[Jack]

It looks as if a number of experts are saying that Peak Oil is upon us. In fact, one report suggests that Gwahar may have peaked. Yet, the roads and shops are full. People buy and sell. The world goes on as it did before.

But, that will change - the question is, when? Hence, this poll.

I ask when the effects will hit. By "hit" I mean clear evidence - increased bankruptcies, failing businesses, stores failing to resupply due to transportation problems, local food shortages coupled with food rotting in other locales due to transportation shortages.

This is also a U.S. centric poll - so if Peak has already hit in some of the third world, that wouldn't be salient. Further, I suspect peak will hit differently in Europe and Asia than it does in the U.S.

So, without further delay...

[TheDude]

I'll vote for Other if it means it'll happen 40 years from now like the industry says. I want my vote to count. Who's doing the exit polling?

[TITAN]

Other



I think with the coming nuclear holocaust and 95% human dieoff, the peaking of oil will be one of the last things we will have to worry about...


...

[fireplaceguy]

My vote - admittedly just a hopeful swag - is 2010. (I'm gratified to see that 100 percent of the respondents agree with me at this time...)

I both guess and hope that if the peak has indeed arrived, we will bounce along the plateau for a bit before the real pain starts. Why? There are a number of ugly economic indicators afoot that I suspect will cause a bit of demand destruction, and that should cushion the blow for two or three years. For example, the collapse of the residntial real estate market....

As they say "may you live in interestig times"

[marko]

Peak has already hit if you include resource wars. But I have not yet found any analysis more convincing than the Koppelaar report that put the peak around 2012. While we may see a recession or worse before then, I doubt that we will see steadily worsening fuel shortages before 2010 or maybe a few years later if a global depression kills demand.

[I_Like_Plants]

Yep we're at peak or hit peak in 2005. However, when the effects will be felt..... I'm going with 2010. First, that's not all that far away, about 3 years. Secondly, we've seen gasoline go from about $1.50 to $3, and no one's complaining - in fact SUV sales are quite good in the US. It's happening, but it's happening slowly, and because it's happening slowly, it will have to progress a lot further before it registers with the average American pig.

[mmasters]

I believe 2007-2008 will be interesting years to watch oil.

2009 will be the global financial crisis never to be forgotten.

2010-2015 the oil problem will become painful - life in general will become painful.

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') believe 2007-2008 will be interesting years to watch oil.

2009 will be the global financial crisis never to be forgotten.

2010-2015 the oil problem will become painful - life in general will become painful.

[128shot]

I voted Jack you are a true sociopath...

[Narz]

I voted 2009. probably mid-2009.

[lateralus]

I made this countdown userbar sig with the date I picked. When it expires and nothing happens I'll just get drunk and watch hockey.

[chukar]

I think summer driving season or Christmastime 2008. If it turns out I'm right though I'm pretty screwed...

[Eli]

It all depends.

If you are poor it has already hit and you're already hurting.

Since most of us are well off we have a while yet.

I am not looking forward to the fall but my Lord do we all have it coming.

I can imagine that the people who have to budget to buy their kids a 30 dollar pair of tennis shoes are not too happy too see gas going up to 2.50 again.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I') voted Jack you are a true sociopath...

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateralus', 'I') made this countdown userbar sig with the date I picked. When it expires and nothing happens I'll just get drunk and watch hockey.

[RonMN]

I didn't vote because I believe that if WWIII was happening right outside our windows & TV was saying "all is well"...the majority would continue to believe that all is well

With that said, I think we're seeing some of it right now & the countdown is in months...not years.

We currently have record forclosures, bankruptcies, & subprime lenders going out of business...wont be long before major pain in the larger banking industry. Granted, we are not seeing any major food shortages or transportation problems yet. But as we do, read the 1st paragraph again.

We will be swimming in denial as we're flushed down the toilet.

[JustWatch]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', '
')We will be swimming in denial as we're flushed down the toilet.

[Bas]

define pain....

I think it started hurting the airline industry a couple of years ago...

[MD]

I think there are a number of nations hurting right now. The pain will continue to spread until everyone is hurting.

It won't be long now. As far as I am concerned Ghawar is all but confirmed to be in serious decline. That latest analysis over at TOD shows the exploding rig count and declining production. Looks like Texas 1971. Aramco is running all over the desert pokin' wells in the ground. They seem to be having trouble.

see ya in the funny papers...

[RonMN]

This Story is mostly about the speculation on a woman that went missing...But check out the opening...

Quote:
Michigan's economy is imploding. Its largest industry is hemorrhaging workers and market share, and the only thing rising faster than home foreclosures are property taxes.