by mikela » Sat 18 Dec 2004, 20:00:43
These last several years economic growth has largely been a result of increased efficiency, which in turn is a result of strategies like cutting payrolls, moving jobs offshore or to contractors without benefits or job security, IT-enabled communication for increased coordination and flexibility, bringing products to market quickly, and just-in-time delivery. The economy would probably be in worse shape if just-in-time delivery had not been implemented as much as it has. And while a healthy economy is not the only thing that matters, a depression can sure make a difference when it comes to unemployment, poverty, hunger, and the safety of those who have the means to weather hard times.
I just bought a digital camera for a family member, a model that only just came to market in time for the holidays, and evidently was rushed because it suffers pretty badly from chromatic abberation. But if they had not rushed it to market, prices for similar products might be higher, and if more cameras were manufactured than were immediately needed, it would be more expensive for the manufacturer and dealers to correct the problem.
I agree that the just-in-time strategy is a bunch of dominoes just waiting to fall, but remember that there is a lot of pressure to keep the system working. If the GM strike wasn't resolved quickly, I wouldn't be surprised if the government stepped in to make sure the money continued to flow. If the supermarket shelves went bare tomorrow and panic buying ensued, it might be a tough time for a while but there will be lots of money made by those who can keep their supply chains running. Panic buying means people are willing to pay a higher price, and there is plenty of incentive for manufacturers and opportunistic businessmen to deliver the goods. Market forces have created just-in-time shippng, and market forces will create whatever other strategies keep the money flowing.
In the long run these long, delicate supply chains will have to become more local and perhaps more robust with socialistic government oversight, but I'm not too worried about the short-term. As long as I have a month's worth of food, water, gasoline, and toilet paper, I think I'll be OK until things start gettin' real bad.