[JasonHam]

I consider myself a novice to the whole peak-oil issue. I have been educating myself on the topic for the last 2 years. I cant find any credible soource that can say WHEN peak will occur. I think this is a very important question that needs to be researched with greater passion. Who is to say that the world doesnt have another 100 years????. I know, I know, hubberts peak......but has that been accepted in the scientific community as the gold standard? Again, I'm just your average joe when it comes to this subject.

[lateStarter]

If you have been researching this for 2 years and you still don't know that the correct answer is: 'We don't know', then all I can say is: "Don't wait to see the answer on a billboard on your way to work'. We won't know until after the fact...

As far as I'm concerned, it has already occured (for whatever reason - technical, logistical, monetary, political, whatever I left out...) I would suggest getting into 'hyper-prep-mode' if you haven't even started...

OTOH, you could just continue in 'Business as usual' mode. In the end, I suspect, the results wil be the same.. Good luck to ya...

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JasonHam', ' ')I think this is a very important question that needs to be researched with greater passion.

[zberry]

Newbie,
Read the news links on Peakoil.com and Theoildrum.com provided by Leanan. In fact, spend a month visiting theoildrum.com every day and you will know where all the experts stand. There is a monthly update of production figures, with graphs showing the peaks plotted by each of the experts. No one knows when the peak was/is, but for all intents and purposes, it's right now. And not right now like in terms of 5 or 10 years from now. Literally right now.
There was a story a few days ago on Saudi production dropping 8% in 2006. This morning, an investment e-letter that I get mentioned oil as a great investment, noting that Saudi production was off 8% in 2006. No doubt where that info came from.
Seriously, hang out Theoildrum.com for serious PO discussion. Visit
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html every day for the news you aren't getting in the mainstream media.
Bottom line is it's ark-building time, IMO.

[gnm]

I have been following this issue for something like 7 years. Its really nice to see how many more peeople are analyzing the data and covering the issues now. I am no expert but IMO all the signs indicate that the peak already has happened.

Commence with ark/bunker building.

-G

[Armageddon]

The peak has already happened, but the key is how long will the plateau last , and how long can the economy hold out without energy growth. As Matthew Simmons says, " you can't grow your economy , if you can't grow your energy supply ". And, with the way our fiat money system is designed, growth has to happen in all phases of the economy to pay back the debt that is created with consumer borrowing. Consumer borrowing keeps this whole economy floating, and we are about at the end of it.

[Jack]

Moved to Welcome forum. Jack.

[sicophiliac]

Good question, you got some of the most pessimistic people claiming its happened about 2 years ago. Right now we are just on the plateau for a few years untill production starts to fall and fall fast. Some say we still have another 20-30 years but I notice those estimates are based on OPECs official reserve numbers as well as the assumption we will discover another trillion or so barrels of oil. Most likely its somewhere in between though based on my limited reading on the subject I think people like Matt Simmons are probably pretty close to right about Saudi and OPEC oil reserves being over stated. Then again on the other side of the coin you have the argument that infastructure and investment in the oil sector particularly in countries like Iraq and to some extent Iran and others isnt up to par so their oil production isnt "running on all eight cylinders" Due to war, sanctions US occupation ect ect.. So I am sure more production could theoretically be had in some places given enough money and technology was put into place. You also have unconventional oil which is bound to throw a few extra mbd into the mix in the short term. The high prices will also make alot of very small oil fields, previously claimed as "depleted" oil fields and deep sea oil now available for production. So I think realistically all of that might buy us another 4 or 5 years? maybe 10 years of a platuea if we are really lucky ?

[Ingenuity_Gap]

A lot of signs:

- reports of the largest and richest oil fields like Cantarell, North Sea, Burgan, and now Ghawar going into precipitous decline
- public statements about reaching the peak made by oil insiders like Deffeyes, Bakhtiari, Simmons, Pickens
- circumstantial evidence like the unusual emphasis put on unconventional oil and technologies like tar sands, ultra deep sea, ethanol pointing to the obvious Peak Conventional Oil
- mainstream mass media's increasing coverage of the PO subject (even if trying to debunk it)
- chronical lack of important discoveries (multi giga barrel fields)

cry in our face that PO is here.

The next 5-10 years will show us how steep the decline will be (> 5% most likely means total disaster).

After that God have mercy on us.

[NEOPO]

IMHO There are no pessimists remaining, only optomists and realists.

[Ingenuity_Gap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I')MHO There are no pessimists remaining, only optomists and realists.

[MattSavinar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zberry', 'N')ewbie,
Read the news links on Peakoil.com and Theoildrum.com provided by Leanan. In fact, spend a month visiting theoildrum.com every day and you will know where all the experts stand. There is a monthly update of production figures, with graphs showing the peaks plotted by each of the experts. No one knows when the peak was/is, but for all intents and purposes, it's right now. And not right now like in terms of 5 or 10 years from now. Literally right now.
There was a story a few days ago on Saudi production dropping 8% in 2006. This morning, an investment e-letter that I get mentioned oil as a great investment, noting that Saudi production was off 8% in 2006. No doubt where that info came from.
Seriously, hang out Theoildrum.com for serious PO discussion. Visit
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html every day for the news you aren't getting in the mainstream media.
Bottom line is it's ark-building time, IMO.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I')MHO There are no pessimists remaining, only optomists and realists.

[Ingenuity_Gap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NEOPO', 'I')MHO There are no pessimists remaining, only optomists and realists.

[Bas]

I've never been religious myself, but if that's what you choose to believe....

[Ingenuity_Gap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I')'ve never been religious myself, but if that's what you choose to believe....

