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My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby pea-jay » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 21:43:54

I have been a visitor/poster to this site for almost 3 years now (wow). During that time some of you have come to know my personal struggles with this issue on a professional basis. (I'm a local government long range land use planner). Well, folks...I have an update.

I'm going to present this issue, head on with the planning commissioners and then the elected supervisors.

Why is this significant to me? Because 2-3 years ago, I was in the same position only to have a vastly different outcome. For those of you who dont know the whole story, I was a planner for a certain unnamed county in central california, focused on natural resource planning (mining, oil, natural gas & other resource permitting) when I was asked to research the future availability of the resources of the county. I first broached the issue here:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic937.html

After a year of badgering, I got permission to present my findings to the Planning commission...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5635.html

Only to be put off by the planning director who had the forsight to cancel the energy crisis.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8169.html

I was forbidden to talk about the issues. During that time I started Blogging on my idiot employer's intransigence (that soon extended beyond that to a variety of issues)
http://unplanning.blogspot.com

Finally I gave up and called it quits and high-tailed it on up to Oregon when my wife was offered a job there.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9426.html

Of course when finding a job proved impossible for a california planner, we moved back, though this time to the North Coast of the state where politics and perceptions are much more favorable.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic21700.html

Now here I am back planning, responsible for developing this county's energy policies and researching its options.

And once again I am in the position to make my full presentation (which is much better refined). This time I think its a go. I think energy will be honestly discussed.

Its coming up soon, this thursday...
And this time my message is not being muzzled.
Last edited by pea-jay on Fri 30 Mar 2007, 22:25:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby killJOY » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 22:01:33

You have guts. Good for you.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby Jack » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 23:00:06

I guess I would have thought that the GAO report, along with Bartlett's testimony would have made it a slam dunk.

But the power of blindness is strong indeed.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby Laurasia » Fri 30 Mar 2007, 23:02:19

Best of luck for the presentation; maybe you'll encounter more receptive minds this time!

Regards,

L.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby gg3 » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 00:41:55

Yo PeaJay, let's talk before you do that; I'll call this weekend...
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 02:44:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I') have been a visitor/poster to this site for almost 3 years now (wow). During that time some of you have come to know my personal struggles with this issue on a professional basis. (I'm a local government long range land use planner). Well, folks...I have an update.

I'm going to present this issue, head on with the planning commissioners and then the elected supervisors.

Why is this significant to me? Because 2-3 years ago, I was in the same position only to have a vastly different outcome. For those of you who dont know the whole story, I was a planner for a certain unnamed county in central california, focused on natural resource planning (mining, oil, natural gas & other resource permitting) when I was asked to research the future availability of the resources of the county. I first broached the issue here:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic937.html

After a year of badgering, I got permission to present my findings to the Planning commission...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5635.html

Only to be put off by the planning director who had the forsight to cancel the energy crisis.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8169.html

I was forbidden to talk about the issues. During that time I started Blogging on my idiot employer's intransigence (that soon extended beyond that to a variety of issues)
http://unplanning.blogspot.com

Finally I gave up and called it quits and high-tailed it on up to Oregon when my wife was offered a job there.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic9426.html

Of course when finding a job proved impossible for a california planner, we moved back, though this time to the North Coast of the state where politics and perceptions are much more favorable.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic21700.html

Now here I am back planning, responsible for developing this county's energy policies and researching its options.

And once again I am in the position to make my full presentation (which is much better refined). This time I think its a go. I think energy will be honestly discussed.

Its coming up soon, this thursday...
And this time my message is not being muzzled.


North Coast? As in the Santa Rosa area? (this is my neck of the woods)

Hate to burst your bubble but this area is as f--ked as all others. The only difference is people have big mouths and like to pay lip serivce to "sustainabilty."

Your message won't be muzzled but nothing is going to be done. In fact people will SEEM like they're listening and taking you seriously in these part. But ultimately not a damn thing is going to happen till either one of two things happens:

A. the grid goes down. In this case we're fucked.

B. the nukes fly. In this case we're also fucked.

In the meantime some loudmouth hippie retreads (or their political cousins) will certainly like to listen to you about these topics. But it will just be talk.

Save yourself if you can. If you can't I suppose entertaining yourself by yelling into the wind is as reasonable a form of entertainment as any other you might take part in.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 02:47:45

Before anybody asks, yes I am planning my escape. But much like the plantation system of yesteryear you have to buy your way out of slave grid. With some luck I'll be able to do that this year.

