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Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 17 Mar 2007, 19:04:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')If jobs are sacrificed in order to use less (which must take place), those people might care to differ.

Waste is part of GDP as well.


You talk of waste as being a necessary part of GDP. I talk about it as being a part of our consumption culture that can be shed. But I prefer my way of looking at it because it seems more accurate.



So, the jobs that are created due to this waste are not necessary?

Those that get a paycheck would disagree.

You shed the waste and you shed the jobs that support it.

I'm not saying we shouldn't conserve or cut out waste, but you have to realize that the paychecks still go out for wasteful use.

Energy cares not what it gets used for.

Who absorbs the loss of jobs, businesses, and livelyhood that goes when the waste goes?

Waste is a necessary part of GDP if you want to keep the jobs that support it.

What do you do with the unemployed when you cut the waste so supply can meet demand?

New jobs? And just where, pray tell, does the energy come from to create these new jobs?

You just cut their jobs so supply could meet demand.

Back to square one.

Back to splittng the remaining pie even further...thus lowering the standard of living.

20 people with jobs at $20/hr will have to take a 50% pay to $10/hr cut so that 20 unemployed people from the "cutting of waste" can have a job.

As the population grows, the pie gets smaller and the wages get less.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 17 Mar 2007, 19:11:29

Who has a job which isn't part of the "consumption culture"?

I know for certain my job is part of the consumer culture, but, so many others seem to think there must be many jobs which are not part of the consumer culture. What are these jobs which are vital, and not part of "waste"?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 17 Mar 2007, 19:22:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ho has a job which isn't part of the "consumption culture"?


And who has a job that is not part of the waste culture?

Waste culture to me includes, ICE racing, motorhomes, jetskis, private pleasure boats and aircraft, all off-road vehicles, etc.

Will we still race cars when you have to wait in line for gas every day? Will we let motorhomes fill up when there is a chance the pumps will soon run dry that day?

Now, how many people have a job that supplies these industries one way or another?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby sylviah » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 16:07:46

Ok, so I've got a few questions. Bascially, inflation is out of control. It's not under control, like the fed reserve would like us to think. They've basically changed the way that they calculate inflation so that we don't get too frightened and think, crap, inflation is out of control.

Health care costs are rising at least 10% a year.

"Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs" are up 18.8% since the same time LAST YEAR.

A barrel of oil is up 100% since 2003.

Those are just the ones that I remember the numbers for. There's much more (see http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/ ... _of_i.html and related links)

So this is trouble. We're creating less jobs than there are new workers (which means that in real terms, we're actually losing jobs), the housing market is still tanking, retailers are doing badly, the dollar is doing badly, the stock market is seeing the beginnings of its own bubble bursting, and prices on everything are rising.

And that's just us. In Mexico, which recently hit its national peak in oil production (and which depends on its oil industry for 40% of its income) the ethanol craze has made the price of tortillas triple and in some areas quadruple since last summer.

Ok, so here's my question. I know that no-one cares about Mexico. They could all starve to death and the mainstream media would report something like "Mexicans cause own death by refusing to eat more tortillas out of sheer third-world stubbornness". And people would eat it up with a FoxNews spoon.

But the world does care what happens to the USA. And, more to the point, people care what happens to the US economy. People really, really care, because the entire global economy is dependent on the US consumer right now.

All of this recent inflation, I'm sure, can be tied to the doubling of the price of oil within the past 3 years. So: higher oil prices means higher prices in general equals more inflation means Mr. American consumer consumes less means US economy does worse.

So my question is:

WHY IS OPEC NOT INCREASING ITS PRODUCTION QUOTAS?

Can someone tell me what's up?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 18:49:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sylviah', 'S')o my question is:

WHY IS OPEC NOT INCREASING ITS PRODUCTION QUOTAS?

Can someone tell me what's up?


How about they cannot?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby sylviah » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 20:18:10

Yeah. I guess that's what Stuart Staniford has been saying recently: that the Saudis in particular (and thus the world) have hit peak. That they would definitely, given the current circumstances, increase production if they could. But they can't.

