[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')So if you want more organized crime and corruption, support rationing. Lord knows I do.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'U')nfortunately that means 5 billion people will need to die off.

I think they are already starting to die off. The images of starving people in the 3rd World have been ubuquitous my whole life. I can't wait to see how massive depopulation through starvation and war is repackaged for our TV watching public. How will they make it palatable for us? Which Hollywood star will lead the Telethon to Save the Victims of the Post Peak Cataclysm?

-Ian

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'I') think some form of rationing is inevitable. You cannot just allow the free market to price people out. Some low wage earners still have important roles in the economy. What happens if the people who work in grocery stores cannot afford to drive to work?

[NEOPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'A')ren't we rationed anyways considering the inequality of wealth distribution?

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')hese days, rationing is a sure way of losing control of a situation. However, that doesn't mean it won't be tried.

Rationing worked well in the UK during WW1 and WW2, but this was with a uniquely compliant population and a black market formed even so. Trying it today, when everyone has an entrepreneurial attitude to money-making (once exposed to eBay, never the same), you are going to have BIG problems.

In comparison, leaving market forces to price people out would result in a more orderly redistribution of consumption, with less economic distortion involving criminal enterprise.

But since governments miss the paradigm shift on just about every cultural change, they're going to try it.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'I') think some form of rationing is inevitable. You cannot just allow the free market to price people out. Some low wage earners still have important roles in the economy. What happens if the people who work in grocery stores cannot afford to drive to work?

[Twilight]

I am not taking a pro free market position at all, I am simply making the observation that these days people exploit or rebel against being shafted by the government a lot sooner than when they're being shafted by market forces. Governments offer a target for anger and a static set of rules to exploit, market forces usually offer no face and are completely dynamic. Like it or not, in this situation government intervention will be a catalyzing force for all sorts of deliberately executed chaos. Ad hoc reaction to market changes may be the lesser of two evils. However, I doubt we will have much for comparison.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I') am not taking a pro free market position at all, I am simply making the observation that these days people exploit or rebel against being shafted by the government a lot sooner than when they're being shafted by market forces. Governments offer a target for anger and a static set of rules to exploit, market forces usually offer no face and are completely dynamic. Like it or not, in this situation government intervention will be a catalyzing force for all sorts of deliberately executed chaos. Ad hoc reaction to market changes may be the lesser of two evils. However, I doubt we will have much for comparison.

[IslandCrow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '.')... these days people exploit or rebel against being shafted by the government a lot sooner than when they're being shafted by market forces. Governments offer a target for anger and a static set of rules to exploit, market forces usually offer no face and are completely dynamic.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')And how much of a bureaucracy will we have to administer this? To hear the countless appeals? To prosecute the (many) violators?

How do we pay for it?

Do we dare create another great hulking bureaucracy at the same time the structure of our civilization creaks and groans under the weight of previous bureaucracies?

For a taste of how well it would work, look at what FEMA did during Katrina. Will the new rationing police do better? Why should we assume that?

[Twilight]

In previous examples of rationing, the understanding was that it was a temporary measure. In future it could be sold as such, but not for long, because enough people know that it won't be temporary. When at times in the past, people were limited to £10 or 10 litres of fuel in any one purchase, the rationing (imposed, by the way, by companies) was met with broad acquiescence. There was none of this "You're going to have less next year than today, and your children nothing", which at the end of the day is what we are talking about. Electricity rationing won't be met with a shrug of the shoulders either, once it is explained the ration will diminish over time. That's a different animal. I wonder how any system will be tenable, in light of the facts.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I')n previous examples of rationing, the understanding was that it was a temporary measure. In future it could be sold as such, but not for long, because enough people know that it won't be temporary. When at times in the past, people were limited to £10 or 10 litres of fuel in any one purchase, the rationing (imposed, by the way, by companies) was met with broad acquiescence. There was none of this "You're going to have less next year than today, and your children nothing", which at the end of the day is what we are talking about. Electricity rationing won't be met with a shrug of the shoulders either, once it is explained the ration will diminish over time. That's a different animal. I wonder how any system will be tenable, in light of the facts.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'd')oes Jevons paradox apply in a rationed regime?

[dohboi]

Jack, you bring up many thoughtful points that need to be seriously addressed, but this one I find bogus:

"For a taste of how well it would work, look at what FEMA did during Katrina. Will the new rationing police do better? Why should we assume that?"

FEMA was a model of a well run agency until Bush and the neo-cons got in and destroyed it, putting "heck of a job" Brown in charge. Then they have the temerity to turn around and point at the failure of the FEMA they shattered as evidence that government can't work. This is beyond self-fulfilling prophecy. You could point at Iraq as proof that the military could never be relied on to do anything, and hey, you might be right there, but perhaps for the wrong reason.

In times of war, rationing systems have worked quite well--not perfectly, but not disasterously. It is quite likely that we have all been too thoroughly brainwashed with ideologies of greed to accept the concept of common sacrifice for the common good.

