[kochevnik]

I was thinking about Dr. B and exports for the last few days.

Dr. B says that we should expect worldwide production to drop from 80 mbd to 55 mbd by 2020 - roughly dropping 2 mbd each year.

World has 36 million barrels per day of EXPORTS right now.

Worldwide population and standard of living is still increasing (look at how many cars GM sold in China is month - 300k).

As countries like Mexico (which once were exporters) deplete, they turn into importers (assuming they have the cash).

So in a typical year going forward, we see the 36 mbd export pie get :

a) depleted: 2 mbd
b) population increase = demand rise: 1 mbd (conservative)
c) exporters become importers: 0.5 mbd - (wild ass guesstimate)


----------------------------------------------
Extrapolate:

2007 - 36 mbd exports available
2009 - 29 mbd exports available
2011 - 22 mbd exports available
2013 - 15 mbd exports available
2015 - 8 mbd exports available
2017 - 1 mbd exports available


So any guess as to what year the last all-out, no-holds-barred, oil war begins ?

I used to talk about the Fourth Turning book here a bunch but gave up. Funny thing is, in addition to predicting 911 in 1997, the 4T authors also predict a big war in 2020 give or take a few years.

Smart guys.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'S')o any guess as to what year the last all-out, no-holds-barred, oil war begins ?

[ohanian]

I just want to point our a few night about your maths

from 2007 to 2020 is just 13 years

A drop from 80mbd to 55mbd is going from 100% of today's "production" capacity to 68% of todays "production" capacity.

So each year the drop is 13th root of 0.68 which is .97159

So each year there is a 2.9% drop in "production" capacity.

So the first year is dropping by 2.27mbd which is RIDICULOUS!!!


If you assume the drop is very slight in the early years then you would have to come to the conclusion that the drop in the later years would be catastrophical.


Instead of 2020, I would worry about 2060 which is the real date when the shit hits the fan.

In 2060, we would run out of coal!!! So imagine a world without oil and without coal. We would be fighting for bio-fuel plantation and uranium mines.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'S')o any guess as to what year the last all-out, no-holds-barred, oil war begins ?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', 'I')f you assume the drop is very slight in the early years then you would have to come to the conclusion that the drop in the later years would be catastrophical.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')How you gonna drive a Hummer with no oil in it?

[Fiddlerdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow you gonna drive a Hummer with no oil in it?

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')How you gonna drive a Hummer with no oil in it?

[Gazzatrone]

Sorry I am forgetting that any wars that occur will be those of civil wars. The U.S WILL be a bloodbath. Fuck going to the Quays in 2015.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '
')How you gonna drive a Hummer with no oil in it?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')he military will always have all the fuel and petroleum products it needs to engage in whatever mischief it wants to. U.S. production alone will more than cover it.

Meanwhile, we civilians will be bicycling and walking.

[Gazzatrone]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')he US could reassign an ever-increasing proportion of its expensive domestic oil production to meet its military needs command-economy style, but no country it would encounter on the battlefield would be doing likewise

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'T')he US could reassign an ever-increasing proportion of its expensive domestic oil production to meet its military needs command-economy style, but no country it would encounter on the battlefield would be doing likewise

[shakespear1]

Analysis of Russia's export numbers suggest that this is alredy happening

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'countries with available export capacity are going to come under internal pressure to start taking their exports off the market (and external pressure to reduce internal demand!).')

[AirlinePilot]

Add just a half of a percent or maybe even a whole percent and see what happens to the out years for production. It could very well be MUCH UGLIER than anyone in here currently imagines. I think its going to go downhill quickly within about 2 years or so depending on discoveries and projected depletion rates.

[Plantagenet]

Peak Oil doesn't mean production drops to zero.....it means production gradually decreases after the peak is reached.

Prices will rise as oil production drops.

Other technologies will become competitive as oil prices drop, and will be increasingly used.

There is no reason to fantasize a "Mad Max" future.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'P')eak Oil doesn't mean production drops to zero.....it means production gradually decreases after the peak is reached.

Prices will rise as oil production drops.

Other technologies will become competitive as oil prices drop, and will be increasingly used.

There is no reason to fantasize a "Mad Max" future.

[kochevnik]

To be honest - I'm a little disappointed here - I've been gone since I posted this and I was kinda sorta hoping someone could show me where my math doesn't make sense.

Instead all I got was a whole lotta -'Well, it's wrong because it just has to be wrong' or 'It's wrong because I say so'

If the math isn't wrong by at least a magnitude somehow, then I feel pretty sick to my stomach, to tell you the truth.

Twilight has it pegged - if we have ten years to zero exports no matter what that curve looks like, long before then, everyone and his brother will be scrambling for what's left - no matter what the cost (lives and money).

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

I was thinking about Dr. B and exports for the last few days.

Dr. B says that we should expect worldwide production to drop from 80 mbd to 55 mbd by 2020 - roughly dropping 2 mbd each year.

World has 36 million barrels per day of EXPORTS right now.

Worldwide population and standard of living is still increasing (look at how many cars GM sold in China is month - 300k).

As countries like Mexico (which once were exporters) deplete, they turn into importers (assuming they have the cash).

So in a typical year going forward, we see the 36 mbd export pie get :

a) depleted: 2 mbd
b) population increase = demand rise: 1 mbd (conservative)
c) exporters become importers: 0.5 mbd - (wild ass guesstimate)


----------------------------------------------
Extrapolate:

2007 - 36 mbd exports available
2009 - 29 mbd exports available
2011 - 22 mbd exports available
2013 - 15 mbd exports available
2015 - 8 mbd exports available
2017 - 1 mbd exports available

[kochevnik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '
')It appears that the model mixes increasing demand and available exports, which would only be valid for exporting countries.

As I see it: Decrease in Available Exports = Exporting Countries depletion + Exporting Countries increase in demand