The market will allocate oil more efficiently than you and I can imagine
The free market pits human against human. All the other systems we've created do the exact opposite.
There will be nothing at all 'effiicient' about the distribution of oil (energy) when it starts getting scarce. It will go to whomever has the most force and power.
PeakOil is You
Mrkt wll allocate oil more efficiently than YOU can imagine
Re: Mrkt wll allocate oil more efficiently than YOU can imag
by eastbay » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 06:41:52
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
-
eastbay - Expert
- Posts: 7186
- Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Re: Mrkt wll allocate oil more efficiently than YOU can imag
by Bas » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 08:10:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Peak oil has no solution. We can only let the market get on with mitigating its economic fall-out
That's exactly what I meant to say, plus that this mitigating nature of the market is easily and often underestimated by people in general.
- Bas
Re: Mrkt wll allocate oil more efficiently than YOU can imag
by MrBill » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 09:45:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Peak oil has no solution. We can only let the market get on with mitigating its economic fall-out
That's exactly what I meant to say, plus that this mitigating nature of the market is easily and often underestimated by people in general.
What some seem to be saying is that we are screwed in any case. Our economic development is unsustainable with or without increasing sources of cheap energy because our population and standards of living are far in excess of the planet's carrying capacity anyway. So therefore the status quo is not an option.
If something in unsustainable it is unsustainable. Something has to give. Either a power down or a massive die-off. You can argue about which one is more or less likely for whatever reasons.
However, the mitigating factors are the technology that will keep pieces of our society intact. Not some magic bullet that will replace all our petroleum needs with something new and better that allows us to keep living in an environmentally destructive and unsustainable manner.
In the next one hundred years more than 6.5 billion people will die in any case. Does it really matter if the number is 5.5 or 7.5 billion? If you say our current lifestyle is unsustainable why would we want to keep creating an even larger and less sustainable population? Our population replacement numbers need to be much lower. And post peak oil depletion may be the catalyst of that.
I truly believe that less than three billion people on a sustainable basis, and one-third of our existing energy base met with renewables to meet a drastically pared down socio-economic structure, would be a brilliant outcome for mankind. Forget unlimited growth. The quicker we make the transition the better.
But I am betting on a thermo-nuclear war. With more nations rushing to join the club it is just a matter of time until they fall into the wrong hands. The temptation for terrorists to bring about the ultimate clash of civilizations is just too great. Allahu Akbar!
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
-
MrBill - Expert
- Posts: 5630
- Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
- Location: Eurasia
Re: Mrkt wll allocate oil more efficiently than YOU can imag
by Bas » Tue 13 Feb 2007, 12:04:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'B')ut I am betting on a thermo-nuclear war. With more nations rushing to join the club it is just a matter of time until they fall into the wrong hands. The temptation for terrorists to bring about the ultimate clash of civilizations is just too great. Allahu Akbar!
I'm not making any bets, except the economic trend will become negative after oil-production will start to fall. Recession upon recession as I wrote in my first post. Sure we will see civil unrest during that but a total breakdown of the economy will only happen when oil production is well down the hubber's curve; until then economic laws will stil apply, be it in a shrinking economy.
As for wars and such, those are even harder to predict than the economy, the only sensible thing to be said about that is that the chance for conflict to break out will only increase over time. I guess that's what I wanted to emphasize; the gradualness of the decline vs instant doom. There won't be instant doom in a couple of years.
- Bas
