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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Compare with 1929 (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

When will America hit it's next 1929?

Poll ended at Fri 24 Dec 2004, 20:27:27

Any day now
4
No votes
No dramatic crash-just continuous recession (eventually)
5
No votes
Within 5 years from now
27
No votes
within 5-10 years from now
14
No votes
between 10-20 years from now
2
No votes
between 20-30 years from now
0
0%
between 30-50 years from now
0
0%
between 50-100 years from now
0
0%
Never
1
No votes
Whenever the govt publicly admits Oil has already peaked
4
No votes
 
Total votes : 57

Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby Jack » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 22:02:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('master_rb', 'i') base my opinion on visiting this site often, i see a lot of problems with people posting in "wrong" places because of not relating to PO, from what i've observed economics is a huge part of PO and can't be left in open forum, it's just too imporant, either get rid of the constraint on economics forum or create a new forum for non-PO related economic discussion


The subject of peak oil is large. By subdividing the problem into smaller parts, it becomes possible to consider different aspects of peak oil and the impact thereof.

Mixing general economics into the regular economics forum tends to dilute, and thus detract from, the usability of the resource for the intended purpose.

Subdividing the open forum into some arbitrarily large number of sub-forums evades the key focus of the site - that being peak oil.

If someone posts in the wrong forum, the thread is transfered to the correct forum. That hardly seems problematic.

As for the prime drivers - the U.S. economy is poorly managed. We have large trade deficits, a chronic budget deficit, and few real prospects of changing those realities. We have, to date, subsidized lifestyle with borrowed money. This can lead to nothing but debasement of the currency; which creates incentive to disinvest in dollar denominated assets.

All of which makes my precious metals oriented assets appreciate. So I suppose it's all good. 8)
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 22:23:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('master_rb', 'w')hat i've observed economics is a huge part of PO and can't be left in open forum, it's just too imporant, either get rid of the constraint on economics forum or create a new forum for non-PO related economic discussion


Duh? That is precisley why there is a Depletion Economics forum because it is a huge part of peak oil!

But all economics discussion is not tied to or because of the peaking of oil.

We also have an existing forum for non-PO related discussion.

It is called Open Forum.

This decision is based upon past experience. If we leave the forums open to all posts, the off-topics will push the on-topics off the front page where few will go to read them.

While I am no longer a moderator, I am still involved with making sure the site runs well.
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 22:30:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('master_rb', 'M')onteQuest

in my opinion people who come to this site are well educated and have broad interests - not just PO,


That's why we have the Open forum.

We are not a "broad interest" forum, we are a peak oil forum.
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 22:38:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')s for the prime drivers - the U.S. economy is poorly managed. We have large trade deficits, a chronic budget deficit, and few real prospects of changing those realities. We have, to date, subsidized lifestyle with borrowed money. This can lead to nothing but debasement of the currency; which creates incentive to disinvest in dollar denominated assets.


Bottom line, foreign demand for the U.S. dollar funds the U.S. federal budget deficits. Foreign investors flush with dollars typically look to U.S. treasury securities as a means of secure investment. With a large reduction in such investment, the country could potentially go into default. For example: If you owe your bank $10,000 and you can’t pay it back, you’ve got a problem. But if you owe your bank $3.5 trillion and can’t pay it back, then the bank has a problem. In finance, at least, size does matter. Things could turn very bad, very quickly. Investment money would flee the country, real estate values would plummet, and Americans would shortly find themselves living in Third-World conditions. We'll be like the monarch used to riding around in an extravagant litter, only to find ourselves dropped to the ground with no hands to carry us.
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby master_rb » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 22:55:08

MonteQuest, Jack

i understand your point, it's a matter of preference, some people like to have things more strict some like it more open, that's all

if you insist on keeping it the way it is, it's fine with me, strongly PO-centric or loosley PO-centric this site will be a good place for information and interaction either way
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby max_power29 » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 06:13:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?


