[NEOPO]

Thank you Leanan for the reporting and thank you Mike Bendzela and Profgoose over at The Oil Drum for the excellent article.

The Cassandra of Toledo: A Requiem For Mitigation

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Turning to peak oil: I was curious to know – as he hadn't written about the subject in years – if he had written anything lately that showed he was still of the opinion that oil was going to peak soon and that this was a bad thing. Little did I suspect the simple message he would give me:
"Michael, it's too late."

[killJOY]

Thanks. Here's what I wrote in the comments section:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m glad to see Professor Hatfield get his due -- late as it is.

In his letter to me, he said he was "honored and flattered" that I wanted to do an article on him. Can you imagine!

I was honored and flattered, by the thoughtful, well-considered answers to my questions.

The modesty of his resignation hit me quite hard during the fall months, as I contemplated writing this. I almost didn't do it.

What I hoped to accomplish with this article (besides give Hatfield some exposure):

*to not let us off the hook. Hatfield is in that small group of geologists who knew Hubbert -- Deffeyes, Campbell, et al. -- who went to great lengths to inform us about the trouble ahead. As someone above said, there's no excuse.

*to highlight Hatfield's speech at Gordon Research. Review that list of dignitaries again! They knew!

*to highlight that recognizing "it's too late" can be done with dignity.

We don't know what's in store, but who can hope that we will keep living life the same way? We can choose to face it like adults, "with much wisdom."

[basil_hayden]

GJ KJ!

[MacG]

This site will probably become irrelevant within a foreseeable future. Everyone will be fully occupied taking care of their own reality, and wont have neither time, nor interest to write here anymore. Even if they have net and grid for some more time.

[Daculling]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his site will probably become irrelevant within a foreseeable future. Everyone will be fully occupied taking care of their own reality, and wont have neither time, nor interest to write here anymore. Even if they have net and grid for some more time.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his site will probably become irrelevant within a foreseeable future. Everyone will be fully occupied taking care of their own reality, and wont have neither time, nor interest to write here anymore. Even if they have net and grid for some more time.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his site will probably become irrelevant within a foreseeable future. Everyone will be fully occupied taking care of their own reality, and wont have neither time, nor interest to write here anymore. Even if they have net and grid for some more time.

[Pablo2079]

Entertainment?

hmmmm..... I suppose all the talk of zombie hoardes is somewhat entertaining, until they really show up.

[NEOPO]

What some display, which I do understand but do not share the sentiment, is a complete and utter loss of faith in mankind's ability to survive that which we are about to receive.

One cannot use and abuse the argument "No one knows the future" lest they be a hypocrit and I will be damned if it does not occur again and again on these forums and pretty much everywhere else.

The only thing we can be sure of is change and that it will probably be quite painful as most change is for most people yet will it kill us or simply make us stronger.....

The truth is - we know not.

Seems to me if most of mankind is not overconfidently pounding on its puffed up chest it is selling itself short by wallowing in its own fecetal apathy.

Oh I know apathy and I have been wallowing in my own for the past 6 months yet it is time to kill it once and for all and move forward like the trooper I know I can be.

Is "fecetal" a word? if not, someone call webster's for me please

Anyolefucking ways and again, excellent article Mike/Killjoy.
This is hard hitting introspective stuff and I think everyone should read the full article which is of course why I wanted to post a thread on it and maybe get some discussion going as well.

In that vein and moving away from apocalyptic biker gang mentality I think it is very interesting to know the thoughts on peak oil/depletion from people such as Mr Hatfield.

I took the "its already too late Michael" as in full mitigation of a crisis, no we are not going to fully mitigate this crisis, there will be a liquid fuels crisis in the very foreseeable future yet we will mitigate somewhat and we will transition no matter what.
The size and shape of this whole thing is being determined now and into the future.
Oh its gonna be big and yeah people will die as they are already doing so for the same reasons yet nuclear war? civil war? riots in every street?

It is just another piece of confirmation basically yet its one of those pieces that I simply could not stop reading
It is a replay of many of the thoughts we have already heard/had yet for me at least it rolled along like hearing a good song for the first time.

Call me crazy but I still have hope for a non draconian transition.
I think if people who are "aware" would quit pretending that everything is hopeless and actually DO SOMETHING that we might just get by this without having to jam RFID chips up everyones asses

I think we must have patted certain people on the back once too often as now they seem to be on permanent coffee break but you deserved this one Mike as well as Mr Hatfield.

