Some facts:
Best LEDs (not LED bulbs, but single leds) are now at c. 80 lumen/watt in mass production.
Best researched (announced) LEDs in labs are now in the range of 150 lumen/watt with target being 200 lumen/watt for next year (Nichia, Japan). These are NOT the same as mass production LEDs
Best LED systems (like a bulb in a 120V standard fixture) has much lower system efficacy than single leds. The best ones in mass production now operate at c. 50-60 lumen/watt.
Standard photopic Lumen/watt is not the best measure for human usable illumination efficacy.
You need to factor in the retinal sensitivy distribution. A good rough measure is so called scotopic luminous power. One can calculate this from the spectral distribution of a light source, like a LED or a CFL lamp. This measure tells you how much of the emitted light your eyes truly can use to see things properly.
The best LEDs (efficiency and scotopic luminous power) are VERY expensive. This means that you can't buy them installed in a $10 LED light bulb.
You can buy the cheaper (less efficient) and worse spectral distribution (lower scotopic luminous power) LEDs in LED light bulbs, BUT currently:
1) they have lower lighting efficacy than best of CFLs when measured in lumen/watt (or about even)
2) they have lower scotopic luminous power than best of CFLs
When you combine 1+2, you get significantly less usable human luminous power for the same amount of energy.
Now, don't get me wrong. LEDs are fantastic and they have been and are still improving in strides, BUT we need:
- fixture efficiency to improve for LED systems
- highest efficiency LEDs (150+ lpw) come to mass production
- mass production to put down prices A LOT
- fixture systems to start moving from 120V/240V/AC to something more optimal for LED lighting
- people to get used to "cold" spectral distribution of white LEDs, which provide the best luminous power/watt for human viewers
All of this will still take a few years (i.e. more than two), the last one might take a lot longer.
I'm all for LED lights myself and they have bright future, but don't go into reading all sorts of non-connected information and believing that LED lights are now the savior of the world.
Then again, do not let this stop you from installing the best of CFL or LED light bulbs. They are much better for energy savings that incandescents. I only have one non-CFL/CFL in my home (a halogen) and that is a "mere" 30W bulb on a desk lamp for color critical work (CRI 99).
regards,
halcyon
PS Fairly up-to-date best mass production LEDs info at:
http://members.misty.com/don/led.html