Will you knock it off with all these annoying identical posts? everything in our current civilisation has to do with oil one way or the other.
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby max_power29 » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 06:19:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'A')nd I will admit I am wrong about money=oil if you can prove that the world economy is not dependent on cheap and available oil.


When the great depression started, precious metals were dollars. Coal and solar were the main energy sources. Oil power was just beginning. Now oil is dollars and everything is dependant on it.
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby max_power29 » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 06:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('master_rb', 'M')onteQuest

in my opinion people who come to this site are well educated and have broad interests - not just PO, whenever i see a discussion about dollar, debt, subprime problems, housing, greenspan etc... i see huge number of posts sometimes more than news directly related to PO like new oil field discoveries, the only PO news that have more responses than economic ones are decline rates coming from Mexico or SA

i base my opinion on visiting this site often, i see a lot of problems with people posting in "wrong" places because of not relating to PO, from what i've observed economics is a huge part of PO and can't be left in open forum, it's just too imporant, either get rid of the constraint on economics forum or create a new forum for non-PO related economic discussion

if it was me, i would put all the economic topics in one forum just to keep things together and avoid problems with moving the topics, this is just my opinion


Exactly
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Re: Investmenst flow out of USA for the first time since 192

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 12:15:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?


Will you knock it off with all these annoying identical posts? everything in our current civilisation has to do with oil one way or the other.


If you don't like the site policy, go elsewhere.
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"Crisis may make 1929 look a walk in the park"

Unread postby KevO » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 06:14:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that things risk spiralling out of their control

Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.

As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.

York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster.
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"The central banks are rapidly losing control. By not cutting interest rates nearly far enough or fast enough, they are allowing the money markets to dictate policy. We are long past worrying about moral hazard," he says.

"They still have another couple of months before this starts imploding. Things are very unstable and can move incredibly fast. I don't think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park," he adds.


3 PAGE FULL ARTICLE HERE


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Re: "Crisis may make 1929 look a walk in the park"

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 06:37:52

Great article (i love doom articles), but i think it has already been post :-)
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Re: "Crisis may make 1929 look a walk in the park"

Unread postby KevO » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 07:16:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'G')reat article (i love doom articles), but i think it has already been post :-)


Sorry if it has. I assume it must have been posted over the Crissie period when I was AWOL.
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Re: "Crisis may make 1929 look a walk in the park"

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 19:22:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '.')..but i think it has already been post :-)


Sorry if it has. I assume it must have been posted over the Crissie period when I was AWOL.
Yeah "The Hammer" found it first! But it deserves to be reposted. It's an important article and the original title was a little over the top so some people might have missed it.

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"Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'"
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Re: "Crisis may make 1929 look a walk in the park"

Unread postby Kingcoal » Mon 14 Jan 2008, 22:16:19

"exigent circumstances" "denouement"

I love it, I'm going to use these terms when the bank calls.
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Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:03:37

It will be more like 1873.

Link found on Ron Paul's Campaign for Liberty.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby MarkL » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:29:16

An interesting read. Thanks for posting it.
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby ubercrap » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:48:52

Great info!
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby sittinguy » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:58:16

Even with high gas prices and food prices people are getting along OK for now. Everyone I know still has 150 channels on TV, high speed internet, pool pump running, luxury food items, A/C on 74 degrees. And all people had to do was give up a hobby or cut back on them.

So things are going to have to WAY more expensive to REALLY get attention with action required. Rite now it just gets your attention.

My personal theory is people living within their means, even if its paycheck to paycheck, will do OK

People that NEED to use a credit card every month to make it to the next check,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ARE SCREWED

but what do I know
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby Delphis » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 13:02:50

Great read CBO!
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Re: Maybe they're right: it won't be like 1929...

Unread postby JJ » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 13:06:29

I was sacking groceries yesterday, and a guy and his other half came through the line with two shopping carts full of VERY high end groceries...he said he just lost 70K on the S&P. Wonder if he paid cash for the groceries? didn't notice.....
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