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Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

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Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Jack » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 22:35:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). Conclusion
The similarity of the results obtained by two very different models --- the WOCAP and
the GBM --- should help bring 'Peak Oil' modeling to a close, as according to these
models the peak of global oil production has now been reached. Furthermore, the two
models' similar forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be
considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast for the future production of
the international oil industry.


Full PDF report HERE

The latest from A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari.

Happy Peaking! 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 23:43:05

What an excellent topic for some gun porn.

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The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 00:02:26

Ok Jack, I have to ask, your avatar...is it Kilrathi? Or maybe something from a Haldeman novel? Cool metal bug ;)
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby DesertBear2 » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 04:50:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'T')he latest from A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari.

Happy Peaking! 8)


There is something about the presentations of Bakhtiari that just has a very solid feel about it. Deffeyes also comes across as very solid.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby jato » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 05:06:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')k Jack, I have to ask, your avatar...is it Kilrathi? Or maybe something from a Haldeman novel? Cool metal bug ;)



Its the assassin droid from "Knights of the old Republic"
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 08:38:37

Thanks Jack,
I observe that you are very happy with your findings...
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Zardoz » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 10:47:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bakhtiari', '.')..the two models' similar forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast for the future production of the international oil industry.

Okay, let's assume that's 100% accurate. What does a gradual decline to 55 mb/d in 2020 mean for us? Can that be dealt with, sort of? Can we maintain civilization-as-we-know-it, but without the brain-dead wastefulness we now indulge ourselves in, at a rate of decline like that?

Would that head off the Mad Max scenario? Is that a gradual-enough decline to avoid total worldwide chaos? At first glance, I think maybe it is. That would seem to be something we could more or less work with, if we made the commitment to actually do the right things.

Of course, that's a hell of a big "if", isn't it?
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 13:23:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'O')kay, let's assume that's 100% accurate. What does a gradual decline to 55 mb/d in 2020 mean for us? Can that be dealt with, sort of? Can we maintain civilization-as-we-know-it, but without the brain-dead wastefulness we now indulge ourselves in, at a rate of decline like that?

Would that head off the Mad Max scenario? Is that a gradual-enough decline to avoid total worldwide chaos? At first glance, I think maybe it is. That would seem to be something we could more or less work with, if we made the commitment to actually do the right things.

From 85 mb/d in 2007 to 55 mb/d in 2020, that's roughly a 35% drop in 13 years at the 3.25% depletion rate Campbell suggested back in 1996, assuming the current plateau ends with 2008 as he also suggested at the time.

First observation, the spreadsheet existed and the world just pissed away a decade.

Second observation, that's pretty steep. I'll whip up a graph and upload in a few minutes.

I don't see us mitigating that kind of decline at all. The world might just about mitigate long-term static supply in the face of current demand growth, but losing a third of its liquid fuel supply in 13 years is terminal. It's a big drop and it's not a very long time at all. It's barely enough time to get a new technology to market, it's barely 2-3 infrastructure project cycles. The average consumer can daydream away several years without even noticing.

That magnifies other problem. I doubt we're going to see the onset of terminal decline next year. I think we'll bump along until the end of the decade before the effects are severe enough for the threat to be recognised, and Bakhtiari has been saying that the initial decline rate will be low. So we are going to have breathing room for years of denial and then we could see a steeper drop, 3.5%+ to the level he states. In that scenario, you can postpone the commencement of any mitigation by several more years, with a corresponding reduction in its effectiveness.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby ritter » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 13:47:33

I can always count on this site to ruin a perfectly good mood....

That's some heavy stuff.

This reminds me of 10 years ago when everyone belittled the climate change models. Then, the models all started lining up. Now, it looks like it's really happening. Oops. Don't bother me with those pesky scientists. I've got widgets to make.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Jack » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 14:19:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')k Jack, I have to ask, your avatar...is it Kilrathi? Or maybe something from a Haldeman novel? Cool metal bug ;)


Jato is correct - the avatar is HK-47, an assassination robot from the game Knights of the Old Republic, a Star Wars prequel.

HK-47 likes to kill living beings - or, as he might call them, meatbags. He's cold, manipulative, and heartless.

Rather a nice contrast to my own warm and friendly nature. 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Jack » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 14:22:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')hanks Jack,
I observe that you are very happy with your findings...


I am, actually. I'm well aware of the implications, and am under no delusions that I'll escape a portion of the consequences to come - but I find many aspects of present national and international policy objectionable.

While the details of my objections are beyond the scope of the thread, I believe coming events will put an end to some things I regard as being in need of termination.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Jack » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 14:31:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'W')ould that head off the Mad Max scenario? Is that a gradual-enough decline to avoid total worldwide chaos? At first glance, I think maybe it is. That would seem to be something we could more or less work with, if we made the commitment to actually do the right things.


Not really. If the only problem was moving you and I to work, we could get by - but we also have to transport myriad goods. We don't have time to fix the food transportation system, much less anything else.

We also need energy to fuel economic growth. The stock market is predicated on the assumption of growth. Take that away, and the stock market fails.

As MonteQuest has pointed out, conservation is likely to mean that someone is out of a job. The above numbers suggest lots of people out of jobs. This propagates to the credit markets, the housing market, and the political stability of society.

With the 1929 depression, everyone believed we would recover. If people accept peak oil, they will lose hope for themselves, their children, and grandchildren - forever. Will they accept it peacefully? I doubt it.

What happens to Mexico's teeming millions as Cantarell fails and they head north? What of China and India - will their vast populations accept that they will never advance to the first-world lifestyle they seek?

I doubt it will be Mad Max. It may be worse - Stalin, Kim Jong Il, Hitler...or even Pol Pot.

