[gg3]

They're still all over AM radio in the San Francisco Bay area.

Every five minutes would be a change for the better, sometimes I run across them simultaneously on three stations.

Go into debt, get out of debt, consolidate your debt, declare bankruptcy, go back into bigger debt... it gets so annoying I'll just turn off the radio entirely.

And then of course the SUV ads, all of which appear to be in "beg mode" at the moment, trying anything to get people to buy living rooms on wheels while gas is at $3.35/gallon locally.

Five years ago you'd hear ads for products such as Pepperidge Farm Goldfish snacks and Smucker's Jams & Jellies and even milk ("Farms? In Berkeley? Mooooo!"). Nowadays when those kinds of ads come on they are so rare they're almost a form of entertainment.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '.')..Did the Fed and other Regulators grok to the idea that we are truly fucked and one last party will do us fine before the inevitable crash.
Or do they and other economists buy their own hype that the economy can just keep growing and growing, Energiser bunny style...

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'O')r did it grow out of the entitlement mentality that has overtaken our culture over the last decade or so?

[Plantagenet]

caveat emptor

[Plantagenet]

Why should the taxpayer bail out real estate speculators?
The quickest way to make housing more affordable for average Americans is to allow the real estate speculators to default on their loans.
This will bring more foreclosed low-priced housing stock onto the market for Americans who previously couldn't afford it.

[max_power29]

When I was a loan officer in 2000, only people with high incomes could get "sub-prime" loans. We called them "band-aid" loans back then. they were for professionals like doctors or whatever that had lots of cash but had bad credit because they couldnt manage their finances.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', 'W')hen I was a loan officer in 2000, only people with high incomes could get "sub-prime" loans. We called them "band-aid" loans back then. they were for professionals like doctors or whatever that had lots of cash but had bad credit because they couldnt manage their finances.

[TorrKing]

Maybe a little far off here, but this is an idea. With the housing bubble collapsing, maybe more people will do like this self obsessed bastard. When loosing his home to foreclosure he is thinking about moving into his car: Living in a car
Maybe a lot of people will do that, thus keeping the demand destruction on gasoline minimal (except for the real shortages of course). When you don't have a house, you free a lot of money to use for gasoline instead.
What do you think?

[benzoil]

Torjus-
Casey Serin is the poster child for the housing bubble in the U.S. He's 24 years old and lied through his teeth on his no documentation required loans. That's still fraud in the U.S. and elsewhere, I assume!

The bursting of the housing bubble will definitely result in some demand destruction because there's a very good chance that the housing bubble will put a knife through debt-financed consumer spending in the U.S. The resulting recession should be traumatic enough that it affects oil demand in the U.S. I wouldn't be surprised if a serious U.S. recession affected China/India demand as well, given the amount of importing/outsourcing the U.S. does with those countries.

There are some good posts on thehousingbubbleblog.com. There are a few Peak Oilers over there, but not the majority. If you want to watch the slow motion train wreck from the front row, it's a good site. They reference the moronic Mr. Serin a lot!

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'M')aybe a little far off here, but this is an idea. With the housing bubble collapsing, maybe more people will do like this self obsessed bastard. When loosing his home to foreclosure he is thinking about moving into his car: Living in a car
Maybe a lot of people will do that, thus keeping the demand destruction on gasoline minimal (except for the real shortages of course). When you don't have a house, you free a lot of money to use for gasoline instead.
What do you think?

[MattSavinar]

Here's what's amazing, from the SF Chron article on the guy, emphasis added:
[quote]Still, he doesn't seem to see those birds crashing to the ground. Serin estimates that even if he can sell all of his properties with short sales, he'll still be $200,000 to $400,000 in debt. "It's pretty scary," he concedes, sounding not at all scared. How will he escape? "I could go back and get a job and just work for a living, but even if I get a Web designer position that pays $50,000 to $70,000 a year, my payments on my debt are still going to be $3,000 to $3,700 bucks a month. I could file for bankruptcy," he pauses. "Or I could see if I can do a few more real estate deals."
Suddenly his voice has the buoyancy of a true believer. "To succeed in real estate you have to have the right knowledge and the ability to take action. I fell down this year. But I'm not going to go out without a fight." /quote]

[TorrKing]

He isn't informed about ramifications of peak oil, that's for sure. Or maybe he is just stupid.

A firm believer in the American dream. Ah, how cute.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'H')ere's what's amazing, from the SF Chron article on the guy, emphasis added:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')till, he doesn't seem to see those birds crashing to the ground. Serin estimates that even if he can sell all of his properties with short sales, he'll still be $200,000 to $400,000 in debt. "It's pretty scary," he concedes, sounding not at all scared. How will he escape? "I could go back and get a job and just work for a living, but even if I get a Web designer position that pays $50,000 to $70,000 a year, my payments on my debt are still going to be $3,000 to $3,700 bucks a month. I could file for bankruptcy," he pauses. "Or I could see if I can do a few more real estate deals."
Suddenly his voice has the buoyancy of a true believer. "To succeed in real estate you have to have the right knowledge and the ability to take action. I fell down this year. But I'm not going to go out without a fight."

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'H')e isn't informed about ramifications of peak oil, that's for sure. Or maybe he is just stupid.
A firm believer in the American dream. Ah, how cute.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'O')h lord. Living out of your car and "blogging" your story. Another in the great line of scams.

[dissimulo]

Wow - that site is pure comedy gold.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'H')ey, if Matt can hawk solar ovens to people who don't need them and never will, whats wrong with another shyster making a living doing the same thing on a different subject?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'W')ow, you were creative enough to mock my sun oven sales. Gee whiz, that's new on this board!
You're a creative one, that's for sure. Maybe you want a cookie?

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'W')ow, you were creative enough to mock my sun oven sales. Gee whiz, that's new on this board!
You're a creative one, that's for sure. Maybe you want a cookie?

[Micki]

It's not loosing the house that creates the demand destruction.
It is the huge amount of loan defaults (banking crisis) that together with a collapsing building industry (no sales) combined with failing consumer spending (no equity left to draw and credit cards maxed out) that will result in HUGE number of bancrupcies and usher in a new depression.
THAT should result in demand destruction.

A few years ago I however wrote a post called something like "party to go on without US" where my thinking was that Europe/Asia could recover from US fall from grace. This would result in continued demand for oil.
I just read Peter Schiffs new book, "Crash proof" and he was into same thinking.

If so, oil should be too expensive for most Americans, resulting in demand drop resulting in price drop, which then is offset my renewed consumer demand mainly from Europe and Asia.

The reason I think Europe will do OK from the first crash is becasue it makes sense to China. Make Euro strong and put Europe in the same seat as US was. Pretty soon China owns 2 continents.

A more dramatic depletion of oil would of course throw a spanner in the works, but I think serious demand destruction from US would hide the effects of PO for the rest of the world for some more years.