Of course if the nukes fly before then, then I'm fucked too.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 02:51:00

personal question, if you don't want to answer I totally understand:

How's the lady feeling about all this? The move from CA to OR then back to CA?

Are you in the doghouse for this or is she on board? I'm curious since a lot of guys would be taking major shit from their wives if they moved from A to B only to move back to A.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 04:06:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '
')
North Coast? As in the Santa Rosa area? (this is my neck of the woods)

Hate to burst your bubble but this area is as f--ked as all others. The only difference is people have big mouths and like to pay lip serivce to "sustainabilty."

Your message won't be muzzled but nothing is going to be done. In fact people will SEEM like they're listening and taking you seriously in these part. But ultimately not a damn thing is going to happen till either one of two things happens:

A. the grid goes down. In this case we're fucked.

B. the nukes fly. In this case we're also fucked.

In the meantime some loudmouth hippie retreads (or their political cousins) will certainly like to listen to you about these topics. But it will just be talk.

Save yourself if you can. If you can't I suppose entertaining yourself by yelling into the wind is as reasonable a form of entertainment as any other you might take part in.


Ever the optimist are ya? No, I'm further north than that. Try an hour north of the furthest extent of bay area sprawl. You can look it up on the map.

I dont (want to) agree with your comments, but I do see your point I your absolutely right on not much happening until TSHTF. But atleast we will know that (1)this is not a sign of the Rapture as was the case with some of my former collegues (2) the market WONT save us like the rest of my former collegues (3) the Feds will be irrelevant and preoccupied at best (4) we have a collection of people that already are doing. Still its a long long long way from sustainability in anything other than lip service. If the grid fails tomorrow, we are most indeededly fucked, though I must say we are less fucked if other people get nuked.

And yes I have been considering alternative arrangements.

I do not think we are catestrophically doomed in the next few years. Hurt yes...but collapse? Not without a war and a major one at that in the ME. Then maybe. Otherwise depletion will be adaptable enough given our higher threshold for economic pain, though we will have to gratiously thank our Latin American, African and poorer Asian brethern for giving up their industrializing lives so we can continue to motor on for another few years.

We'll see. Talk is better than silence.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 04:13:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'p')ersonal question, if you don't want to answer I totally understand:

How's the lady feeling about all this? The move from CA to OR then back to CA?

Are you in the doghouse for this or is she on board? I'm curious since a lot of guys would be taking major shit from their wives if they moved from A to B only to move back to A.


It was more like A-->B-->C

We moved from Point A (we both hated) to Point B (she liked, I hated) to Point C (which I like, and she is ok with). Plus with a preschooler and a kindergartner, moving is still easy. So no,no dog house, though she does use this whole topic against me when she is mad at me. She also is at some level resentful of having to give up her comforts and expectations of the future. I mean who isnt?

But the important aspect is that we had to leave A. It just sucked.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 10:44:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '
')
No, I'm further north than that. Try an hour north of the furthest extent of bay area sprawl. You can look it up on the map.



folks live an hour north, in Mendo county.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Hurt yes...but collapse? Not without a war and a major one at that in the ME.



Sweet Jesus somebody has not been paying attention lately . . .

Do you honestly think the current war and/or the impending one with Iran will not expand into a bazaar of violence throughout the entire region?
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 13:17:46

Pea-Jay, was the central California County you use to be a planner for Tulare County? Having grown up mostly near the town of Lemoore 40 years ago, your hints make it almost certain to me.

I would have to agree with your assessment of that part of the state. Up through the early 70’s it had a local charm (one that admittedly had to be acquired, like a taste for Scotch). Rural, slower pace of living, good place to grow up. One I even had thoughts of making an escape back to even a few years ago.

This notion has evaporated though with what I know now, and seeing how overpopulated the Valley has become. To be sure there is still lots of open farm land as compared to Los Angeles or Orange Counties. But I look at Bakersfield, Visalia-Tulare, and Fresno (which has merged with every town around it in the last 20 years) as LA sprawl in the making. If the oil age could continue another 30 years, the Valley would resemble LA (with a lot more Smog).

I don’t think the northern regions of the state are in that much better way; their only advantage is they get more rain and snow pack. I have written off California as a long term location and am making plans now to be east of the Mississippi when I retire from my company in another three years or the SHTF first.
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Sat 31 Mar 2007, 19:09:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby pea-jay » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 16:08:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Do you honestly think the current war and/or the impending one with Iran will not expand into a bazaar of violence throughout the entire region?