It would be grand if Mr Hatfield were to recieve and accept an invitation to this forum

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'C')all me crazy but I still have hope for a non draconian transition.
I think if people who are "aware" would quit pretending that everything is hopeless and actually DO SOMETHING that we might just get by this without having to jam RFID chips up everyones asses

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', 'T')his site will probably become irrelevant within a foreseeable future. Everyone will be fully occupied taking care of their own reality, and wont have neither time, nor interest to write here anymore. Even if they have net and grid for some more time.

[I_Like_Plants]

Except I feel no need to build a huge clock. For much of my life, the sun and the birds were fine for telling time (although on a cloudy morning when the birds would start up later, I'd end up late to work!).

"It's too late" means just that, Lovelock says the same thing.

It's too late.

We are On The Beach* people


*excellent book by Nevil Shute

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'T')hanks. Here's what I wrote in the comments section:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m glad to see Professor Hatfield get his due -- late as it is.

In his letter to me, he said he was "honored and flattered" that I wanted to do an article on him. Can you imagine!

I was honored and flattered, by the thoughtful, well-considered answers to my questions.

The modesty of his resignation hit me quite hard during the fall months, as I contemplated writing this. I almost didn't do it.

What I hoped to accomplish with this article (besides give Hatfield some exposure):

*to not let us off the hook. Hatfield is in that small group of geologists who knew Hubbert -- Deffeyes, Campbell, et al. -- who went to great lengths to inform us about the trouble ahead. As someone above said, there's no excuse.

*to highlight Hatfield's speech at Gordon Research. Review that list of dignitaries again! They knew!

*to highlight that recognizing "it's too late" can be done with dignity.

We don't know what's in store, but who can hope that we will keep living life the same way? We can choose to face it like adults, "with much wisdom."

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'E')xcept I feel no need to build a huge clock. For much of my life, the sun and the birds were fine for telling time (although on a cloudy morning when the birds would start up later, I'd end up late to work!). "It's too late" means just that, Lovelock says the same thing. It's too late. We are On The Beach* people
*excellent book by Nevil Shute

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') would disagree with that. There are many including me who dont believe that the world is ending. While it may be ugly mankind wont be taken out, we'll just get knocked down and it will take long time for us to get up.

[I_Like_Plants]

No, it wil mean the end of humans as we know humans. It's been very well demonstrated, again and again, that 'Merkans don't consider another to be human unless they have a car and a mortgage, believe in endless growth, etc. What few survive will not have these beliefs. We may go through a narrow enough genetic bottleneck to change the species appreciably. What survives would not be considered human by anyone reading this.

Remember "nits will be lice" and shooting Australian Aborigines for fun, and laws against teaching blacks to read?

No, the survivors will not be human by present standards. They will be very much differant than us - Godspeed to them.

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'E')xcept none of us will live to see that bit. I favour decline rather than cataclysm, so expect our lives to be characterised by basking at the zenith of human achievement, then experiencing the downslope. We may actually not even see the nadir. That's a cheerful thought in a way.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', 'T')hink of human civilization two generations from now. They will have no first-hand knowledge of our technological greatness, other than the few remaining tools, and the countless millions of tons of scrap they will spend their lives salvaging and re-tasking. As grandparents, we will speak of our lives as fantasy, bedtime stories that will be little more than science fiction to them. They will not have to endure what we will.

Imagine how people around Rome felt during the Dark Ages; surrounded by the ruins of a great empire, and lacking the knowledge and resources to re-create it; forced to scavenge it for the sake of survival. That's how I see our grandchildren.

[Lore]

Oh yes.... I can see it, going from rock to rock, trying to find the best one that will serve as a seat. We will fondly remember how we use to laugh at the GEICO Cave Men TV advertisements, and now we look like them. Feral children running about our feet, all looking like that kid from Mad Max, Emil Minty.

Sounds like paradise.

[I_Like_Plants]

I'm with airline pilot, it will be a long gradual decline, barring something like a plague or some really sudden ecological gyrations.

And what's this trying out rocks? I grew up sitting my bare or near-bare ass on rocks a lot and no. 1 you get to know the rocks at a place and which one makes a good seat, and no. 2 you learn to tell a good sitting rock by eye.