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25 by 25

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

25 by 25

Unread postby highlander » Thu 12 Apr 2007, 12:01:10

I've posted a link to the 25x'25 web site. Of note is the study done by U of Tenn. related to agricultures role in this grand scheme. On page 33 they have a graph showing different sectors contributions to the overall plan.

Having recently returned from a workshop where the results from the study were presented, I had a few observations.

First, the use of ethanol will not grow that much.
Second, the growth of biofuels will be accomplished without seriously impacting food production, and without major increase in acreage
third, nothing of note is scheduled to occur until 2011. I believe this is planned. If the cost of energy increases (is allowed to increase?) the conversion of cropland will be an easier sell.
finally, conservation does not factor in at least in a meaningful way.

Will 25 by 25 be a success. I think so, but not like they plan.

They plan for a 24% growth in energy use and stable supply of petrol fuels.

I know you doomers and biofuel nay sayers are going to love to chew this report up and spit it out (are you listening PStarr?) But it seems to be well thought out except for using the assumptions of continued growth and stable output of petroleum energy, which are probably fatal flaws.


http://www.25x25.org/index.php?option=c ... &Itemid=73
This is where everybody puts profound words written by another...or not so profound words written by themselves
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Re: 25 by 25

Unread postby Jack » Thu 12 Apr 2007, 16:31:42

Look at the numbers the report suggests are possible.

Look at consumption.
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Re: 25 by 25

Unread postby Loki » Thu 12 Apr 2007, 18:09:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')....over one hundred million acres of dedicated energy crops, like switchgrass...." (p. ii)

Just to put this in perspective, this is more than all the acreage that will be dedicated to corn production in the US in 2007 (around 91 million acres, up considerably from last year). They assume a >20 fold increase in ethanol production and a nearly 15 fold increase in biodiesel.

Much of their model seems to hinge on the assumption that yields of all crops will continue to rise indefinitely---e.g., they assume the price impacts of switching to biofuel production will be moderated by increasing yields of all the major crops. Without these yield assumptions, the projected increase in crop prices is "significantly higher, and even well above average market prices experienced in a number of years, especially for corn, wheat, and soybeans." They also assume increased yields will keep exports somewhat steady, despite fewer acres being dedicated to export crops.

One wonders how viable these projected yield increases are when we take into consideration declining supplies of petroleum and natural gas....

Their complete disinterest in conservation is worrisome. In the main "Action Plan" report there is lots of lip service given to "conserving natural resources," but they don't seem terribly interested in actual conservation.

This statement gave me a chuckle:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')By 2025, under the assumption of the EPT scenario, the cost of a gallon of ethanol would be $1.46 and the cost of biodiesel would be $2.23 per gallon."
:lol:

Their list of endorsees is also interesting. Quite the bedfellows.
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