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THE Subprime Situation Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 22:24:01

I think it's like peak oil in a lot of ways. Peak oil and finance are similar nuts to crack, however the finance one has much more deception associated with it and has been around a lot longer.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 22:42:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') think it's like peak oil in a lot of ways. Peak oil and finance are similar nuts to crack, however the finance one has much more deception associated with it and has been around a lot longer.
can you enlighten us? I can only suppose it's just too much.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby RonMN » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 23:18:38

Quote:
“We believe we are in the early stage of a correction in this market and that the market will eventually implode,” said Paulson & Co., a New York-based fund that manages $11 billion.

What does this subprime fallout mean for the average homeowner or purchaser? “Essentially the subprime mortgage industry—which lends to consumers with credit issues—is gone,” and those lenders that remain are tightening their lending standards, says msn Money’s Bill Fleckenstein.

In other words, a whole segment of the U.S. populace will no longer qualify for home loans.

But the damage may not just be contained to the subprime sector. According to Fleckenstein, “Alt A lenders”—companies that lend to people one step above “subprime”—will be the next section within the mortgage industry to collapse.

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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 23:25:07

Domino effect - Prairiemule has it on the nose, even those considered 'prime' have overbought and are now destined to suffer as well. The "flip, rinse and repeat" game is over, especially now as 'potential' buyers are being shut out of the market (as they should be - since when is home ownership an entitlement?). Not even the illegals can keep the racket afloat now, and other renters (like myself) are waiting on the sidelines for some "great deals".
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 11:18:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '.')..other renters (like myself) are waiting on the sidelines for some "great deals".


Me too.

"Fortunes are made when blood runs in the streets".

I'm saving my pennies for the sweet deals to come.

My best friend in Irvine, CA sold his condo last year at the top of the market and is now renting the exact same condo.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 15:48:33

I probably could have squeaked into a condo in Irvine in 2000, and I wish I had, now, assuming I'd have had the presence of mind to not re-fi myself to death and to get out in 2005......
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby PrairieMule » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 19:04:26

Looks like New Century just filed CH11 and will let 3,200 people go In Irvine (I hope none of their employees have ARMs coming due).They are the 2nd largest originators of subprime loans.

full story

I wish you could hear these some of calls from the lenders. Prime and Subprime, doesn't matter. All of em' bitching about the appraisals coming in low and new FICO requirements. Couple that with all the ARM's coming due.

Not good.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Niagara » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 22:07:04

Won't the FED just lower interest rates a notch to take some of the sting out of the housing crisis?

They're between a rock and a hard place; the interest rates need to stay fairly high to prop up the dollar, but the economy must be kept humming along.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby tsakach » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 02:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'L')ooks like New Century just filed CH11 and will let 3,200 people go In Irvine.

I heard from people who work in the area that it was "only 320 people."
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby max_power29 » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 04:13:06

[quote="PrairieMule"]All of em' bitching about the appraisals coming in low[\quote]

What forces keep the appraisers honest? You'd think it would be in their best interests to just make favorable reports for everybody. Can they be sued by the mortgage companies or something?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 17:37:04

This video was rather humorous...

http://www.paperdinero.com/BNN.aspx?id=123

"Comedian Kathleen Madigan argues that lenders should not be bailed out by the government. The subprime slime may not have fully spilled over into the economy as of yet but it certainly has infected popular media."
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby smiley » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 18:04:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')on't the FED just lower interest rates a notch to take some of the sting out of the housing crisis?


The dollar is now at a critical level. 82 point something. Just above its all time low.

An interest rate cut now would certainly drag the dollar through this barrier. If that happens it will fall a lot further.

I think ultimately they have no choice, but I think they will try to stall that decision as long as possible.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Wed 04 Apr 2007, 14:56:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'I') think they will try to stall that decision as long as possible.


And the longer they stall, the worse inflation will be.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Daculling » Thu 05 Apr 2007, 20:14:59

Check out this fun video that's been clogging the nets' I puked at the end though...

Youtube Link
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby xarkz » Thu 05 Apr 2007, 22:07:22

http://www.ml-implode.com/

Latest count of major US mortgage lenders that have croaked since late 2006: 50

the number was 20 just 2 months ago.

will we see 100 this year? :roll: (or how many are left?)
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby skiwi » Tue 10 Apr 2007, 21:19:40

Fallout in US subprime mortgage market could spread

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')1:30AM Wednesday April 11, 2007

NEW YORK - Fallout in the US subprime mortgage market could spread to related markets, the International Monetary Fund warned today, as nagging worries about housing helped weaken the dollar.

Shares of real estate investment trust American Home Mortgage Investment Corp tumbled for a second day on Tuesday after the REIT slashed its profit forecast last week.

The company's shares fell on investor concern that problems in subprime mortgages may be spreading to higher-quality housing loans, a view the IMF also gave credence to.

The IMF said in its semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report that a decline in the subprime market was more rapid than expected at this point in the overall housing downturn...
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 10 Apr 2007, 22:19:56

Housing prices haven't really come down much if at all, except for condos and such in extremely overbuilt areas like Miami.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 11 Apr 2007, 14:44:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'H')ousing prices haven't really come down much if at all, except for condos and such in extremely overbuilt areas like Miami.


Many recent purchasers have less than 10% equity in their homes, purchased at or near the peak. Even more home owners have taken out huge home equity loans, and thus reduced their equity to almost zero.

It doesn't take much of a drop at all to put a good 50% (or more) of home owners and home investors in a world of pain.

In Fort Meyers, Florida, prices have dropped 45%. It represents ground zero for the real estate crash, and the model for other over built areas, of which there are many.
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 11 Apr 2007, 14:48:33

Many recent purchasers were speculators, who bought with little down in the hope they could flip it for a profit.

At the peak of the Florida boom, condos and home contracts were being sold and resold prior to the completion of the building.

This kind of speculation drove housing prices through the ceiling. Now that the bubble is bursting, the speculators are getting hurt and average people are seeing cheaper home prices again.

Whats wrong with cheaper housing?
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Re: Subprime lending collapse?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Wed 11 Apr 2007, 14:50:39

Many recent purchasers have NO equity in their homes, remember it's over the last year that the increases in prices leveled off or started to decrease. And remember the payments are almost all interest and very little principal, at first. They're all interest or even a promotional low payment that doesn't even cover all of the interest, much less principal, in these subprime and alt-A loans.

Many of those who do have equity are losing it in the process of inflation and decreasing prices, and if they've been refinancing to support their lifestyle, from what I observe, they're keeping right on doing that.
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