[mefistofeles]

I'm looking at getting a new car in 12 hours so I did some excel calculations for various price points and with various vehicles.

A V-6 Lexus Luxury Sedan GS 350 (20 mpg)
A Toyota Camry Hybrid (30 mpg)
A Toyota Prius (40 mpg)

The Price Points for Premium Unleaded Per Tank
Current Price $33.00
Peak Oil P2 $66.00
Peak Oil P3 $99.00

I came to astounshing conclusion that even if gas prices were to increase to $99.00 per tank based I would only save $5,940 a year driving a Toyota Prius Hybrid versus a V-6 Lexus Luxury Sedan.

Although I'm wealthy $5,940 a year is a premium that I can easily afford on my current salary.

To me this implies that oil and gasoline prices must appreciate by an order of magnitude to have any affect on the behaviour of US consumers.

I think the Prius would start looking good at $198 a tank or six times current gasoline prices. If gasoline prices can be directly correlated with oil prices this implies that we won't even begin to see a change in oil consumption until prices for oil hit $360.00 a barrel.

The implication of this is that oil prices need to rise far more before there is any meaningful demand destruction.

[Jack]

Nice point. I agree completely - demand is inelastic, so prices must increase a lot to reduce consumption slightly.

Another datapoint to consider - suppose we have a hypothetical consumer with an older car that gets 16 MPG. At what point is it worthwhile to trade in the old and get the new Prius?

Complicating the analysis is that prices won't go from $2.60 per gallon to $6.60 per gallon overnight (probably) - they'll increase over the course of months and years. This will reduce buying power among those who have limited means, making the switch more problematic.

Let's suppose they make $10 per hour, net after taxes and withholding. Assume 8 hours per day of work. If they consume 2 gallons per day (one to work, one back from work), and gasoline is $20 per gallon, they still have a net income of $40 per day. They cannot give that up if they wish to have any income at all.

Will they choose public transportation or carpooling? Perhaps. But our society, with its around the clock work schedules and dispersed living arrangements, makes that challenging for most.

Interesting times.

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', '
')
I came to astounshing conclusion that even if gas prices were to increase to $99.00 per tank based I would only save $5,940 a year driving a Toyota Prius Hybrid versus a V-6 Lexus Luxury Sedan.

Although I'm wealthy $5,940 a year is a premium that I can easily afford on my current salary.

To me this implies that oil and gasoline prices must appreciate by an order of magnitude to have any affect on the behaviour of US consumers.

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', 'A')lthough I'm wealthy... To me this implies that oil and gasoline prices must appreciate by an order of magnitude to have any affect on the behaviour of US consumers.

[frankthetank]

Just my opinion, but since the early 90's or whenever they first hit the roads here in the US, i've been a huge Lexus fan. The quality is top notch! Always wanted the LS400 or the SC400 back in the day. Know someone with the GS300. If you can afford one you can afford the gas. Its not you who is going to be hurting, its WalMart worker with the '95 F150 who commutes. I think price will be only part of the problem in the future. The other being availibility. Enjoy life, you could be dead tomorrow.

[cube]

PO is not just simply about price. It's also about availability. In a PO world you would NOT be able to consume as much as you want simply because you have money.

That's a radical shift from what we have today where the only "limit" to how much you can consume is money.

[Ludi]

I think a person who can afford the luxury vehicle should go ahead and buy it. The hybrids are just for show, anyway; you can buy a modestly priced diesel or even some standard gasoline cars kwhich get very good mileage (40- 50 mpg). My husband, a car buff, recommends the Volkswagen Passat TDI, or a deisel Mercedes, if available. For 25 - 30 mpg, you could get the Lotus Exige.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'P')O is not just simply about price. It's also about availability. In a PO world you would NOT be able to consume as much as you want simply because you have money.

That's a radical shift from what we have today where the only "limit" to how much you can consume is money.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Hold on a minute - rewind please.

We seem to be saying on this thread that vehicle fuel consumption will not decrease unless prices climb significantly.

However - if my monthly fuel bill goes from $200 to $400, that is still affordable, but that is still $200 a month I'm not spending on something else.

That "something else" has an amount of vehicle fuel attached to it.

