[nigel]

Peak Oil theorists are apt to create PANIC and more balance and perspective is required in the analysis.

The way the world is over populating and polluting massive changes are only to be expected. Oil is but one factor. Water shortages may well hurt more people sooner than an energy crisis, for example. Desertification, climate change, decimation of fish stocks - there's a lot to worry about. Resource wars will increase. Iraq was not the first and won't be the last. China and the USA/the West will fight for oil on price - and lose - but when China goes bust how will they take it? Perhaps the scaremongers should worry about war because that's more likely to occur before oil is anywhere near running out.

Hubbert's theory should also be viewed in context. American oil was gluttonously devoured because more was found elsewhere. If it had been the world's only source it would not have been wasted so wantonly. Thus, now we are all (at last) aware that the world's resources are limited we are taking action to find alternatives. Shortages of production/supply will inevitably lead to rising prices, reduced consumption and a lenghtening of the life of the world's reserves. Development of alternatives will have increasingly large amounts of investment tossed at them. This is already happening. These considerations did not apply when America was using up its own oil and Huppert was making his predictions.

As prices rise so people will change their lifestyles. Greedy gas guzzler cars will depreciate faster and we will travel less. It's true that America, with less public transport, longer distances, a culture built around the car, cities in desert areas dependant on pumped water etc will suffer most but the world won't end in a flash. Life styles will have to change - America's more than most - and about time too.

Finally, NO-ONE knows how much oil is left. Campbell and pals guess reserves one way and say oil will peak in 2004-8, other experts (and there are many of them) say the peak won't be reached until 2026 -2050. End-of-the-worlders like to keep the date close enough to attract attention but forever delayed for one reason or another to keep making money out of it.

[OilBurner]

Nigel, all good points and you rightly state that lifestyles will have to change - something I agree with totally. However, I think the biggest area of debate and uncertaintly revolves around exactly how much change is required and how we will acheive that.

BTW we don't all advocate that the world will collapse overnight. There's a lot of different potential scenerios and each person here takes their own slightly different view about the likely direction of civilization. There are views ranging from total cornucopian to mass die off / extinction of the human specifics and everything in-between.

Why not register and join us in these debates?

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy not register and join us in these debates?

[PhilBiker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')merican oil was gluttonously devoured because more was found elsewhere. If it had been the world's only source it would not have been wasted so wantonly. Thus, now we are all (at last) aware that the world's resources are limited we are taking action to find alternatives.

[nigel]

Oil Burner - Thanks for the invitation, I may join later.

Phil Biker - I'm not clear as to which parts of the first quote you disagree with. As to the second quote you use, us Brits are there along side you risking our lives and spending our share too. Whatever one's view of the ten (?) year embargo and the war, one thing is for certain, it has been a disaster for oil production in the short term. Huge and permanent damage has been done to Iraq's rerserves as they were forced to stick-and-paste to keep the wells working. This waste is an unspoken scandal and raises questions about the/our whole Iraq policy over 10+ years. On your main point, I am a great believer in the price efficiency of capitalism. It is not (yet) perceived by the big boys to be worth going wild on R&D. They are all in there but they are progressing calmly. Why do you think this is? Are all the oil companies and investors completely stupid? When the production bottle neck starts pushing up prices one may be sure that the money will flow. Your point tends to prove that things are not as bad as PEAK OIL PANICKERS seem to believe.

[John Newman]

I tell you I am getting more scared with the more I read on this topic. I'm almost to the panic point. I don't think I will be going back to college in the fall.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John Newman', 'I') tell you I am getting more scared with the more I read on this topic. I'm almost to the panic point. I don't think I will be going back to college in the fall.

[petitepoulet]

I have been lurking here for about a week (I'm having trouble picking a screen name-suggestions welcomed) and I have observed, repeatedly and cyclically, in current and archived postings, the accusation that Peak Oil 'advocates' are engaging in doom and gloom fear-mongering, chicken littlleness and unbalanced, hystrionic instigations of PANIC.

Panic is wastful, irrational, harmfull and dangerous. Yet I have not seen a single irrational suggestion or wasteful idea for preparation that would harm or endanger the individual with or WITHOUT an eventual collapse!

Put away some spare, long-lasting food and water supplies-if Chicken Little is wrong how could this have harmed you to have done so anyway? Avoid Debt and save-what's the irrational problem here? Weatherize your home and put a brick in the toilet-very Panicy.

Move to a more rural area where the air is fresh(for now) the water sorta clean, animals exist outside of zoos and you can see the stars- yep, this would send me into a PANIC.

Maintain, re-establish or create solid, caring and durable connections and friendships with your family, friends and neighbors- a sure fire recipe for PANIC

Plant a garden and save some seeds in a jar in the freezer- learn the whole cycle of organic gardening from earth building to seed saving to root cellaring? How does this HURT?

Adapt to a new diet. . . a healthier more sustainable one . . . yeah McDonald's should PANIC . . . but me?

Go to the Doctor, get any undone minor or major operations or proceedure you've been putting off done e.g dental work or that sebacious cyst removed- how could this HURT? (do the same for pets)

Put some money into GOLD(the real metal-not Gold Contracts) nor paper 'equity'. Sure you may not see any big 'return', but no HONEST, GOOD financial advisor would fault this.

Explore, or even better, invest in PV, mini-hydro, wind, home geo-therm, solar ovens, yadda . . . more irrational behaviors.

Fix yur bike . . .senseless?

