by DantesPeak » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 20:15:34
The main risks facing US investors are war and the falling purchasing power of the US dollar. Since the dollar is going to fall, some type of investment in natural resources seems like a good inflation hedge.
However, a significant war in the Mideast could affect investments in some unexpected negative ways. While I am sure that the price of oil would rise sharply in that situation, most likely the US and local governments would react to that by quickly controlling energy prices and/or production.
Simmons said in his recently televised talk on CNBC that he owns no stock of major oil companies, but does recommend oil servicing companies.
In the short term, three to five years, I disagree some. Major oil companies will still outperform the market in general, although the service companies may do better if you know which ones to buy.
The main downside I see is that in about three to five years, Canada, the US, and Mexico will take over oil producers or keep raising taxes due to their future 'windfall profits'. Don't laugh, even 'conservative' governments will eventually want to secure oil revenue for themselves to 'protect' the public.
So maybe take a balanced approach and do not invest too much in one area, and possibly consider "bear" exchange traded funds that move up in a down market as a hedge to your market investments in oil companies.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.