If its goods I dont spend it on , then then less trucks are used to deliver.

If its services (say eating out) I dont spend this money on , then there is less food delivered to the restaurant, there is is less staff at the restaurant so they use less fuel etc etc.

So in other words - I dont think gasoline has to become super expensive/less available for american drivers to use less gasoline.

American drivers will demand less gasoline when the prices rises enough to tank employment numbers.

I think this will happen WAY WAY before gasoline becomes $10 a gallon or is rationed etc etc

Just MO

[Ludi]

Nah, Tyler_JC, I think it's fairly absurd. Or quite optimistic!

[Permanently_Baffled]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')ah, Tyler_JC, I think it's fairly absurd. Or quite optimistic!

[Mechman]

mefistofeles

As an alternate plan to cover all bases, get a used but good condition Geo Metro or equivalent (40mpg to 50 mpg) for about $2000 to $4000. You can park it and use whatever new car you also buy or you can drive the Metro and use the new Luxury Sedan for special occasions.

I literally parked my two older BMW 7 series and only drive them for special occasions and bought a used 1996 Geo Metro (3 cylinder manual transmission, 45 mpg avg.) which I use almost all the time. I use the two 23 gallon fuel tanks of the BMW's for safe fuel storage. These little cars don't have any of the Luxury Sedan feel or handling like a BMW or Lexus but they do actually make driving at 55 mph exciting again and you save on fuel. 55 mph in a BMW feels like your crawling and you are tempted to go faster until it feels right but then you are sucking down the gas at 16 mpg. 55 mph in a small car feels right and you are getting about 48 mpg. The Metro gets around 65 mpg if you can keep the speed at 38 mph. The insurance for my Metro was a little more than the insurance for my BMW by $3, it is just not as safe but not by much. The Metro I bought cost $1200 and I had to put about $300 in parts to make it fully reliable. The Metro is paying for itself about $200 a month in fuel savings.

My next car is to convert another Geo Metro into a 100 to 120 mpg diesel version since I cannot get a VW Lupo or its parts here very easily. The ultimate car needs to get 190 to 195 mpg or better and then you can beat even a bicycle. Almost any car is vastly safer than any motorcycle or bicycle. VW had that two person tandem carbon fiber diesel car that would get 240 mpg on the highway but it was never mass produced.

Get a small, low cost, fuel efficient car first and if you are still rolling in money you can always get the new car also. You will want to get that small car when it is easy to get, not in a crisis. You also have the perspective of your responsibility to the future, just because you can burn fuel now doesn’t mean you should. Most people will say “perspective of your responsibility to the future, what the hell is that?”, which is why Jack will be right on many things when predicting peoples actions and Peak Oil will have its due.

What fuel or cultural principles will you leave for the future? Your actions will be a reflection of that.

[Ludi]

Ah, the Lupo! It's a crying shame we can't buy them here in the States! But, that's our priorities showing, I guess....


There are some great tiny cars out there, I like to think, cute tiny cars will be the cars of the (near) future.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')nother datapoint to consider - suppose we have a hypothetical consumer with an older car that gets 16 MPG. At what point is it worthwhile to trade in the old and get the new Prius?

[Bill1943]

May be the problem is looking at you in the mirror. The way to replace your old vehicle is with one that gets the best mileage and does the job you need, of course it must be affordable to you. Even if you are well off you should chose a vehicle that gets good mileage. As a prosperous person you should set an example with a high mileage vehicle. This will influence others to follow your example. Right now hybrid vehicles are border line cost efficient but the message they send is I am willing to spend a little more to use less fuel and pollute less. As a nation we will have to change our habits in consuming fuel and producing CO2 and other pollutants. By doing this on our own now it will be easier than waiting for the congress to pass laws requiring it.
The market is you and me and it is up to us to make a difference.

[billp]

During the 1980 gas crunch, I bought a 1978 VW rabbit to commute to Sandia Labs.

It got around 30 mpg ... which was lots better than our 1972 Ford F250 4x4 which consistently got around 12 mpg.

I paid about $3,300 for the '78 rabbit which had about 3lK miles. I sold the '78 rabbit for $300 when it had 330K miles one it.

One enging replacement.