Another ray of sunshine to brighten your day.

8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 14:59:01

Ah, here we go.

Mitigate this.

Top red line is Bakhtiari 2007 (assuming a constant 3.25% decline rate - not a given), bottom red line was Campbell 1996.

Note that the secondary FSU peak and late surge of deepwater oil stands to make the crisis worse.

I omitted the "benign gradient" as I don't know how it would look, but given a production of 55 mb/d (20 gb/y) in 2020, mentally visualising such a gradient leads to a cliff to 2020.

A personal observation - beyond 2020 the validity of any such curve breaks down as uncertainties in the decline rate grow. Oil industry economics may have a favourable effect on production, and the rate of decline may slow. Alternatively, geopolitical effects could result in the artificial destruction of production capacity. However, the trend to that point is of great interest.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby eric_b » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 17:59:52

Wow. What really caught my eye was the daily ouput being down to ~55 mbd by 2020. Now, that doesn't seem that far off does it?

A sobering report. 8O

A very bad time to be growing old, as I will be in my 50's by 2020. I can't help but wondering if there's not going to be some sort of generational backlash once all the whippersnappers realize there's not going to be much left for them.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 05:31:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')hanks Jack,
I observe that you are very happy with your findings...


I am, actually. I'm well aware of the implications, and am under no delusions that I'll escape a portion of the consequences to come - but I find many aspects of present national and international policy objectionable.

While the details of my objections are beyond the scope of the thread, I believe coming events will put an end to some things I regard as being in need of termination.

Sometimes I think in comparable way, but you cannot be ultimately certain, what will be terminated and what will survive PO, and if so, then for how long.

The final outcome may be wildly different of someones expectations.

You can see Mad Max transition period (perhaps you are hoping for that), which will stabilize later to form some quasi feudal system, which you will not see anyway (life too short).

Alternatively you can witness Long Emergency with US turning Mexico alike and with total hopelessness in society around you.

Alternatively you can witness, how nukes are working in practice and live through it to face "abrupt end of organised state" scenario.
That is perhaps survivalists wet dream...

Or you can witness some technoutopia with nuke plant in every town, nanotech in everyones body and final rape of environment pending.

Who know, what you will witness...
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Jack » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 10:03:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')he final outcome may be wildly different of someones expectations.


More than that...the outcome will almost certainly be wildly different from anyone's expectations.

Some people buy lottery tickets and imagine what they'll do. I contemplate peak oil, and imagine what it will do.

My option is cheaper than playing the lottery. And the results are statistically equivalent. 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby undertaker » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 12:18:43

Yeah, the Mad Max movies are wildly optimistic about the future, IMHO :-D

What Jack said -- a lot of things that really suck are going to come to an end -- and good riddance! I just hope we keep up dentistry and penicillin and morphine.

I got a friend here who is also a PO forum user and PO preparer, and we agree that we are going to miss alcoholic beverages very much. On the other hand, forced sobriety may not be such a bad thing -- a blessing in disguise as it may be.

I sure hope it doesn't turn me into a religionist. Religion is the cry of the soul in agony. We could all turn into weepy jesus freaks after a year or two of major deprivation. Yechh! I hope I'll be more like Conan and less like a medieval self flagellating monk. I think atheism is one of the good aspects of the modern age. Atheism, dentistry, penicillin.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 12:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('undertaker', 'Y')eah, the Mad Max movies are wildly optimistic about the future, IMHO :-D

What Jack said -- a lot of things that really suck are going to come to an end -- and good riddance! I just hope we keep up dentistry and penicillin and morphine.

1. Dentistry: Blacksmith with a chisel and pliers will help...
2. Penicillin: Why do you want to keep it? Most of bugs are no longer bothered by that...
3. Morphine: Take hart in Afgan story...if they can make it, we can make it as well...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') got a friend here who is also a PO forum user and PO preparer, and we agree that we are going to miss alcoholic beverages very much. On the other hand, forced sobriety may not be such a bad thing -- a blessing in disguise as it may be.

There will not be forced soberity. Alcohol in all consumable forms is quite easy to make with primitive methods. It will always be around, even if we go back to Stone Age.
BTW. I am fan of home winemaking - it is really easy to make *drinkable* wine with 14-16% of alcohol, albeit it is difficult to make a really good one.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think atheism is one of the good aspects of the modern age. Atheism, dentistry, penicillin.

Atheism...it will probably be gone...sad, as I am atheist as well. Hopefully christianity will also be gone and some more pagan alike beliefs will come to prominence.
After all it is christian doctrine (God given Earth to Man...man is above Nature...), what is responsible for our troubles.
Next lesson will be that God doesn't care...
Anyway you do not need to worry about Inquisition in any case. Maybe your grandchildren will have to bother about it, but not you.
Stirr clear of Islamic countries and you will be fine.
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Re: Peak Oil: The end of the modeling age

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 13:39:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('undertaker', 'I') got a friend here who is also a PO forum user and PO preparer, and we agree that we are going to miss alcoholic beverages very much. On the other hand, forced sobriety may not be such a bad thing -- a blessing in disguise as it may be.

Heading slightly off-topic here, but far from it. While Asians traditionally used tea to make water safe for drinking (boiling kills all the nasties), Sumerians and Europeans used alcohol in the form of weak beer, and the Mediterranean peoples used alcohol in the form of wine diluted with water. A mere 2% alcohol content kills everything stone cold dead just as surely as boiling, and getting your two litres a day is possible without suffering alcohol-related long-term health problems. In an energy-poor world, weakly alcoholic beverages will probably become a staple, and require little in the way of technology and economies of scale.
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