Let's see - just thinking out loud -
Just in time inventory fails, due to trucking fuel issues or strikes, or lack of road maintenance, or all of the above
3 days later, the US supermarkets are empty
About a month later the cupboards empty
6 months later the woods are empty
Then winter hits. All the food in the fields rots.
We had plenty of food, but it wasn't where it had to be.
You get to pick the starting date of your choice, mine is when the depletion curve hits about a 15% acceleration (Bahktiari's T2 or T3?)
Remember, 45% of the Great Depresson folks still grew their own food, I think I've seen the current percentage at 3%.
PeakOil is You
Request Help On PO Aftermath
Re: Request Help On PO Aftermath
by basil_hayden » Wed 09 May 2007, 19:47:49
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Re: Request Help On PO Aftermath
by Mircea » Thu 10 May 2007, 02:24:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', 'A')re there any good articles or reports detailing the collapse of the agricultural sector with PO and climate change affecting yields?
Instead of wasting your time looking for irrelevant and/or non-existent reports to read, you might want to invest some time and money taking ECON 101/102 this summer at your local university.
PO will not result in the collapse of the agricultural sector, and gaining an understanding of basic first year economics should allay nearly all of your unfounded fears.
In fact, the agricultural sector will be the least affected of any sector of the economy.
The first sector of any economy to go is the "Soft Service Sector." That's Starsucks, the cinema shows, restaurants, colonic irrigation, massage therapy, and many other friviolites.
Then it works its way into the "Hard Service Sector." Instead of "paper or plastic" it will be "mobile or land-line" because most people won't be able to afford both (that's why they're "bundling services" -- yeah they ain't stupid), and also cable, satellite, lawn maintenance care etc etc. This also extends to business and industry who cut services like copier repair contracts, IT contracts, landscaping contracts, bottled water contracts etc etc etc.
Usually by that time it's affecting the Manufactoring Sector and the first area to get hit is durable goods, like washers, dryers, dishwashers, ranges, hot water heaters, HVAC, refridgerators and furniture. They probably already eliminated all over-time. Now what they do depends on whether they're union or non-union. Union lays off by seniority, non-union cuts back hours instead of laying off (eg everyone is working 32 hours a week).
Then the Light Manufacturing Sector and Retail Sector start getting hit.
So now we're 3-5 years into it, PO is still about 15-20 years down the road and if they haven't already done so, the Service Sector will start closing under-performing stores. State, county and local governments are laying off employees like police and firemen and admin workers, and cutting back services and hours of operation because they are laying out lots of money for unemployment and other social services, but they aren't taking any money in because no one is working and those that are ain't buying nothing.
By the time it gets to the Agricultural Sector, governments in many countries will have long since intervened. Unlike other sectors, like the Entertainment Industry, the government will subsidize the Agricultural Sector, and there are dozens of schemes to do that.
Most of the schemes are aimed at reducing food costs so that people have more disposable income to spend on trivial things, like air fresheners for your car that you can't afford to drive any longer.
In extreme cases, the government could manage the Agricultural Sector, to ensure that food grown in your state is sold in your state, which will reduce transport costs.
In any event, the Agricultural Sector will not collapse because of PO.
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Re: Request Help On PO Aftermath
by Fredrik » Thu 10 May 2007, 03:24:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'L')et's see - just thinking out loud -
Just in time inventory fails, due to trucking fuel issues or strikes, or lack of road maintenance, or all of the above
3 days later, the US supermarkets are empty
About a month later the cupboards empty
6 months later the woods are empty
Then winter hits. All the food in the fields rots.
We had plenty of food, but it wasn't where it had to be.
You get to pick the starting date of your choice, mine is when the depletion curve hits about a 15% acceleration (Bahktiari's T2 or T3?)
Remember, 45% of the Great Depresson folks still grew their own food, I think I've seen the current percentage at 3%.
Just in time inventory fails, due to trucking fuel issues or strikes, or lack of road maintenance, or all of the above
3 days later, the US supermarkets are empty
About a month later the cupboards empty
6 months later the woods are empty
Then winter hits. All the food in the fields rots.
We had plenty of food, but it wasn't where it had to be.
You get to pick the starting date of your choice, mine is when the depletion curve hits about a 15% acceleration (Bahktiari's T2 or T3?)
Remember, 45% of the Great Depresson folks still grew their own food, I think I've seen the current percentage at 3%.
Nice doomer scenario, but I think it's going to be more complicated (mercifully).
Even with a 15% acceleration of the depletion curve, there will still be enough oil to fuel harvesters and trucks (if it's rationed effectively and CTL is implemented on a large enough scale, which are both likely). Besides, it's technically possible to convert car engines to run on anything that burns (coal, wood etc.), if necessary. That won't happen on a large scale, of course, but then the food-transporting trucks are only a tiny fraction of the car fleet.
When the grim reality of depletion has hit public awareness, there will probably be a consensus about using all available fossil fuels and renewables as wisely as possible, with food production and distribution being the obvious priority. Massive demand destruction will already have decimated most other uses of oil.
The situation will be tough, desperate maybe, but I don't think that the majority of any western nation is going to starve during the first years of the collapse.
Last edited by Fredrik on Thu 10 May 2007, 05:44:26, edited 1 time in total.
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
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"A fundamental, devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desires." -Pentti Linkola
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Re: Request Help On PO Aftermath
by pea-jay » Thu 10 May 2007, 03:47:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mircea', 'P')O will not result in the collapse of the agricultural sector, and gaining an understanding of basic first year economics should allay nearly all of your unfounded fears.
In fact, the agricultural sector will be the least affected of any sector of the economy.
