[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ecline curves graphically depict the rates at which oil and gas well production levels fall -- or plummet -- over time. They may also illustrate how unlikely it is that the world's oil producers will be able to meet the expected increases in global demand. Energy giant ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and the Energy Information Administration arm of the U.S. Department of Energy are just two of the many entities that have studied this important question.

These prognosticators generally agree that total crude oil production -- which currently averages nearly 85 million barrels daily -- will need to reach about 120 million barrels per day, or more than 40% above the current rate, by the year 2030. This is largely because of rapidly escalating energy usage in the world's developing nations, such as China and India. Any significant shortfall in meeting that projected level could have dire consequences, including a meaningful decline in your quality of life and heightened hostilities among nations.

Unfortunately, those whose knowledge of energy ends at the gasoline pump often believe that meeting higher energy demand simply involves drilling a few new wells. However, as The Wall Street Journal indicated in an excellent article last week, the decline rates of many of the world's largest oil fields appear to be escalating, meaning that more and more energy producers will need to run faster and faster just to keep up with current production levels, let alone achieve any sort of significant production increases.

[benzoil]

Interesting. My guess is that opinion (aka "Conventional Wisdom") is starting to shift. You can't *say* Peak Oil because then you're a fringe nut loonie. Those Peak Oilers are nut jobs with their gloomy outlook for consumption-based society blah blah, etc.

BUT, people are starting to look at the actual science and realize that PO by any other name smells as rank. They'll avoid using the term for some time, however. They don't want to be identified with the fringe, even if the fringe looked at the actual science sometime back and came to the same conclusion.

This is part of the dialectic of change. I'd say its welcome.

Aside: Hello fellow fringe nut loonies!

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'T')his is part of the dialectic of change. I'd say its welcome.

Aside: Hello fellow fringe nut loonies!

[mmasters]

I'm not sure it's conventional wisdom shifting. They could be slowly preparing to propagandize PO to the general public.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I')'m not sure it's conventional wisdom shifting. They could be slowly preparing to propagandize PO to the general public.

[Heading_for_the_hills]

Did I miss something? I have been following the Motley Fool for years in the Washington Post. They are not concerned with educating the public on Peak Oil. They are recommending investing in the big 3 Oil Companies, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as......
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') hope these concerns will lead Foolish investors to pay careful attention to the vital energy sector. My favorite names for consideration include the three international producers mentioned above, along with big oilfield service companies Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE: HAL).

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I')'m not sure it's conventional wisdom shifting. They could be slowly preparing to propagandize PO to the general public.

[UncoveringTruths]

Missed that blip in there.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', ' ')Something has to stop unrestrained globalization from gobbling up the entire resource base. Propagandizing peak oil would be a profitable way of stopping it.

[Eli]

True growth will not be able to happen after PO,which we have already passed.

What you will see is pseudo growth through acquisition. Those in power will remain in power because they will be able to buy other companies at fire sale rates on the downward slope. The little fish will die off and be swallowed up by the big fish.

The deck is already stacked in the favor of the big corporations which as we know are already getting becoming global. There will be virtually no way smaller companies will be able to compete. It will become a complete fantasy to think that some one can come along with a better idea and make it.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')rue growth will not be able to happen after PO,which we have already passed.

What you will see is pseudo growth through acquisition. Those in power will remain in power because they will be able to buy other companies at fire sale rates on the downward slope. The little fish will die off and be swallowed up by the big fish.

[careinke]

pstarr,

You have to be a member to make recommendations. The MF cost money to be a member, but the advantage is, the discussion boards have a lot less junk than most investment sites.

There is even a peak oil discussion board. The Cornucopians outnumber the doomers on the board. However, that is to be expected considering the demographics of the board.

As a doomer I do have some fun with them.

Cliff (Start a revolution, grow a garden)

[careinke]

pstarr,

You have to be a member to make recommendations. The MF cost money to be a member, but the advantage is, the discussion boards have a lot less junk than most investment sites.

There is even a peak oil discussion board. The Cornucopians outnumber the doomers on the board. However, that is to be expected considering the demographics of the board.

As a doomer I do have some fun with them.

Cliff (Start a revolution, grow a garden)

[Ayoob]

That Motley Fool article is really something. Those guys are such ground-ball, base-hit types. You're not going to see MF go out on a limb for anything.

It kind of made my stomach take a little flip.

I used to be in the investments business. You can always find some economist or another to say that this or that event is likely to happen, make some kind of gloomy prediction. Take Roach at Morgan Stanley, for example. What a pessimist! The first thing he would do with a free puppy is to measure how much piss was inside it.

But these Motley Fool guys are pretty level-headed. They do their own research and basically try to avoid doing anything stupid. Index funds, bonds, CD's, sound long-term financial planning, all that kind of thing. When THEY'RE talking about the peak....

It's kind of weird to finally have respected mainstream news sources writing articles like this one. I've felt like a minority of one for so long.

ETA: KOP2

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', ' ')Something has to stop unrestrained globalization from gobbling up the entire resource base. Propagandizing peak oil would be a profitable way of stopping it.

[Clouseau2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'I')nteresting. My guess is that opinion (aka "Conventional Wisdom") is starting to shift. You can't *say* Peak Oil because then you're a fringe nut loonie.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')rue growth will not be able to happen after PO,which we have already passed.

[eastbay]

Uncoveringtruths,

Thanks. Excellent article. It's nice to see this thinking finally reaching mainstream.