[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Artanis568', 'W')e already are. Russia and many European countries now have negative population growth rates, and I believe the US would if not for immigration.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')onte, Missouri? Last I checked, the entire Southeast is going to be a loss as climate change gets rolling.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')onte, Missouri? Last I checked, the entire Southeast is going to be a loss as climate change gets rolling.

[mgibbons19]

Grew up in Omaha. Currently contemplating a job offer a couple hours from there down the river.

[Newsseeker]

How many of you think it is likely that the lights will begin going out in 2008? I noticed that Duncan has moved the cliff from 2012 to 2007 and then, most recently, to 2008. How realistic is to expect rolling blackouts as industrial civilization begins to shudder and collapse in 2008? My take is not likely which makes the entire thing suspect. If it was 2020 or so perhaps but I am not holding my breath for 2008. Thoughts?

[AirlinePilot]

Personally I think we have a few more years left of the status quo. As far as the grid goes, I dont neccesarily believe in the assesment that its going to precurse other events. I doubt very frankly that predicting things like this is anything other than a WAG (Wild Ass Guess) and while its possible, It does not look like we are showing signs of a nearing any cliff....yet.

It's a plausible theory but I think we still have more time than he submits. Third world areas may already be there though.

[mgibbons19]

I think the same thing. Lots o' WAGs here.

Also, as interesting as Duncan's writing is, it really doesn't seem all that well supported to me.

Finally, just because you can see the vectors influencing a situation doesn't mean you can tell when it's going to happen. And in my experience, things always take longer than you think.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'H')ow many of you think it is likely that the lights will begin going out in 2008? I noticed that Duncan has moved the cliff from 2012 to 2007 and then, most recently, to 2008. How realistic is to expect rolling blackouts as industrial civilization begins to shudder and collapse in 2008? My take is not likely which makes the entire thing suspect. If it was 2020 or so perhaps but I am not holding my breath for 2008. Thoughts?

[I_Like_Plants]

There's so much that can change..... yes I don't really expect the lights to go out in 2008, but then, we've had a warm winter, could have a very warm summer, the sunbelt has its additional million or so people living it as opposed to last summer, all it takes is some heat waves and people all turning on their A/C (right after the radio's told them to take it easy on the A/C and they get to thinking about it) and we COULD see a grid collapse.

Last summer in the SF Bay Area we had near grid collapse, some hellacious heat waves they told people to keep off the A/C, not sure if most had the discipline, I did, and just hung out in the library with the immigrants and the homeless for those few hot hours lol.

[eXpat]

Riots in Karachi due to power outages link, whenever the electricity blackouts start, like Argentina, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, etc, riots ensue, and that's seems to be the point that marks that the decline gets stepper, essential infrastructure not being repaired massive job losses, etc. Duncan was right on the spot.

[shortonoil]

If some city in Nepal ran out of fuel for it generators would we know; I doubt it. Has anyone heard anything about Senegal lately; the last thing that I heard was on May 17th they stated that the country only had eight days of fuel remaining for its generation plants. There are may back waters of civilization that we don’t know much about, and as they “blink” out we will mostly not even notice. It won’t be until our lights start going out that we will notice, but at that point, like the Senegalese, we won’t have any way of telling anybody.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'I')f some city in Nepal ran out of fuel for it generators would we know; I doubt it. Has anyone heard anything about Senegal lately; the last thing that I heard was on May 17th they stated that the country only had eight days of fuel remaining for its generation plants. There are may back waters of civilization that we don’t know much about, and as they “blink” out we will mostly not even notice. It won’t be until our lights start going out that we will notice, but at that point, like the Senegalese, we won’t have any way of telling anybody.

[Laurasia]

We have had several short-duration blackouts recently where I work, and a particularly long-duration blackout in the subdivision where I live (Mid-South USA). The work blackouts impacted the business even after power was restored (computer systems, etc.). During the work blackouts we were hamstrung - nothing could get done. I think blackouts are a meaningful precursor of the decline mentioned in the header to this thread. And if you feel, as I do, that we are already IN the decline, then they are symptoms of it, and of the economic woes it will bring.

As far as the population situation is concerned, I have read that the population is increasing, but that the rate of increase is declining. We will continue to increase our numbers and eventually will reach some kind of level, but IMO it will be too late and the numbers will be too great.

Regards,

L.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'I')f some city in Nepal ran out of fuel for it generators would we know; I doubt it. Has anyone heard anything about Senegal lately; the last thing that I heard was on May 17th they stated that the country only had eight days of fuel remaining for its generation plants. There are may back waters of civilization that we don’t know much about, and as they “blink” out we will mostly not even notice. It won’t be until our lights start going out that we will notice, but at that point, like the Senegalese, we won’t have any way of telling anybody.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')aldemar wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergyUnlimited wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')hortonoil wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f some city in Nepal ran out of fuel for it generators would we know; I doubt it. Has anyone heard anything about Senegal lately; the last thing that I heard was on May 17th they stated that the country only had eight days of fuel remaining for its generation plants. There are may back waters of civilization that we don’t know much about, and as they “blink” out we will mostly not even notice. It won’t be until our lights start going out that we will notice, but at that point, like the Senegalese, we won’t have any way of telling anybody.

[Valdemar]

Indeed. And before that, we'll feel it through the markets as those Third World nations that supply us with goods and the like fail to deliver. Sooner or later, that effect dies and moves directly on to us.

[joewp]

I have a feeling that, rather than a constant slow demise, the declines will start slowly, and gain speed in an exponential way. As these African countries start to lose power and depopulate, the parts of the western economy that depended on them (food and raw material imports, food exports for example) will start to deteriorate. When those start to go, other parts of the economy will suffer with layoffs and buiness closings, which will effect other parts in an exponential snowball effect, getting faster and more pervasive as time goes on.

People forget what a global web of interdependence we're built up over the last 50 years, and that interdependence is accelerating in complexity even as it's beginning to collapse at the edges.

[turp182]

Someone asked about Senegal. Here's a news story from May 21, about 3 days after the reported "one week of fuel left". The government was "investing" $45 million USD equivalent for fuel purchases because suppliers wanted money up front. The article states they would receive 65,000 tonnes of fuel between May 20 and May 25.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNew ... 4220070521

As long as a country can front the money for fuel it will get it.

We need a list of countries that can't really afford more fuel, and a list of bloggers writing from these countries. They are the canaries, and their blogs are the pulse readings.

Duncan knew what he was talking about making electrical power the basis of his thoughts (predicting blackouts, which are now happening).

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turp182', '
')We need a list of countries that can't really afford more fuel, and a list of bloggers writing from these countries. They are the canaries, and their blogs are the pulse readings.

[I_Like_Plants]

We won't get bloggers from those countries who can't buy any more fuel. Blogging would take a satt phone internet connection and those are few in the best of times in the 3rd world, in a country that's about to enter serious dieoff, anyone with that kind of setup would have gotten out of there.

countries like that will simply drop out of the info-sphere, like lights winking out.