[JasonHam]

Well, it seems people are already assuming peak has happened. I'm a skeptic to everything by nature. But the more I read, the more I understand, the more people I talk too, the more I'm really starting to believe that peak is here. NOW!

Gas prices are up and they are predicting 3/4 dollars a gallon this summer. And the world is definalety preparing for War.

I'm not an anarchist, I dont like to see people starve to death or kill each other over food an water. I dont like to see young men/women die in wars. But, there is something in me that wants this to happen. I cant stand the way of life we live now.

Corporate greed, a Politically Correct fake environment, Lying assholes ripping me off every turn I make; I cant pass wind without the proper papers or tags. I sit in a car for 2 hours a day picking my nose only to come home to bills, bills bills and more bills. Dont get me started on "Generica". And the ineqaulity of money in this country is unbelievable. One guy has a mansion in every vacation spot in america/world and 40 million americans dont have health care. WTF???????????/ It makes me so ANGRY. So, what I'm saying is, I kinda want it to happen. Change is difficult.

[RacerJace]

I've been lurking around peakoil.com, energybulletin.net and the oildrum.com for a couple of years now and I am convinced that we are standing on the edge off the cliff right now.

From an article posted on energybulletin.net a week or so ago there was a description of the four of the most serious events that are converging to bring about the perfect storm that MAY result in the collapse of civilisation as we know it (also covered in depth at lifeaftertheoilcrash.net). I have added some more that I believe are also building momentum. And they are:

1. Oil demand outsripping supply - aka peak oil.
2. Nationalisation of remaining oil reserves - taking oil off the market with fixed supply contracts to places like China and India.
3. Looming economic collapse - capitalistic economies will not be sustainable with rising debt funded growth and faultering GDP.
4. Food shortages - oil supply shortages and economic collapse will result in desperation in the 3rd world nations then gradually begin to impact the more developed nations. (see Zimbabwe et al)
5. Geopolitical tensions will increase as nations become more desperate - eg. the whole middle east is a tindder box just waiting to be lit. (I hope that it isn't by nuke).
6. Capital and political momentum will limit the response to a crisis reaction mode. Too little too late.
7. Climate change, global warming or more to the point "raping mother nature" will compound the hardship with more frequent devestating storms and rising sea levels.
8. Increasing threats from disease and viruses like bird flu will damage economies (hand in hand with global warming).
9. Overpopulation will be the another factor making the next few decades a life on earth a battle to the last.

There are probably many more factors to consider.. asteroids, global nukelear war/fallout, etc etc. Fact is that life as you know it will end sooner tan you think.

Enjoy what you have today. Live for a better tomorrow. Beyond that be prepared to fight for your survival.

RacerJace

[NEOPO]

Bas,
You are correct as it is only opinion thus you must ask yourself if it is only your opinion that we (this board) are pessimists?

I say we are realists and optomists and with "we" I mean anyone who understands Peak Oil - not just this board.
We either think peak has occurred or peak is about to occur or will occur within the next 30 years and this is my definition of a Peak Oil optomist - someone who feels it will not occur until 2030-2035 just as the USGS predicts.

2005 - 2035 is really not much time now is it?
Show me the Pessimists besides maybe Hubbert whom I feel was not trying to be either - just trying to be real yet I can see how many would want to label him a pessimist.

And I mean this in the "peak oil occurring" context not the "post peak" scenarios we sometimes discuss on this board context.

Nope - again I see no (few if any) pessimists where the date of Peak is concerned.

I do see a bunch of realists who have been labelled as pessimists by the sheeple and the shepards.

You mixed up "what will occur post peak" with "when will peak occur" pessimists/optomists/realists and thats okay as I have forgiven you

Edit: almost forgot the Disclaimer - IMO.

[JasonHam]

pessimist , optimist, whatever.................

Its become increasingly clear that peak oil is most likely coming sooner rather than later. I think for awhile people assumed it wouldnt happen until the late 21st century. Now, its more likely within the next decade. And society as a whole is unprepared. What its creating is a collective government attitude of "save ourselves first".

Think about it, WTF are we still in Iraq for? Afhganistan? Do you really think that G.W. and gang are so stupid that they would put this country in jeopardy because they think they can transform the politics of the MIDDLE EAST into democracy? I find that really hard to believe. And if its true, then god help us all, forget about peak oil.

I dont think the "powers to be" planned 9/11 , I think they turned their head and let it happen, then used it as a catalyst to go to war with some middle east country with lots of oil. Iraq, Afghanistan, maybe Iran. We need to have control of that oil for the next 20-30 years just in case it does run out and to figure out just what the hell were going to do. Were buying some time too prepare are citizens for the energy crunch(the reason for the new time switch was to save energy). Bin laden didnt trick us into a war. We USED him as an exuse to go to war. He was the pawn!!!


I was thinking about this the other night sitting in TRAFFIC on my way home from a senseless, dull, corporate, timesheet, TPS Report job.(which explains why i want peak oil to happen, i know, i need a change). Why doesnt the Global Warming crowd point out more often the peak oil aspect of their argument? I mean, if were running out, what difference does it make now to the environment. We wont be able to burn fossil fuels anymore because there wont be any left!! So why doesnt the Global warming crowd use this scare tactic more often to get people to swtich to the green way of living? I dont see/hear them talking about peak oil??? Its curious to me thats all......

maybe, Global warming is the Bullshit. Maybe Global warming is another way to prepare this country for a major energy crunch!! And I dont think anybody knows how bad this crunch is going to be. One things for certain. Its coming.....can we get through it safely without civilization crumbling? I dont think anybody knows.

Maybe there are alot things spiraling out of control right now and no person/government/entity can make any sense of it.