[Falconoffury]

Economically, are you expecting a bunch of smaller milestones on the road to the next great depression, or one huge one that eclipses all other possible small milestones? A day of reckoning so big that everybody forgets how they got there?

I honestly think "the elite" are planning for this. They want to take all the problems in the USA and bottle them together in a single crash. I think the Fed could pull it off using a credit crunch. Imagine if no more loans were issued, and no more money were created. Banks all across the country would freeze all accounts. Our ports that accept oil tankers would shut down because the businesses that support them would no longer be able to pay their employees. The entire energy sector would be shut down. That would mean no more filling up at the gas station, and no more food coming in.

So instead of a gradual decline in oil, we would have a sudden crash engineered by the Fed. Could this happen?

[vision-master]

Lot's of gun owners in the USA.

[Sheb]

As for a relative "single day of reckoning", anything is possible. We are definitly vulnerable on multiple fronts (Fuel, housing, and weather...and don't forget China's $1T US cash bank account).

I am reminded of a Dilbert cartoon. The gist is that the Pointy-Haired boss (PHB) is explaining to his workers that their enviro group has found their water perfectly safe for drinking. Dilbert then asks why the PHB is drinking bottled water. PHP replies..."Because that's what the Enviro Group Drinks" (paraphrased).

If you are in an airplane, and the pilot suddenly puts his seatbelt on, then, regardless of what he *says*, you might consider putting your safety belt on.

Likewise, if The-Powers-That-Be (TPTB) appear to be taking some kind of action--either as organizations or as individuals--then regardless of what they say, you may want to do what they do.

We should all have Plan's A, B, & C. It's not easy...hell, I'm still on Phase T1. But it might just save your skin. Oh, and you don't have to *expect* something bad in order preparations to be in order. Just as putting on your seatbelt does not mean you *expect* to wreck your car.

[Tyler_JC]

Rome wasn't built in a day.

It's nearly impossible to pin point the exact "Day of Reckoning" for anything. We still have people arguing about what caused the Great Depression.

When global oil production peaks, we won't know for several years. Heck, some claim it peaked back in 2006. Have you seen any fuel riots in the streets, empty grocery stores, or mass panic?

In my humble opinion, there will be no single Day when TSHTF.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'S')o instead of a gradual decline in oil, we would have a sudden crash engineered by the Fed. Could this happen?

[Niagara]

I suppose with the financial world so tightly coupled via computers and networks, a chain reaction could happen.

Think of all the trillions of virtual dollars in derivatives. Not to mentioned the highly leveraged stock, bond and currency markets.

Imagine a meltdown, which could happen very fast, perhaps within one day. This would trigger computerized trades. Massive sell orders would automatically kick in, only adding to the snowball effect. Panic would ensue. I can see it happening.

Billions of dollars of vapor-wealth could vanish in a heartbeat if this happened. The guvmint would likely declare a bank holiday and freeze the markets, but it would be too late. The damage would be done.

[Twilight]

Nuclear war and total market collapse are the only ways civilisation can end overnight. Otherwise, it's like a wounded animal, it will stumble along carried by reflexes and momentum a surprising distance before collapsing. Even the USSR did this for two years before falling, and it was several more years before the remnants reached rock bottom.

[eXpat]

I would take this article with a grain of salt, link here, but if is true and the Carlyle Group said they see another 12 to 24-months or more of “excess liquidity,” i would seriously start stocking up.

[mmasters]

I absolutely believe there will be a worldwide market collapse around 2009 and it will be a milestone event.

However we still have a few years to go because the world isn't fully globalized yet.

All the fed has to do is lower rates while boj raises rates (global liquidity/carry trade crunch). There's a number of different ways it could be further played with derivatives and such. I would guess for the global market in general to lose at least 70% (and up to 90%) of it's value along with the USD and most other currencies.

As a result of the above I predict an enormous landslide of cash into gold whereafter a secondary crash will take place.

At the end of the day there will be an extreme consolidation of global wealth.

Best ride the wave!

[MaterialExcess]

I most definitely see a single huge day or perhaps a couple huge days of reckoning in the financial markets. They have a tendency to go down in big chunks. I don't think a market crash alone will cause the general collapse of society. I don't think a crash is being intentionally orchestrated by the Fed or others either.

[topcat]

IMO, to be a one-day event, the only possibilities are someone starts lobbing nukes or a massive electronic black/blow out that crashes international markets whereby vaporizing trillions of dollars.

Not looking forward to either.

[I_Like_Plants]

I think cascade type failures are the signature of our type of system. Remember when the lights went out on the East Coast, or Katrina, various stock panics, etc., all cascade type failures.

What saved the USSR from a much worse crash and yes I mean mutant zombie bikers and cannibalism, was its ineffeciency.

I'd rather see a long slow road to hell myself, but systems like ours tend to collapse in cascade fashion.

[pea-jay]

I think the single day theory needs to have some calamitous act of aggression (either from the outside or inside) to bring the house down. Could be a nuke exchange or EMP blase. Still I tend to think it more remote than anything else. What we may have is a day that everyone looks back at as a watershed event, such as Black Tuesday in 1929 or 9-11 as a day when our outlook changed dramatically, though in reality very little was physicically or economically impacted by the instigating event.

Or we may just muddle through taking several steps down while pausing to recvover or even grow a little before resuming the fall.

[KhanCEO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hen global oil production peaks, we won't know for several years. Heck, some claim it peaked back in 2006. Have you seen any fuel riots in the streets, empty grocery stores, or mass panic?

[Falconoffury]

I think the bank freeze hypothesis I am presenting is seperate from the market crash, though they are closely related. Suppose bank insurance itself fails. Will banks freeze accounts to survive? Supposing that all big banks are controlled by the same cabal of international bankers, and supposing that the market crash is bad enough, the idea is that all major banks will simultaneously freeze accounts to survive. In effect, your money in the bank would be off limits.

Banks, the Fed, and the government collectively already have more control over our bank accounts than ever. Any bank transfers greater than $2500 must now be reported to the government. Wasn't it $10000 some years ago? It looks to me like they have put all the infrastructure together that they need in order to restrict our accounts whenever they deem necessary.

[I_Like_Plants]

I seem to remember it being anything larger than $5000.

[Newsseeker]

Once the world is facing a yearly 5% decline I think it will be time to expect the Reckoning. Until then, I see much of the same.

[Baldwin]

It will be when the sheeple with their "investing for the lazy" mutual funds and such bail out.