[burritos]

Newbie here. At the brief glance at the threads, peak oil seems to be portrayed as a negative condition. Personally, I think it's going to be liberating. I can't wait for it. Currently, the oil barons still have all the power and call all the shots around the world. They won't be able to do this when there's a lack of oil.

As we all know, there is an infinite amount of energy from the sun. Once cheap oil is gone, people can no longer be controlled by it. People will realize that solar is the way to go(in addition to other alternatives but solar hits the earth 24/7). Sure there will be some growing pains during the transition and acquisition and development of new technologies, but we'll survive. And we'll be better for it.

[Bas]

I wholeheartedly agree, though I think you grossly underestimate the pain this is going to cause before we hit a new equilibrium in the world; unemployment, loss of freedoms, chaos, war and last but not least massive starvation will more likely than not give face to the 21st century, and I don't think any of us, even if we live to be a hundred will see the new paradigm of a world totally independent of fossil fuels.

Welcome to the forum

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'A')t the brief glance at the threads, peak oil seems to be portrayed as a negative condition. Personally, I think it's going to be liberating. I can't wait for it. Currently, the oil barons still have all the power and call all the shots around the world. They won't be able to do this when there's a lack of oil.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', '
')
Currently, the oil barons still have all the power and call all the shots around the world. They won't be able to do this when there's a lack of oil.

.

[Ibon]

I also agree that peak oil is a good thing long term. Even the pain and suffering and starvation that are the short term consequences are a good thing. Anybody who sees painful transition as something to be avoided is simply still not willing to face that we are not entitled to levels of consumption that can only be described as parasitic to our planet's ecosystems.

Our objectivity on this issue gets distorted because we see our personal lives as being disrupted or even threatened negatively when the only way you can even begin to understand peak oil and the consequences for humans and the planet through time is to step outside of how this affects you as an individual. That is part of the beauty of the painful transition that is before us.

It's not about me. It's not about you. It is the ending of a paradigm when we have been far to obsessed with our own needs and wants and with consumption habits that have allowed us to fulfill those needs to the point of collective self indulgence so that we find ourselves where we are today.

No doubt there will be a lot of collective whining. In fact you can hear it already and it has only just begun.

[burritos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Rome wasn't destroyed in a day. We are going to see our civilisation decay, and we aren't even going to see the whole length of it. We aren't going to be the ones to build whatever comes next.')

Who was the hegemony before us? Great britain isn't doing all that badly these days. They just aren't calling all the shots.

Chindia will be the next hegemony. Good news, english will still be the language of money so we won't necessarily need to learn chinese, but we will have to learn spanish.

[Iaato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', ' ')People will realize that solar is the way to go(in addition to other alternatives but solar hits the earth 24/7). Sure there will be some growing pains during the transition and acquisition and development of new technologies, but we'll survive. And we'll be better for it.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'W')ho was the hegemony before us? Great britain isn't doing all that badly these days. They just aren't calling all the shots.

Chindia will be the next hegemony. Good news, english will still be the language of money so we won't necessarily need to learn chinese, but we will have to learn spanish.

[burritos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think a world of constantly declining energy resources is not conductive to global hegemony. Once you can't get enough oil and gas, your military's range is reduced and the potential for power projection diminished. Geopolitically, regionalisation and multipolar chaos is what I see.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', ' ')As we all know, there is an infinite amount of energy from the sun. Once cheap oil is gone, people can no longer be controlled by it. People will realize that solar is the way to go(in addition to other alternatives but solar hits the earth 24/7). Sure there will be some growing pains during the transition and acquisition and development of new technologies, but we'll survive. And we'll be better for it.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'C')onstantly declining energy resources is not totally accurate. We have more energy striking the face of the earth in 1 minute than we use in a year.

[Ibon]

Part of the "good thing" going forward is that energy will be cherished as a precious commidity like water in a desert. This will be a radical change from the way it is squandered and wasted today. Have you ever watched the reverance to which one handles something precious? This cherishing of energy will penetrate into our culture and value systems.

Just for a moment think about what percentage of energy use today is wasted and squandered in activities that not only aren't essential for our survival but are questionably enhancing our way of life? Think of the millions who fly for two week vacations in faceless resorts where they spend the time consuming; vacations, cruise industry, shopping at the mall, etc. When energy constraints make this no longer feasible it will work its way into our culture.

Consumption will no longer be a source of entertainment. Think about how this will change us culturally?

So if you took the mindless consumption out of the equation how much energy is really needed to maintain our modern society? Especially when you consider the effeciencies gained when culture starts worshipping instead of squandering energy. And when the will of society is bent toward conservation and resources go into technological advancements in effeciency instead of crass consumption?

It's true that if we had started 30 years ago we could have done it painlessly. But that assumes a culture in place that would embrace sustainability and cherishing energy. But that is putting the cart before the horse since that enlightenment requires that we get wacked in the short term.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'C')onstantly declining energy resources is not totally accurate. We have more energy striking the face of the earth in 1 minute than we use in a year. If we can't figure a way to tap that, then we deserve to fall into oblivion. ... I trust our ability to problem solve.

