[Bleep]

Civil war or revolution? Seems their gumbent's contested in a big way now:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5311048.stm]Mexico challenger rallies support (link)[/url]
Sunday, 3 September 2006
By Duncan Kennedy
BBC News, Mexico City

Thousands of Mexicans have again turned out at a rally in support of the left-wing candidate in the contested presidential election.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told supporters in Mexico City's vast main square that they had a constitutional right to try to change the government.

He claims he was denied victory in the election by systematic vote-rigging.

That is denied by the probable winner in the election, Felipe Calderon - and by Mexico's top electoral court.

Under a burning sun and festooned in their yellow party colours, thousands of supporters came again to listen to Mr Lopez Obrador speak.

Thirty-six days into their street demonstrations, the tone of defiance was as strong as ever.

[Taskforce_Unity]

I am a bit opposed to the topic title since Cantarell's decline has nothing whatsoever to do with the opposition between the two presidential candidates.

The title has a doomish taste.

[Fishman]

I disagree Taskforce. A decline in the major source of income for a country would seem to cause much political turmoil. A civil war, now unlikely. 2 - 4 years from now with Cantrell in worse shape, very possible. Wonder where all those war refugees will want to come to? Norte perhaps? Even with no war a second world country delining to a 3rd world or even 4th world status (as its major export plummets) would make for some very interesting border issues.

[gego]

The future casts a long shadow.

Maybe Mexico has other problems today resulting from the politically engineered maldistribution of wealth, but as the energy crisis progresses won't this be accentuated

How about a pandemic of civil war - rebellion to come around the world as a result of energy related economic collapse?

It will be a field day for the communist of the world, promising the populus salvation.

[ClubOfRomeII]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'I') am a bit opposed to the topic title since Cantarell's decline has nothing whatsoever to do with the opposition between the two presidential candidates.

The title has a doomish taste.

[Neargone]

An interesting article about Mexico having to find new sources of tax revenue because of the depletion of Cantarell. Peak Oil is not mentioned. link
"The nation's major oil field, Cantarell, is declining rapidly from age. Production is down nearly 15 percent through the first 10 months of the year — more than twice the rate of decline Pemex officials predicted last year. The company's own worst-case projections show production plummeting to about 520,000 barrels a day by the end of 2008, a nearly 70 percent fall from October's average output of nearly 1.7 million barrels a day."

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Neargone', '.')..a nearly 70 percent fall from October's average output of nearly 1.7 million barrels a day."

[seldom_seen]

I thought it was peak oil not cliff oil?

[Ludi]

Holy crap! Are those numbers correct? Is this a typical depletion rate for fields of this kind?

We are so doomed!

[Schneider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')oly crap! Are those numbers correct? Is this a typical depletion rate for fields of this kind? We are so doomed!

[jupiters_release]

K'NELL !!!

[Eli]

So that is it, it is over?

Bye Bye Cantarell and US of A.

[Armageddon]

I have a funny feeling ghawar is right behind. By 2010, life as we know it now will be totally different.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'I') have a funny feeling ghawar is right behind.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('armegeddon', 'I') have a funny feeling ghawar is right behind.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')s this a typical depletion rate for fields of this kind?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he biggest untold story in the energy world in my opinion is the rapid decline in Mexico at their Cantarell elephant oil field. My February and March Hat Trick Letter reports cover the story, with full details, facts & figures. Cantarell oil production declined by 13.5% in 2006, and on track to decline by 15% additionally this year? Will the Mexican Govt suffer massive deficits soon? Will their Parliament and PEMEX labor unions obstruct ALL possible reforms and construction actions? My conclusion is that political instability is soon to come to the southern border of the United States!!! All $97 billion in PEMEX oil sales in 2006 went to the Mexican Govt to account for 40% of its budget. The absurdly incompetent Mexican Govt (rivals Washington DC and USGovt) has seen fit to commandeer almost every penny of PEMEX oil income, denying much needed funds for investment in new exploration, new capacity, even crimping basic maintenance. The press is on the story in Mexico City, but not so much in the sleepy US, where reality shows and the latest missing persons and porous borders and murder trials dominate, the latest on obesity & diabetes, if not gay marriage. PEMEX is the second biggest supplier of oil to the USEconomy. Experts now forecast that by 2010, Mexico will be on the verge of becoming an oil importer. Unlike the Saudi story, shrouded in state secrecy, the Mexican disaster is in plain view, with no debate. In fact, there has been no recognition even though the facts are laid bare for all to see.

Then comes Saudi output. Talk about putting into service excess capacity, expanding output, cutting output, agreeing on quotas, agreeing on output cuts, taking action against violator nations, bringing Angola into the OPEC fold, all this is well and good for distraction. The story to focus upon out of OPEC headquarters is the sharp decline in Saudi oil production since 2005, as shown by the graphic below, taken from The Oil Drum. This aint output cutbacks to support price. This is depletion evidence taken in four views from four sources, with four parallel trendlines. The time span shown overlaps with the push in the oil price up to the Lebanon War last July. This Saudi oil output decline all occurred, despite a 150% rampup in oil rigs in Saudi oil fields from January 2005 onward, as reported by Baker Hughes. The Saudi decline is the biggest unreported energy story, with Cantarell the second. Huge implications come to the USEconomy as a direct domino from higher oil prices. Talk on Wall Street of downward oil price trends are more propaganda and self-serving promotional chatter, as the major firms like Goldman Sachs are loading up on their energy investment positions. The risks to the USDollar are rising from both liberal monetary forces and desperate energy forces, not to mention geopolitical backlash forces.

[Jack]

Along the same line, last week's Barron's included a story about energy stocks. One paragraph:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') really don't see a lot of non-OPEC production growth. Everything else is going to be dependent upon the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries being able to increase production. There will be some [rise] certainly out of Saudi Arabia, but are Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran or Iraq really going to increase their capacity? It's hard to say they are. This year, the world is going to use about 86 million barrels of oil per day. And if every oil well in the world were running, assuming 1.2% production growth, we are producing around 88 million barrels a day. Reserves that we are putting on, in general, don't produce as fast as the reserves we are replacing.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I') wonder - what will the U.S. do as a flood of desperate would-be immigrants heads north?

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')long the same line, last week's Barron's included a story about energy stocks. One paragraph:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') really don't see a lot of non-OPEC production growth. Everything else is going to be dependent upon the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries being able to increase production. There will be some [rise] certainly out of Saudi Arabia, but are Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran or Iraq really going to increase their capacity? It's hard to say they are. This year, the world is going to use about 86 million barrels of oil per day. And if every oil well in the world were running, assuming 1.2% production growth, we are producing around 88 million barrels a day. Reserves that we are putting on, in general, don't produce as fast as the reserves we are replacing.