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The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 08:24:35

From oil importing to the KSA this article covers most of the things that could send oil skyrocketing here in just a few months.

http://www.energybulletin.net/27521.html
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 09:33:29

And how high will gas prices get this year?
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby KevO » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 09:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'A')nd how high will gas prices get this year?


If Iran don't cut off oil to the EU and there are zero hurricanes it will go close to $85 between April 7th and Jluy 30th.

Add $50 if Iran do the deed, and/or $21.23 for a gulf hurricane
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 10:16:40

$85 barrel? What's this? About $3.50 gal.
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 10:20:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '$')85 barrel? What's this? About $3.50 gal.


I second that. I believe it will go to $85/barrel this summer. Also, they say we ran out of $40 oil in 2005. I believe we will run out of $50 oil in 2007. It hit $49.9-something in January but I believe that was the low point. It is up, up, up from here on out. US gasoline stocks are getting tight and the summer driving season hasn't even started yet. I would not be surprised to see a fuel crisis this summer.
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby gnm » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 10:59:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '$')85 barrel? What's this? About $3.50 gal.



Price at the pump doesn't always follow the oil price but it does closely follow the wholesale refined fuels price which varies depending on both demand/refined reserves and naturally at the root of it oil. I think $3.50 would happen at about $2.25 wholesale and we were seeing nearly $4.00 (in Kalifornia) at $75 oil and $2.20 refined. I would guess that there is an excellent chance of seeing average prices of $3.50-$4.00 by the end of summer. I expect $3.00 will be the new low over winter.

-G
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 15:59:46

Here in the UK and 88p per litre petrol, we are ready. [smilie=icon_biggrin.gif]

We have had the pound digit in place since 2000. [smilie=icon_biggrin.gif]
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby nth » Thu 22 Mar 2007, 16:20:15

Nigeria is going into a civil war after Presidential elections.
What is his definition of a civil war?
I will say we are in a civil war, now!

US GoM discoveries are entering production all the time. In 5-6 years, we won't see anything different than in the next 3 years. It is not like they discover some field that was larger than fields past.

I am surprised no one mention that Cantarell has decline over 50kbpd this year based on unaudited numbers from Pemex. That is based on February numbers. At this pace, we will see at least 300kbpd of production drop. Sadly, Pemex engineers are predicting a drop similar to that number: somewhere north of 200kbpd.
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby pea-jay » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 00:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '$')85 barrel? What's this? About $3.50 gal.



Price at the pump doesn't always follow the oil price but it does closely follow the wholesale refined fuels price which varies depending on both demand/refined reserves and naturally at the root of it oil. I think $3.50 would happen at about $2.25 wholesale and we were seeing nearly $4.00 (in Kalifornia) at $75 oil and $2.20 refined. I would guess that there is an excellent chance of seeing average prices of $3.50-$4.00 by the end of summer. I expect $3.00 will be the new low over winter.

-G


You know, after a summer of $4 buck gas, a "plunge" to $3 is going to unleash a flood of relief at the pump stories. People never learn will they.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 00:26:32

Hi.
I talked to someone today in LA who thinks that gas will not reach $4/gallon while premium is already up to around $3.50 in some places around there. Denial runs strong. A lot of people seem to be generally unable to imagine things being significantly any different than they are now.

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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Eli » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 00:27:10

The big problem will be the fact that the 4.00 gas is going to be able to drive up inflation.

That in turn will force the Fed to raise rates when that happens the stock market and the whole economy is going to tank.
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby bshirt » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 07:57:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he big problem will be the fact that the 4.00 gas is going to be able to drive up inflation.

That in turn will force the Fed to raise rates when that happens the stock market and the whole economy is going to tank.


I agree.

One stiff breeze for our house of cards economy and......
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Newsseeker » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 09:23:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he big problem will be the fact that the 4.00 gas is going to be able to drive up inflation.

That in turn will force the Fed to raise rates when that happens the stock market and the whole economy is going to tank.


I agree.

One stiff breeze for our house of cards economy and......


....and we find ourselves confronted with machine guns and barbed wire at the Canadian border after our long trek in search of work. We return to our cardboard hovels and cry ourselves to sleep on an empty stomach......

Just a few optimistic thoughts for your consideration. The reality of what is to come could be much worse. :twisted:
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 17:44:29

Hi.
Actually, folks, I don't think $4/gallon gas will really make that big an impact. Here in Ca, people are adjusting to $3/gallon gas without much of a problem at all. Still the idea is that it is just high due to the greedy oil companies machinations. People have difficulty in understanding physical limitations. They tend to just think in terms of economic and social competition.

Geoff
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby lateStarter » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 18:07:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')i.
Actually, folks, I don't think $4/gallon gas will really make that big an impact. Here in Ca, people are adjusting to $3/gallon gas without much of a problem at all. Still the idea is that it is just high due to the greedy oil companies machinations. People have difficulty in understanding physical limitations. They tend to just think in terms of economic and social competition.

Geoff


And when it goes to $5, they will make the same rationalization. Same for $6. Perhaps a sudden jump from $4 to $10 would get their attention..
We have been brought into the present condition in which we are unable neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them. - Livy
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby Newsseeker » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 19:01:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')i.
Actually, folks, I don't think $4/gallon gas will really make that big an impact. Here in Ca, people are adjusting to $3/gallon gas without much of a problem at all. Still the idea is that it is just high due to the greedy oil companies machinations. People have difficulty in understanding physical limitations. They tend to just think in terms of economic and social competition.

Geoff


And when it goes to $5, they will make the same rationalization. Same for $6. Perhaps a sudden jump from $4 to $10 would get their attention..


The frog in the frying pan....
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Re: The Peak Oil Crisis: Situations To Watch

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Fri 23 Mar 2007, 19:45:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '$')85 barrel? What's this? About $3.50 gal.



Price at the pump doesn't always follow the oil price but it does closely follow the wholesale refined fuels price which varies depending on both demand/refined reserves and naturally at the root of it oil. I think $3.50 would happen at about $2.25 wholesale and we were seeing nearly $4.00 (in Kalifornia) at $75 oil and $2.20 refined. I would guess that there is an excellent chance of seeing average prices of $3.50-$4.00 by the end of summer. I expect $3.00 will be the new low over winter.

-G


You know, after a summer of $4 buck gas, a "plunge" to $3 is going to unleash a flood of relief at the pump stories. People never learn will they.


SO TRUE...
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