep
Written by: Keith Krzinsky


It's three am in the afternoon,
And we're sinking
And kind of soggy.
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
Look out, we're sinking, maybe,
(Repeat 130 times, becoming progressively more hysterical)
B-I-N-G-O
I-N-G-O
N-G-O
G-O
O
Look out. We are, are, sinking, sinking, maybe.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he GOM is warm and ready to produce a few cat 4-5 hurricanes. The el nino winds have died down from last year which tore the potential hurricanes to pieces ( or was it the la nina ? ). $4.00 is going to seem cheap around august 15-10

[AirlinePilot]

Dont fall into the Andrea hype. Its barely a warm core depression as we speak. Its true origins are extra tropical (baroclinic) and have nothing, zero,zilch, zip, nada, to do with warm water or moist air.

[max_power29]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'D')oes the wife sneer at your MRE stash?

[Newsseeker]

That is definitely not good news for the economy.