Next came 1982 grey rabbit which was purchased in about 1988 for $2,480 for our daughter. It made a horrible noise when purchased. Bad right wheel bearing which as fixed for less than $50.

I got grey rabbit back in 1988. It is as much of a hobby as cheap transportation. I installed a five speed manual transmission, a 1989 Fox 1.8 engine, techtonics 2 inch exhaust, and msd ignition it grey rabbit.

I was curious to see if the msd of better mileage was supported.
I kept a mileage record.

Msd claim better mileage claim doesn't appear to be supported in grey rabbit.

Grey rabbit currently has about 350K miles on it.

Grey rabbit is sick and, despite all of my rabbit experience, I can't find the problem. So I am letting experts try to find and hopefully fix the problem..

Rabbits were made with diesel engines. Except for mpg, diesel rabbits were lots more expensive to operate compared to gas rabbits.

A rabbit diesel is not, unlike a gas rabbit, "spin free" which means that valves are bent if the rubber band timing belt breaks.

Diesel glow plugs are expensive.

And if the diesel fuel injection pump fails, which they do, it costs more than $500 to replace.

"If you had to pay someone to fix your rabbit, then you couldn't afford to own one," Art Garcia at Discount Auto stated.

In December 2006 we bought a new 2006 Honda CR-V five-speed all wheel drive.


Here's most of the mileages I've gotton. 27.22, 28.44, 28.24, 27.89, 28.01, 28.67, 28.33, 29.00, 28.47,27.88, 30.65, 29.03, 28.12, 22.34, 28.79.

While towing my boat to Navajo Lake and back the CR-V only got slightly over 22 mpg.

Our son has a 2006 Honda CR-V in Austin. It only gets about 22 mpg he reports.

Keeping old cars that get good mileage can be entertaining ... and time consuming.

Senior citizen, who also weathered the 1972/3 gas crunch with White ford, is a bit concerned that we may soon see gas shortages or even rationing.

If what I read at Peak Oil and The Oil Drum is correct.

[I_Like_Plants]

You can get better than 50MPG in the Prius unless you're in a cold climate or an aggressive driver.

A lot of people are buying them in my area because they're allowed in the car pool lane. To give you an idea of how averse Americans are to carpooling, they'll buy a $33k super-car before they'll share a ride with another person.

I am considering selling my own Prius, because it's a way to get out of a fair chunk of debt. I was looking at bicycles today - a good reliable bike is not only fun but good back-up so if I get a car that's really cheap like $1500 or so, maybe less, if it's in need of repair etc at times, I can still get around OK with the bike. I'm actually considering picking up an old Volvo station wagon like a 240, and doing bike-able trips by bike.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '.')..
Alternatively, will the government step in and announce price restrictions and gasoline coupons?
...

[MrBill]

The way I have always looked at this problem is that driving is still an expense regardless of the price of fuel. Every dollar I spend on fuel is one less dollar to spend on either discretionary spending or saving. Over time it makes a tremendous difference. So I only buy up to the size of car needed. Used of course. No need to shoulder all that initial deprecation! ; - )

RE average prices in 2006

I pulled these off the Internet last week (knowing I could use them eventually) ; - )

From the AAA:

average cost 52.2 cents per mile based on 15.000 miles per year
average cost of ownership $7.823
average fuel price 8.9 cents per mile (versus 9.5 cents in 2005)

so the price of petrol was only 17% the cost of driving for the average car and the average mileage (15.000 miles per year)

a further breakdown was

small car $6219 per year
medium sized car $7.823
large car $9.373
mini-van $8.639
SUV $9.997

my conclusion was it is not the mileage per se, but the second (or third) family car that is killing your average family in terms of expenses per year considering all the costs of owning a vehicle and not just price or miles per gallon.

[halcyon]

Driving cost is one part of the equation to many. There are several other parts:

- emissions
- conservation (just for the mindset and to give a signal to the market)
- utility under fuel rationing situation (you can drive 2-3x as much with a fuel efficient car on limited amount of fuel)

Personally, I'd be thinking of my children as well: GHG, energy available to them and the kind of world (conserving/wasteful) we leave behind to them.

Current costs is just one part in that equation, regardless of whether you are poor or wealthy.