I'm not 100% sold on the war scenario. Yeah, I think it's possible and altogether too easy to blunder into but its not for certain. I can still think of scenarios that do not involve a war.

SILENTTODD:
Yes you are correct. on all counts. I characterize the valley as a dry version of the Bible Belt Americana except the Black-white racial dichotomy has been replaced by the Mexican-Anglo equivelent. If it werent for the State of California's dictates and the fact the rest of the state continously outvotes them, that place would be run with all the charm, efficiency and progressiveness of Alabama.

Religion and Growth are key ways to describe this area. Corporate megafarming would be a close third.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby clueless » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 16:35:58

SilentTodd - What are you folks down in Tustin doing to prepare for 5$ gas ???

I was talking a guy who runs a pollution control co. down there and he said you guys are running conserve water campaigns which he beleives is utterly useless and counterproductive due to the fact it will only encourage more sprawl and higher density housing (as if there is anything in LA/OC).

Wonder if Pea-Jay is talking about Wilits area ??? You didn't like Portland ??? I struggle with being in Eugene at times, but I think it's just the weather.

Come on Matt - Don't hold out on us, what's your plan ???

Hot meal cold lead ?????
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Sat 31 Mar 2007, 19:55:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'S')ilentTodd - What are you folks down in Tustin doing to prepare for 5$ gas ???


Me personally I live less than 2 miles from work and ride one of my bicycles to it every day (have been shopping around for a third bike these last couple of weeks). I have since last summer been doing all my around town travel, grocery shopping ect, with my bikes only. Here in southern California while $5 a gallon gasoline will be met with much wailing and gnashing of teeth, people will pay it. They almost have no choice. They will cut back on discretionary driving and in other things which will cause the start of economic dislocations for sure.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I') was talking a guy who runs a pollution control co. down there and he said you guys are running conserve water campaigns which he beleives is utterly useless and counterproductive due to the fact it will only encourage more sprawl and higher density housing (as if there is anything in LA/OC).


You’ll get no argument from me on this point. I have always believed the fundamental problem California has is too many people. I’ve read somewhere in the last two years the population density of this state exceeds that of Europe.

Since 1970 the added population has not come from the rest of the United States like it did after WWI & II, but from foreign countries. The open door policy that has been in effect since 1965 has transformed the city of Los Angeles into a third world country with all the associated problems now in the works.

Poor California is not the place to be when the SHTF really starts. Which is why I’m making my plans to leave
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby clueless » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 19:55:52

A guy sent me this on immigration - I have not seen it yet, but it is supposed to be scary.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7WJeqxu ... ted&search
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Mon 02 Apr 2007, 21:26:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'A') guy sent me this on immigration - I have not seen it yet, but it is supposed to be scary.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7WJeqxu ... ted&search



Yes I have seen it. The speaker is Roy Beck of NumbersUSA. You can see the whole video from their website.

http://www.numbersusa.com/index

I've thought about making this video a topic of discussion. Yes it is scary, and where I currently am living, Southern California, it's ground zero. It’s not about race, it’s about numbers from where ever immigrants are coming from. And I believe it will get a whole lot worse with the current collapse of the Mexican Oil industry.
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby clueless » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 10:43:46

I watced the video last night...Interesting !!!

I lived in OC from 85 to 96 when I moved to San Jose and after having two kids and decided to get out of dodge. I now live in Eugene Ore, which is where I grew up... I am much more comfortable here than there...
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Re: My Peak Oil Journey Comes full Circle

Unread postby Pops » Tue 03 Apr 2007, 14:01:40

Wow PJ, you made me realize that today is my third anniversary at PO.com!

Good luck on your presentation, I envy you and the many others who are trying to do the Paul Revere thing – Im not that kind of guy.

As far as the north coast goes – I love it and would have moved there if I wasn’t afraid of the mass of people in CA so addicted to their way of life that if something happened they would essentially go mad.

As you know, I also grew up in the valley – Stanislaus county. I love it there, Tulle fog, canal bank keggers (and stuff), hunting in the orchards, packing in the mountains, fishing the reservoirs - Norte Ca is truly a paradise in my eyes except for the fact that too many folks already have found that out…

In contrast, today in Missouri we are under a tornado watch with a possibility of tennis ball size hail, it is 79 degrees but may snow tomorrow tonight….

But you know what? I wouldn’t move back for love or money! The grass is already 18” tall in places, the pond is full and it is still hundreds of miles to a large city.

Again, good luck..
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