But (on my increasingly rare) optimistic days, I would say that this is part of the mindset we need to question and confront, rather than promote or give in to. It, like much else, is doubtless a hopeless task, but that is the nature of most of what we talk about when we discuss trying to avoid the absolute worst consequences of PO.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'F')EMA was a model of a well run agency until Bush and the neo-cons got in and destroyed it, putting "heck of a job" Brown in charge. Then they have the temerity to turn around and point at the failure of the FEMA they shattered as evidence that government can't work. This is beyond self-fulfilling prophecy. You could point at Iraq as proof that the military could never be relied on to do anything, and hey, you might be right there, but perhaps for the wrong reason.

In times of war, rationing systems have worked quite well--not perfectly, but not disasterously. It is quite likely that we have all been too thoroughly brainwashed with ideologies of greed to accept the concept of common sacrifice for the common good.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'd')oes Jevons paradox apply in a rationed regime?

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'J')ack, you bring up many thoughtful points that need to be seriously addressed, but this one I find bogus:

"For a taste of how well it would work, look at what FEMA did during Katrina. Will the new rationing police do better? Why should we assume that?"

FEMA was a model of a well run agency until Bush and the neo-cons got in and destroyed it, putting "heck of a job" Brown in charge. Then they have the temerity to turn around and point at the failure of the FEMA they shattered as evidence that government can't work. This is beyond self-fulfilling prophecy. You could point at Iraq as proof that the military could never be relied on to do anything, and hey, you might be right there, but perhaps for the wrong reason.

In times of war, rationing systems have worked quite well--not perfectly, but not disasterously. It is quite likely that we have all been too thoroughly brainwashed with ideologies of greed to accept the concept of common sacrifice for the common good.

But (on my increasingly rare) optimistic days, I would say that this is part of the mindset we need to question and confront, rather than promote or give in to. It, like much else, is doubtless a hopeless task, but that is the nature of most of what we talk about when we discuss trying to avoid the absolute worst consequences of PO.

[dohboi]

Jack wrote:

"what, exactly, is an American? A few decades ago, the answer was clear. The U.S. was, to a great extent, a homogeneous society. That's no longer true. I suspect the same development exists in a variety of other nations. So - when we have little connection with our neighbors (in both the literal and figurative sense), when we don't understand them and quite probably don't even like them (nor they us) - will we engage in this shared sacrifice? Will we care about the common good? It can be argued that the common foe of privation will forge the bonds I allude to. Perhaps. But I suspect everyone will scratch about for the greatest personal advantage, or benefits for small subgroups. Your mileage may vary."

On the one hand, I'm not sure there was ever a golden age of American homgeneity (spelling?). On the other, the situation is in fact much worse than what you suggest. For any rationing system to do anything other than drive down or stabalize the price so that other countries can buy more, the rationing will have to be global. People will need to be ready to sacrifice for the common good of all people (and other critters) on the planet. If that doesn't sound starry-eyed utopian, I don't know what does. But that's what it will take, as far as I can see. Most likely nothing will work. Hence our recurrent chant on these forums:

doom, doom, doom...

mididoctors, as earlier postings have pointed out, there is already enormous corruption in the system--have you been reading the papers the last decade? Have we already forgotten Enron and all the others? Is bureaucratic corruption worse than corporate corruption?

Let's not fall into the neocon delusion that government can do no right and corporations can do no wrong. It is just as idiotic as the liberal converse (or is it obverse?).

All the best,
Doh! boy

"Go now and die in what way seems best to you!" King Denethor to Pippin in The Return of the King, J.R.R. Tolkien

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')
mididoctors, as earlier postings have pointed out, there is already enormous corruption in the system--have you been reading the papers the last decade? Have we already forgotten Enron and all the others? Is bureaucratic corruption worse than corporate corruption?

Let's not fall into the neocon delusion that government can do no right and corporations can do no wrong. It is just as idiotic as the liberal converse (or is it obverse?).

[gg3]

Rationing is a viable solution for short-term emergencies but won't work as a long-term powerdown measure.

For the long term: Relentlessly increase the efficiency standards on vehicles and on building HVAC systems and on appliances. Do it under the claim of energy independence.

Start by deregulating the importation of high-efficiency vehicles: any car that gets more than, for example, 70 miles per gallon. This would produce a microcar boom overnight and leave the US Big Three begging for relief. Then tell the Big Three: yes we'll bail you out but only on the condition that the bailout is used to retool for competing with those high-efficiency imported vehicles.

Note: At present you can buy electric cars, hybrids, and high-efficiency internal combustion vehicles overseas but these are illegal in the US due to "safety issues" such as how they would do in a collision with an SUV. As soon as we see a flood of these things on the market, the liability premiums on microcar-squishing SUVs will soar, helping re-internalize the costs of those behemoths via purely market forces.

At the same time as we deregulate the importation of high-efficiency cars, we also start jacking up the gas tax and using it to subsidize a) bus and rail systems, b) construction of solar, wind, and nuclear, c) paying off the Iraq war debt. (I'm no great fan of taxes, being on a first-name basis with a couple of guys at IRS and at least one at the CA State Franchise Tax Board. However, there are occasions, and this is one of them.)

As for Jevons, remember that any increase in efficiency is an economic benefit to the person or business who/that does it. So even if the costs of fuel come down in response to conservation, those who are operating efficiently are at an advantage over those who are not.