NO REASONABLE MEASURES TAKEN IN BELIEF OF THE PEAK OIL THESIS WILL DO YOU HARM IN THE LONG RUN, WITH OR WITHOUT A CRASH. In fact they will help you either way.

Even the kids here re-considering college; assuming they use the next four years to prepare, learn new skills, build community, save money, stay healthy and a miracle happens- there is no energy crash- what will they have lost when they decide to go back to school? If they do, they will be wiser, richer, smarter, and more self-sufficient; ALL skills you rarely find at college in the first place.

Finally, I think that accusations of Panic are a projection of fear of change, moreover fear of RESPONSIBILITY. Like labeling those critical of the President as 'unpatriotic' these perjoratives defend the staus quo, suppress the human spirit and encourage helplessness . . . and eventually CAUSE REAL PANIC.

The Challenge of Peak Oil, as has always been the Human Predicament, is to seek self-sufficiency in service to a durable, cooperative community. NOT rugged individualism in pursuit of senseless, futile, meglomaniacal growth without limits.

Panic is the least of my concerns.

Happy Solstice.

[OilBurner]

Congratulations on a really positive and strong post.

I think what you've said there is possibly the best argument I've heard yet against people who say "Don't let the masses know, they'll panic or we'll all be trying to do the same thing come die off time."

If we all took the sensible precautions (and positive lifestyle changes) like you outlined then the world might well be a better place.

I'd obviously subtract from that the idea of us all moving to the country - that would be chaotic!!

However, I'd add to that we should all be thinking more responsibly about energy use, fuel consumption etc. A great reason that everyone should know just how serious the situation could be.

[Pops]

Great Post!

A perfect argument for the “prepare for anything to happen, even if what happens is nothing” mindset.

If you don’t mind I’ll move this to the Planning forum later.

[dmtu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John Newman', 'I') tell you I am getting more scared with the more I read on this topic. I'm almost to the panic point. I don't think I will be going back to college in the fall.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')wouldnt make any drastic changes about college yet. Like quitting. Maybe change your major if you are in something completely useless.


Define Useless?

To me useless will be psychologists (hey i have a degree in that ), Lawyers (eventualy, not right away, the "Shakespear Option" will cull the herd), civil engineering (road/bridge building will go down)

I see a need for these professions that can be obtained at universities and other higher learning institutions:

DOCTORS, Herbal healers, (Organic ! ) Agriculture Studies, Vetrinary care (focus on livestock and horse), Pharmacopia (you supply the doctors), Martial Arts (think West Point, Anapolis, VMI - to keep the peons in line),

Here are some vocations I would recomend my children learn in order to thrive in a post oil age:

BLACKSMITHING! ( Ok this will be a slow start up compared to others, but making everything from knives to horse shoes to locks etc. can't be bad), Gunsmithing (can go with blacksmithing, but is a bit more specialized ), Soapmaking (shampoo!), Tailoring, Textile growing / Weaving, Sailing! (with real sails), Watchmaking/ Repair, Small Electronincs repair (YES we will have them for a long while yet, and they will be less disposable!), Jewelry making/repair (people always want trinkets, and Gold may only be allowed in Jewelry in the future),
HOUSEBUILDING ! (When all the crap made to last 30 years deteriorates, people will want something that lasts 200 years or more w/ care)

These lists can be added to and I invite others to do so!

I don't see a shortage of oil in the next 20 years as a complete EOTWAWKI (end of the world as we know it) but possibly a step back in time for the non elites. (us peons).

It is always possible that the wars over the remaining oil will result in a nuclear exchange, but that was possible all along (50's -80's etc.). IMHO this does make the stakes higher than philisophical difrencess over communisim vs. capitolisim, but who knows how it will play out.

[hymalaia]

I think there is a difference between taking some time out in your life to make some preperations, and throwing all your eggs into one basket, going all out to prepare and forget to live in the present! Fact of the matter is, we will all be better of if we all take little steps to prepare, rather than every one go nuts.

Personally, I've been weaning the car out slowly, going a few days at a time without it. Next step is to take weeks. I'm also planning though to use it for some longer trips, to do somethings I may not be able to do in the distant/not to distant future, such as hike some nearby mountains I've always wanted to.
But for every day life around the house, I've pumped some air into my bike tires (after the thing sat idle for over a year) and begun a new hobby! Tomorrow I get an eye exam and hopefully pick up some new glasses, while the insurance company covers it. Then I go to the dentist for the first time in years (shudder). I'm nowhere near peak oil ready and probably won't be for a long while, but I'm a lot closer than I was a month ago!

[Licho]

Newman - calm dawn, it will be ok, no starvation in west countries, just some temporary cutbacks and possible depression.. Changes will be slow and generally "natural" don't expect some huge revolution.

(Yes and other thread stated that panic is harmless - and here you have guy who wants to quit a school..)

[Pops]

EASY hymalia, get a grip!

[Aaron]

Now that was refreshing...

Thank you.

That goes a long way toward establishing credibility IMO.

In light of your post, I suggest screen name Yoda

"Wisdom lies along the middle path"

[OilBurner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'a') huge die off in the western nations may not be as bad as some of the peak oilist say

[Pops]

No Licho, the other thread points out that reasonable people can make decisions that benefit them whether things get bad or not.

Would you rather be prepared and be wrong or not be prepared and be wrong?

Some of us who are not blessed with prescience think it is prudent to prepare for as many eventualities as we are reasonably able. And speaking for myself, I feel I have a richer life and feel more confident for it.


Don’t run, you’ll only die scared.