by MattSavinar » Sun 25 Jul 2004, 18:27:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hydro', 'A')SPO says 2008, Savinar says 2005, Simmons says 2010, IEA says 2030, Department of energy says somewhere between 2010-2020.
So here's the damn point. How the hell can anyone just arbitrarily pick one of those as "the one" because its a fact that none of them can, with 100% certainty, say how much proven reserves there are left. On top of that, we have no idea what the demand for oil will be with the alternatives coming online, and further, we have no idea how to predict technology's role in prolonging well declines.
Point being, nobody knows, and nobody can say for sure. So cut the crap.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('entropyfails', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hydro', 'B')aloney. Nobody knows when this so called "peak" is going to happen. There is all the time in the world to set these things up. Obviously they can't become a "source" for oil because they're just pulling up 85% efficiency. However when you consider how much human and animal waste, garbage, and left over agricultural waste there is, this could extend the peak for oil, way into the future if at all.
ASPO says 2008 for peak oil. Do you have better data? I doubt it, because you didn't post it.
Human waste, as I pointed out, is 134 times less than agricultural waste. It doesn't even form a blip given the quantites we are talking about.
Agricultural waste, as I pointed out, does not have the ability to give us more than 10% of our current oil requirements. Now if you use your critical thinking skills, and see that 9 out of 10 calories that we eat come from oil related processes, you will find that 10% quantity will shrink AS we run out of oil due to there not being enough agriculture to convert.
Garbage, as I pointed out, serves only as a non-renewable resource as we go back, dig up the garbage, and convert it back to oil. We hopefully will do this, but no one has as of yet. So we don't even know if we CAN get much back from our dumps. Hopefully we can start reclaiming our tires, however. That seems like the biggest "win" right now. But all of these processes require TONS of work, ie not cheap oil.
I don't even know where to begin to correct this issue. No one else does either, other than fight over the scraps. Your blind faith in civilization, well, blinds you. Civilizations cannot work. They rely on false premises and eternal war against other species and thus ultimately cannot keep sustaining themselves. 200 years from now, no civilizations will exist. The question to us, our choice, comes down to this.
"Do we want humans to exist in 200 years?"
I say yes. Most other people, due to their ignorance, say no. I hope their minds will change.
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EntropyFails