The first sector of any economy to go is the "Soft Service Sector." That's Starsucks, the cinema shows, restaurants, colonic irrigation, massage therapy, and many other friviolites.
Then it works its way into the "Hard Service Sector." Instead of "paper or plastic" it will be "mobile or land-line" because most people won't be able to afford both (that's why they're "bundling services" -- yeah they ain't stupid), and also cable, satellite, lawn maintenance care etc etc. This also extends to business and industry who cut services like copier repair contracts, IT contracts, landscaping contracts, bottled water contracts etc etc etc.
Usually by that time it's affecting the Manufactoring Sector and the first area to get hit is durable goods, like washers, dryers, dishwashers, ranges, hot water heaters, HVAC, refridgerators and furniture. They probably already eliminated all over-time. Now what they do depends on whether they're union or non-union. Union lays off by seniority, non-union cuts back hours instead of laying off (eg everyone is working 32 hours a week).
Then the Light Manufacturing Sector and Retail Sector start getting hit.
So now we're 3-5 years into it, PO is still about 15-20 years down the road and if they haven't already done so, the Service Sector will start closing under-performing stores. State, county and local governments are laying off employees like police and firemen and admin workers, and cutting back services and hours of operation because they are laying out lots of money for unemployment and other social services, but they aren't taking any money in because no one is working and those that are ain't buying nothing.
By the time it gets to the Agricultural Sector, governments in many countries will have long since intervened. Unlike other sectors, like the Entertainment Industry, the government will subsidize the Agricultural Sector, and there are dozens of schemes to do that.
Most of the schemes are aimed at reducing food costs so that people have more disposable income to spend on trivial things, like air fresheners for your car that you can't afford to drive any longer.
In extreme cases, the government could manage the Agricultural Sector, to ensure that food grown in your state is sold in your state, which will reduce transport costs.
In any event, the Agricultural Sector will not collapse because of PO.
In fact, the agricultural sector will be the least affected of any sector of the economy.
The first sector of any economy to go is the "Soft Service Sector." That's Starsucks, the cinema shows, restaurants, colonic irrigation, massage therapy, and many other friviolites.
Then it works its way into the "Hard Service Sector." Instead of "paper or plastic" it will be "mobile or land-line" because most people won't be able to afford both (that's why they're "bundling services" -- yeah they ain't stupid), and also cable, satellite, lawn maintenance care etc etc. This also extends to business and industry who cut services like copier repair contracts, IT contracts, landscaping contracts, bottled water contracts etc etc etc.
Usually by that time it's affecting the Manufactoring Sector and the first area to get hit is durable goods, like washers, dryers, dishwashers, ranges, hot water heaters, HVAC, refridgerators and furniture. They probably already eliminated all over-time. Now what they do depends on whether they're union or non-union. Union lays off by seniority, non-union cuts back hours instead of laying off (eg everyone is working 32 hours a week).
Then the Light Manufacturing Sector and Retail Sector start getting hit.
So now we're 3-5 years into it, PO is still about 15-20 years down the road and if they haven't already done so, the Service Sector will start closing under-performing stores. State, county and local governments are laying off employees like police and firemen and admin workers, and cutting back services and hours of operation because they are laying out lots of money for unemployment and other social services, but they aren't taking any money in because no one is working and those that are ain't buying nothing.
By the time it gets to the Agricultural Sector, governments in many countries will have long since intervened. Unlike other sectors, like the Entertainment Industry, the government will subsidize the Agricultural Sector, and there are dozens of schemes to do that.
Most of the schemes are aimed at reducing food costs so that people have more disposable income to spend on trivial things, like air fresheners for your car that you can't afford to drive any longer.
In extreme cases, the government could manage the Agricultural Sector, to ensure that food grown in your state is sold in your state, which will reduce transport costs.
In any event, the Agricultural Sector will not collapse because of PO.
Generally, I agree with your assessment. To a point anyway. Barring calamaties, things will unravel, gently at first (already underway by any estimate of it) and then accelerate, much like the depletion rate. The unraveling wont be smooth and may contain a recovery here and there. At some point however, things will begin to spiral out of control though, either because of an external blow or some vital sector has become unglued so to speak. This will be our first bonefide "crash." Depending on the severity it will affect the government's ability to mitigate. Regardless, it will start to affect all sectors and really put the vise grip the economy and stop/limit the government's actions. At some point if we havent mitigated this whole energy issue, large national governments will likely disintegrate to more localized rule.
So there you have it. Slide - slope - crash.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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Re: Request Help On PO Aftermath
by Judgie » Thu 10 May 2007, 06:48:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')When the grim reality of depletion has hit public awareness, there will probably be a consensus about using all available fossil fuels and renewables as wisely as possible,
')When the grim reality of depletion has hit public awareness, there will probably be a consensus about using all available fossil fuels and renewables as wisely as possible,
Not so sure on the consensus bit. That imply getting the vote/opinion/etc of almost everyone who is entitled to vote, in a Post-Peak Oil world where such an undertaking would be much more difficult IMHO.
And if "wisely" implies cutting back drastically on today's extravagant (relatively) lifestyles, where one can't have his or her's own house/ 2 or more cars, plasma T.V., or more likely big stereo and huge cd collection as an extreme appreciation of music (where music is snoop doggey dog, blue king brown, eminem, britney spears, etc, you get the idea) seems to be almost a cultural requirement for every individual at the moment among my generation and 5 - 8+ years either way, then you're going to run into one hell of a brick-wall in 1st world society.
Edit:
The next person who meets me for the first time and ask's me what bands I like as their first question after name exchange, will be phonged on site without hesitation.
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