[Guest]

I've been researching when we will first get hit by peak oil
By 'hit' I mean prices going above $50 and the media recognising the problem is real. The day the headlines say 'world running out of oil' !

At the moment we are in the minority, we are nut cases that are talking against everything 'normal' people believe!

I believe that this day will come by the end of the year, anyone like to agree/disagree?

Oil prices were driven up by high demand last year, which carried on into first quarter this year - 81 million barrels
This indicates supply was struggling

In this quarter demand went down, maybe to 78mb
OPEC raised production and prices are stable but not obviously lower. This indicates no excess in supply

Quarter 3 has a predicted demand of 80.5mb
In Quarter 4 it jumps up to 82.5mb

My point is, if we couldn't really match a demand of 81, how will manage an extra 1.5 mb?

OPEC is now flat out, so now is Russia (and remember 75% of the increased demand from the last six years came from here), Iraq is flat

There seems little hope of any extra supply as we go into two quarters of high demand

Martin

[OilBurner]

At what point do you define that price $x or price $y for a barrel of oil means the peak has hit?
As we are often reminded, the real oil price when inflation is taken into account is not historically that high.

I suspect the problem with the supply/demand raio will be "solved" with a little bit of deft politics.
SA will find some way to blame another situation for not being able to ramp up production - i.e. brain drain of foreign talent and the media will be able to cling to the idea that everything will be okay once Iraq gets pumping more oil.
That's not to say the peak couldn't hit this year, but you have to be careful to differentiate between demand trying to exceed supply and a peak in production. They're two different, although related, issues.
We could fail to meet anticipated demand but still have increasing global production. In that case it would be hard to imagine the press declaring that oil is truly on the way out, yet the oil price could skyrocket.

[nigel]

Have a look at
- the Petroleum Review January 2004 'Oil Field Mega Projects' by Chris Skrebowski'. According to him the witching hour is 2007/8.
- globalpublicmedia.com - transcript of Chris Skrebowski interviewed by Julian Darley 2004/05/17
- New York Times 12 June 2004 An Oil Enigma...
- Wold Energy Vol 7. No 1 2004 Global Crude Supply : Is the Oil Peak Near by Mathew Simmons - he seems more persuaded by the Saudis in this than he implies elsewhere eg Houston Business Journal 2004/04/12

[Guest]

naw, they'll scrounge the globe to meet demand (barely) and make it look "ok" for the next couple of years. Some finds are going to make it on tap soon, a probable recession could dampen growth in demand etc. etc.

Heck they even found a bit of usable oil in Israel (kfar saba) by a little co. called givat olam. It's only 200 million recoverable (the estimate) but thats a lot for a small country.

I'll stick with the good doctors predictions of 2008 (and maybe even extend it to 2010), that is unless someone gives me hard numbers as to why the ASPO is too conservative.

[Aaron]

I'm with Heinberg,

OIL peak in 2000

Gas peak some years later

World peak is only a statistical expression. Because various fields come on line and decline at different times,"peak" is an extended plateau as supply teeters near demand... before plunging.

[MattSavinar]

I don't think you will ever see the mainstream media make an "announcement" that oil production is in decline then honestly explain just what that truly means.

What will happen is what happened in the Soviet Union, and what is already happening here in the States. People will expereince one thing on the streets and in their day to day lives, but the mainstream media will be reporting something vastly different.

I read somewhere that fewer and fewer people are watching mainstream news. The article gave two reasons:

1. Expansion/increased popularity of the internet.
2. The fact that what people see on television news is not accurately reflecting what they know to be true from their daily lives.

I think we will just get more and more of this "disconnect" phenoma.

Matt

[slick50]

I'm betting on Kenneth Deffeyes's mathematical prediction of Thanksgiving 2005. The Stock Channel ran a 5-minute segment on his book a few weeks ago. But like Simmons has said, we will not know it till we see it in the rear view mirror. Then it's too late for many of us.

[Aldert]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I')'m with Heinberg,

OIL peak in 2000.

[Aaron]

World peak is only a statistical expression. Because various fields come on line and decline at different times,"peak" is an extended plateau as supply teeters near demand... before plunging.

This means fluctuations in supply for the reasons you mentioned.

[Guest]

>At what point do you define that price $x or price $y for a barrel of oil means the peak has hit?
As we are often reminded, the real oil price when inflation is taken into account is not historically that high

Maybe, but back then the problem was the OPEC blockade and Iran - not a global supply problem. Its different
As prices rise it will become obvious that there is a supply shortage

The actual date of peak is less relavant than the impact it has on prices
I don't see a conspiracy here

Prices are all that matters, because oil is a commodity like any other
High prices lead to a panic, not a peak in production

Martin

[missinglinkisagayidiot]

Now thatr six months has expended since your posts, has your opinions changed?

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilBurner', '
') but you have to be careful to differentiate between demand trying to exceed supply and a peak in production. They're two different, although related, issues.
We could fail to meet anticipated demand but still have increasing global production. In that case it would be hard to imagine the press declaring that oil is truly on the way out, yet the oil price could skyrocket.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Don't forget that most of the oil extraction equipment is old and wearing down. Especially in Saudia Arabia, but also true in most countries. they haven't been replaceing equipment because it would drive costs up and they want to make the msot profit they can.

There has been some speculation that Saudia Arabia will not be able to meet any increased demand because of this exact problem.

The governments will play a bigger role in all this. They take a huge amount in tax when you fill up at the pump. they will probably lower this when there is a problem. That will signal to those of us watching that the problem is about to roost on our door step but will also give them a bit more time before STHF.

another thing to be watching out for is an increase in subsidies to oil producers. they may take lots off at the pump as usual but increase tax breaks and/or the subsidies.

[ObiWan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Guest', '
')There seems little hope of any extra supply as we go into two quarters of high demand

Martin