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Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 20:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18159257/ Global oil production will peak sometime between next year and 2018 and then decline, according to a controversial new model developed by a Swedish physicist.
-snip- And once production starts declining, there could be major supply problems, analysts say, especially when it comes to transportation—cars, aircraft, trains and boats are today without a ready alternative to petroleum-based liquid fuels.

One of the first things I do after work nowadays is to do a Google news search using the words "peak oil". I prefer to read foreign news sources because I believe them more than I beleive our press. I am finding that Peak Oil is finding more and more mainstream media attention. Could be sign that the peak oil dam is breaking.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Valdemar » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 20:54:54

You too? I do likewise now, my fascination in the subject as of late annoying my old folks and brother.

Still, I can't help but think 2018 is a tad optimistic. Are we really meant to believe we're going to increase capacity for over another decade?
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 21:18:03

Until proven otherwise 2005/2006 was the peak.
Rookies! :o
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby MD » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 21:56:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'U')ntil proven otherwise 2005/2006 was the peak.
Rookies! :o


Massa Podunk speak Truth in this regard. Pay attention.
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Just think it through.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby eunos » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 23:00:00

Even though, as other posters have stated, their estimate of peak seems wildly optimistic, this article still makes me happy.

MSNBC is definitely "mainstream", and they come right out and report the issue of peak oil without using the words "fringe", "crackpot", or "rich, creamy nougat".

We should be happy; this kind of mainstream attention, with no punches pulled, is what you guys have been bitching about for years. Now it's here, and it's just not good enough.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby NEOPO » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 23:14:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eunos', 'E')ven though, as other posters have stated, their estimate of peak seems wildly optimistic, this article still makes me happy.

MSNBC is definitely "mainstream", and they come right out and report the issue of peak oil without using the words "fringe", "crackpot", or "rich, creamy nougat".

We should be happy; this kind of mainstream attention, with no punches pulled, is what you guys have been bitching about for years. Now it's here, and it's just not good enough.


Happy?
MSNBC did not acknowledge the root of my first response here and they ended it all with Lynch and Kazman for fucks sake!

You know you love me MD :roll:
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 23:29:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', '.')..and they ended it all with Lynch and Kazman for fucks sake!


Which demonstrates to me one of the most balanced news stories I've seen in quite some time. It's a damn good start and eunos was right, there is no wisecracking about peak oil in this news item.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Lore » Tue 17 Apr 2007, 23:58:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'U')ntil proven otherwise 2005/2006 was the peak.
Rookies! :o


Massa Podunk speak Truth in this regard. Pay attention.


Makes me want to r-u-n-n o-f-t !
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Micki » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 00:19:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the first things I do after work nowadays is to do a Google news search using the words "peak oil".


You do know that you can subscribe to this so you get emails with the headlines. I have set up to get these to my job mail so I get the news throughout the day. I find this easier than having to go in and google.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Eli » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 00:24:20

A couple of choice quotes

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ynch thinks that the oil peak lies farther into the future, partially because there’s likely to be a lot of oil in as-yet undiscovered smaller fields.

“You don’t go looking for them until you run out of the giant fields,” Lynch said in a telephone interview. Robelius, and others like him, he said, suffer from a “perceptual problem—‘if I don’t see it, it must not be there.’”



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')Kazman)Just because giant oil fields have been important for oil production in the past, he said, “does not mean that they’re going to stay important in the future.”


These guys are complete tools. Yeah 4000 thousand little fields will be found in Mexico to make up Cantarell.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby waegari » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 04:53:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', ' ')I prefer to read foreign news sources because I believe them more than I beleive our press. I am finding that Peak Oil is finding more and more mainstream media attention. Could be sign that the peak oil dam is breaking.


Over here in Dutch mainstream media peak oil still hardly exists. Of if it is brought up at all, they soothingly tell us that the peak is still about 30 years away. Yergin is one of their favorites. And of course we have Jeroen van der Veer, who is just coming round and telling us, we shouldn't worry, there's plenty of oil out there, just a little hard to get by, but we're working on that, don't you see, here's the Shell commercial (the one on the level of their technology, almost a feature film), now you can all go on with your lives and have fun.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 06:56:09

This is the same dissertation we have discussed in several previous threads, like these:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28385.html
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28022.html

Maybe time for some moderator action?


Anyway, the deal is this. If the oil reserves are small and demand grows ar 1,7 % per year, we peak in 2008. If they are big we peak in 2013. If they are big and demand growth is cut to 1,4 % we peak in 2018.

Image

Image
The higher-end standard case.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 09:11:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'U')ntil proven otherwise 2005/2006 was the peak.
Rookies! :o


Agreed. It starts off as a slow decline and then speeds up until it becomes a cliff.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 09:16:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')

Anyway, the deal is this. If the oil reserves are small and demand grows ar 1,7 % per year, we peak in 2008. If they are big we peak in 2013. If they are big and demand growth is cut to 1,4 % we peak in 2018.



Duncan also puts his forecast for peak at 2007 which is very close to 2008. 2018 is unrealistic and I feel sometimes that we are bickering over minutiae because ten years is a short period of time and most forecasts put the peak at 2005-2015. In the GAO report 11 out of the 20 forecasts put the peak now. That wakeup call went completely unnoticed.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Starvid » Wed 18 Apr 2007, 12:33:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')his is the same dissertation we have discussed in several previous threads, like these . . .Maybe time for some moderator action?


What's your concern? You don't want the PO.com harddrive to have an extra few thousand bytes on it?
I was thinking of merging the threads instead of starting new ones all the time.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 10:40:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')his is the same dissertation we have discussed in several previous threads, like these . . .Maybe time for some moderator action?


What's your concern? You don't want the PO.com harddrive to have an extra few thousand bytes on it?
I was thinking of merging the threads instead of starting new ones all the time.



It is deja vu all over again but I am kind of surprised that this doctoral thesis made such waves.
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Re: Global oil production to peak by 2018 (MSNBC.com)

Unread postby Starvid » Thu 19 Apr 2007, 14:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')

Anyway, the deal is this. If the oil reserves are small and demand grows ar 1,7 % per year, we peak in 2008. If they are big we peak in 2013. If they are big and demand growth is cut to 1,4 % we peak in 2018.



Duncan also puts his forecast for peak at 2007 which is very close to 2008. 2018 is unrealistic and I feel sometimes that we are bickering over minutiae because ten years is a short period of time and most forecasts put the peak at 2005-2015. In the GAO report 11 out of the 20 forecasts put the peak now. That wakeup call went completely unnoticed.

What are the credentials of this Mr. Duncan?

I haven't heard of him before.
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