by evilgenius » Thu 03 May 2007, 07:08:09
Yeah, Radio 4 had a guy on this am talking about the black swan theory. You know, that until the English discovered Australia all the people thought that swans were white. They laughed at people who said anything else was possible. Finding black swans changed everything.
I was in the super market a couple of days ago and the power went out. It was eerie. I thought, this is how it is going to happen. When the first country of import realizes how close things really are and that the time for acting is now they will act to change the world in the black swan way. It will be as if the power simply never came back. All of the new deliveries never came.
I'm thinking that country will be Russia. The US has already acted to change the world with its invasion of Iraq. That is something they would never have dared in cold war times. The reasons they never would have dared go without saying. Why is it that some, the bulk, of those reasons don't still exist although in the context of a different balance of power.
On top of it all, of course, the US has also failed to use a proxy to take over Iraq so there is no one to leave holding the bag while they get out. Also no one to strengthen so that a strong central authority can hold the place together. Chaos seems to be what they actually want for Iraq. That could only be the case if they want to halt what might develop naturally in post war Iraq while they foster something else. That something else is overdue. There is bound to be a world change either when it comes or when it, in spite of US efforts, fails to materialize.
There also will be Russia kicking at the ball while this all goes on.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."