[burritos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Have you seen how long it took wind turbines to break through?')

Yes, but this is with the presence of cheap fossil fuels. When oil rises because of its scarcity and when fossil fuels rise upon carbon taxation, it will be easier and capitalistically more attractive to scale turbines.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Why? Because contrary to impressions, there is very little coordinated planning.')

Well let's take GE for example. They make CFC light bulbs, solar, and wind. Why? Not to save the earth but to make money. As we run out of fossil fuel options, there will be a higher demand for the above products. Higher demand commands higher prices and thus higher profits, just ask the oil companies. Who better to position themselves to scale production than one of the largest conglomerates ever? Who better to derive a plan than profit driven entities? Will other conglomerates follow suit? You bet they will, and not in an effort to save the planet. That is merely a side effect of the main goal, profit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'I'm also not optimistic about people working in enlightened self-interest for the benefit of mankind, because the track record is poor. No-one really does it, and no-one I know cares either. ')

Benefit of mankind will never overtake the will of self interest. I'll give you that. Why are more people buying hybrids? Some do it for the environment, many do it cause they think they save money. As gas prices go higher and higher, people actually will save money, and more will buy hybrids. As gas goes even higher, more will buy plugs-ins, and eventually EVs. That will create a higher demand for electricity. Carbon taxation will make solar more competetive. Homeowners will use equity lines to equip solar panels instead of granite countertops. Why? Who cares about the environment, the average joe will consider it a viable option cause $10 a gallon is just not worth it anymore.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', ' ')Why are more people buying hybrids? Some do it for the environment, many do it cause they think they save money. As gas prices go higher and higher, people actually will save money, and more will buy hybrids. As gas goes even higher, more will buy plugs-ins, and eventually EVs. That will create a higher demand for electricity. Carbon taxation will make solar more competetive. Homeowners will use equity lines to equip solar panels instead of granite countertops. Why? Who cares about the environment, the average joe will consider it a viable option cause $10 a gallon is just not worth it anymore.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'B')enefit of mankind will never overtake the will of self interest. I'll give you that. Why are more people buying hybrids? Some do it for the environment, many do it cause they think they save money. As gas prices go higher and higher, people actually will save money, and more will buy hybrids. As gas goes even higher, more will buy plugs-ins, and eventually EVs. That will create a higher demand for electricity. Carbon taxation will make solar more competetive. Homeowners will use equity lines to equip solar panels instead of granite countertops. Why? Who cares about the environment, the average joe will consider it a viable option cause $10 a gallon is just not worth it anymore.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', 'Y')es, but this is with the presence of cheap fossil fuels. When oil rises because of its scarcity and when fossil fuels rise upon carbon taxation, it will be easier and capitalistically more attractive to scale turbines.

[burritos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Exxon Mobil projects an 11%/yr growth rate for solar/wind, providing 1% of our primary energy in 2030.

The EIA projects the renewable share of world installed electrical capacity falls from 23 percent in 2003 to 22 percent in 2030.

The IEA states that in 2001, wind (onshore and offshore), solar and tidal energy represented only 0.5% of the renewable supply, which is equivalent to less than 0.1% of world’s primary energy. ')

Can you think of any reason why Exxon Mobil would downplay the significance of alternative energies? I can think of a few.

Those small contributions are indeed small, but that is with current energy consumption. That consumption will will have to decrease. How will it decrease? Charge 4 bucks a gallon next year. Charge 5 bucks a gallon in 3 years. Wash rinse and repeat.

The doomsday arguments proposed here I'm sure have plenty of evidence to scare the hell out of any rational thinking person. I just think that the changes will be gradual(yet unpleasant) enough for human ingenuity to compensate. I will concede a 10 percent casualty rate across the earth during this transition via starvation/war. But you could argue people in New Orleans, Darfur, Tsunami vics, Holocaust vics, etc... only viewed the earth as a craphole, while many others viewed it just fine simultaneously.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burritos', ' ')
Can you think of any reason why Exxon Mobil would downplay the significance of alternative energies? I can think of a few.

[burritos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'So, you posit that the decline in gasoline consumption due to higher prices will not only decrease overall consumption, but allow for economic growth, and meet new demand from the coming 3 billion more by 2050? ')

No I did not say there would be an economic growth. I do believe, though, there will be growth in alternative energy to resustitate the severe global economic depression which is inevitable because of secondary peak oil effects. But I don't think don't think the peak oil will result in armageddon. Yes people will suffer as many always have and on a larger scale, but I don't think my neighbor is going to bust through my house to raid my leftover bottled water like this dude:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'So, how far off are they? 100%? 1000%? Still, an insignificant contribution. An ad hominem attack on Exxon doesn't refute the data. ')

I don't know. How off were the tobacco industry in predicting how safe smoking was? How off are fossil fuel energy corporation's scientists on global warming. Nothing like funding science that props one's bottom line.