I guess I just finally started looking at the reality of it (oil-driven inflation is not a possibility, it's a reality being reflected in the CPI index, the US economy is actually in trouble, not just possibly) and started to put the picture together from the bottom up. It's one thing to understand that the Saudis may have hit peak. It's another to realize that the cost of granola at my supermarket isn't just higher than it was a few months ago cause my supermarket is trying to rip me off.

I keep hoping, though, that there's some other explanation for it. That, somehow, there's some logic behind OPEC saying that they're comfortable with $60/barrel oil and are planning on maintaining current production levels throughout the summer. Some logic other than PO.

Can anybody think of one? Are the Saudis believing (like a majority of the US seems to) the US gov't and media when it states that our economy is doing jes' fine, the housing crash will still have a soft landing, the stock market is undervalued, etc etc? Is it just me listening to the bears and the contrarians and the gold bugs?

I guess I'm asking the wrong crowd, aren't I.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 21 Mar 2007, 20:30:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sylviah', 'A')re the Saudis believing (like a majority of the US seems to) the US gov't and media when it states that our economy is doing jes' fine, the housing crash will still have a soft landing, the stock market is undervalued, etc etc? Is it just me listening to the bears and the contrarians and the gold bugs?

The jury is still out on Saudi production. They're spending a lot of money and doing a lot of work lately, just recently they committed $1bn to an island-building effort so some offshore project becomes onshore, and no-one willing to go on the record knows just how much of their claimed reserves are fraudulently reported. It is very likely they peaked, but it is possible the collapse of their fields is postponed and we see a plateau.

As for what they believe... none of it. It is simply not in their interests to discuss what they know, because they have a lot of money invested in those same markets. They will say whatever is in their financial interest, and the world will believe it.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 13:45:50

Well, it seems my ominous stagflation forecast of 2004 is here.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby cube » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 16:38:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ell, it seems my ominous stagflation forecast of 2004 is here.
woah haven't seen you in a while!
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby patience » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 18:25:09

Monte,
You were dead on, all right. So, what's your crystal ball say now? do we stay in this situation until we sink to some level of sustainability?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 18:29:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ell, it seems my ominous stagflation forecast of 2004 is here.


MQ, please do tell where you have been.

What caused the 2 month (or however long) absence? I can't believe that you just decided to completely stop posting for a while.

Were you on a safari?

At a convent?

In jail?

Was your computer broken?
:)
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 22:52:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ell, it seems my ominous stagflation forecast of 2004 is here.


MQ, please do tell where you have been.

What caused the 2 month (or however long) absence? I can't believe that you just decided to completely stop posting for a while.

Were you on a safari?

At a convent?

In jail?

Was your computer broken?


Tired of the unprofessional discourse.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 23:03:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'M')onte,
You were dead on, all right. So, what's your crystal ball say now? do we stay in this situation until we sink to some level of sustainability?


We are only 40% into the housing collapse. I am a green building contractor. Even here, which is a insulated area, the construction business has fallen flat. I work high-end clients and still have lot s of work.

Further unwinding is assured. It may be downhill all the way.
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby LoneSnark » Mon 25 Feb 2008, 10:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah. I guess that's what Stuart Staniford has been saying recently: that the Saudis in particular (and thus the world) have hit peak. That they would definitely, given the current circumstances, increase production if they could. But they can't.

The soviet's state run farms couldn't boost food production enough to feed its own people due to its inability to effectively apply 19th century technology, what makes you think Saudi Arabia's state run oil company would be able to effectively apply 20th century technology?

State run companies have proven themselves incompetent repeatedly throughout human history, why do you believe they become magically capable when they are operating in corrupt OPEC countries?
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Re: Deflation and Stagflation; An Ominous Portent

Unread postby bodigami » Tue 26 Feb 2008, 01:54:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ell, it seems my ominous stagflation forecast of 2004 is here.


MQ, please do tell where you have been.

What caused the 2 month (or however long) absence? I can't believe that you just decided to completely stop posting for a while.

Were you on a safari?

At a convent?

In jail?

Was your computer broken?


Tired of the unprofessional discourse.


hmm... didn't most active members of this website agree that the consequences they fear or are studied/analyzed most are those of psychological negative feelings? that's not proffessional at all (the causes). That most end up with some humour is sort of reassuring... going down but drinking some vodka and making dark humour if you will... at least it's not violent.
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