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Why I am not as worried about Peak Oil...

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Unread postby 0mar » Wed 15 Dec 2004, 19:18:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', 'A')h a UK person :)

I don't think you are accustomed to the American mindset. When gas prices went from 1.19 to 2.00, there was an outcry. People were betting that Bush wouldn't get elected because of this. Americans believe that cheap oil is literally their birthright, just as Kings' and Emperors' believed in their birthright to rule over men.


I find this thinking alarmist. In the 1970s, gas prices shot up and people had to wait in long lines to get gas (I did--we partied while in line). There were fistfights reported on the news. But it was not the end of the world. The speed limit was also dropped from almost unlimited in some places to a national 55 mph. Again: no riots.


This is because gas prices came down eventually. When the peak hits, I guarentee there will be gas riots. When gas goes from $2 dollars to $3, there is a lot of grumbling and complaining, when it goes from $3 to $4, it will be more grumbling. At around $5 I would say large scale rioting and violence. Remember, other aspects of the economy will be crumbling as well. When oil peaks and permantently declines, everything will suffer. Cities won't have enough money nor fuel to continue with repairs, consumers won't have enough money to buy things, basically, the entire system comes to a halt.
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Unread postby stu » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 09:54:49

I like the fact that people here are being slightly optimistic and admitting that "yes things might get bad but with some conservation and hope things won't be nightmarish".

I beg to differ. I think the problem is above PO.

In my opinion there are too many people on this planet and we do not have the technology or the resources to support them. It's not just Oil but Gas, drinking water, fish stocks, and even food. All the information that I learn just seems to point the way to a mass die off during my lifetime. I'm currently reading Powerdown by Richard Heinberg. In the opening chapter he describes the situation regarding grain crops. Apparently we are consuming more than we are producing and it is estimated that by 2008 the worlds reserve stocks of grain will be totally exhausted.

This link best sums up how I feel.

http://www.motherearthnews.com/rec/re/2113/
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:34:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I like the fact that people here are being slightly optimistic and admitting that "yes things might get bad but with some conservation and hope things won't be nightmarish".


Without sounding confrontational...

I think you are being a little patronizing here stu!!! :P

I have given a multitude of reasons why we may avoid anarchy in some parts of the world post peak not just "a little conservation and hope!"

For example why on earth would Canada collpase into anarchy post peak?
They have enough gas, coal , uranium , thorium , oil to keep them going for centuries assuming no conservation at all! (they have a similiar per capita consumption to the US). They also have mega amounts of arable land for the tiny population they support.

Will the yanks really invade a divert all Canadian resources for American consumption only?

PB :)
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Unread postby stu » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 10:44:57

No thats a fair point PB

My point is that we live in a very globalised society where certain countries around the world possess certain natural resources that we all use in our daily lives. If these countries are in developing parts of the world and they become involved in a conflict which is PO related or as a result of economic decline then we are without that resource.

For example: Ivory Coast.

Ivory Coast is the worlds number exporter of cocoa. The recent troubles there disrupted exports.

Yes it's only chocolate :roll:

But that is how I see the world. If we descend into resource wars and economic collapse then certain countries won't have the climate to grow certain things and have essential items.
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Unread postby JoeW » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 11:07:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ailrickson', '
')I being from Texas and having voted for President Bush feel confident in saying that the American people will come together and help each other out in any time of crisis. I for one would be first in line for such a charity!

:-D

No, we had a chance to "come together and help each other out in... time of crisis" on Nov 2, but instead Bush got re-elected.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 11:22:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'N')o thats a fair point PB

My point is that we live in a very globalised society where certain countries around the world possess certain natural resources that we all use in our daily lives. If these countries are in developing parts of the world and they become involved in a conflict which is PO related or as a result of economic decline then we are without that resource.

For example: Ivory Coast.

Ivory Coast is the worlds number exporter of cocoa. The recent troubles there disrupted exports.

Yes it's only chocolate :roll:

But that is how I see the world. If we descend into resource wars and economic collapse then certain countries won't have the climate to grow certain things and have essential items.


Agreed.

The most likely candidates for resource wars would be the US and China. But there seems to be a bit of paradox here. If the US thinks , "sh*t my economy is tanking because of high oil prices, thats it I am going to invade oil producing country 'x'" During the invasion of said country, oil production is removed from world market altogether(spiking prices further), even when the war is 'won' , output is still lower than pre war levels causing prices to be higher than they were prior to the invasion. So this tactic makes the US economic situation even worse!

On top of this any military a) costs a fortune making recession even worse. b) A draft will be required causing massive political pressure at home c) May cause the dollar to collapse to a level where exporters no longer supply goods to the US (ask the argentinians what that is like!) or cause rampant inflation!!

As for China, well they are also in a paradoxical situation , if the US doesn't get the cheap oil she needs , her economy tanks , the dollar tanks and demand for imports also tanks. This will collapse China at the same time ! So even if China secured the oil she needed(remember this is forecasted to be 25mpd in 2025), then China destroys all the economies she exports to and collapses her own economy.

Man this is complicated ! :)

PB
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Unread postby Guest » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 11:54:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ailrickson', '
')I being from Texas and having voted for President Bush feel confident in saying that the American people will come together and help each other out in any time of crisis. I for one would be first in line for such a charity!

:-D

No, we had a chance to "come together and help each other out in... time of crisis" on Nov 2, but instead Bush got re-elected.


Oh, so another Kerri fan eh? Kerri was just the flavor of the month, get over it! :lol:

SO if you hold a grudge that bad, then maybe charity wont extend to you. Maybe it will be civil war then?

At least the new US that comes from it wont be weak and panzy ass like its been for a long time now!

Typical isn't it? I finally extend my hand with charity, and this slap is what I get! And mods like MissingLink wonder why I so violently protect my position sometimes! (oh, but wait, missinglink is ignoring me now, very mature of him to quietly pout in his own little corner like that!)

Anyways, few people know where to find me, and those who do get shot without the secret hand shake! :twisted:
Guess I'll stick to that...
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Unread postby JoeW » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 12:21:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ailrickson', '
')
Oh, so another Kerri fan eh? Kerri was just the flavor of the month, get over it! :lol:

SO if you hold a grudge that bad, then maybe charity wont extend to you. Maybe it will be civil war then?

At least the new US that comes from it wont be weak and panzy ass like its been for a long time now!

Typical isn't it? I finally extend my hand with charity, and this slap is what I get! And mods like MissingLink wonder why I so violently protect my position sometimes! (oh, but wait, missinglink is ignoring me now, very mature of him to quietly pout in his own little corner like that!)

Anyways, few people know where to find me, and those who do get shot without the secret hand shake! :twisted:
Guess I'll stick to that...

I apologize, Ailrickson, for not fully explaining myself. I am not so much a liker of Kerry than I am a disliker of Bush. If you understand these annual federal budget deficits, then you understand that the tax cuts you and I (and all taxpayers) receive now will eventually be paid for by our children.
It makes me angry when someone hurts my children. For that reason, I do "hold a grudge that bad." If it is "weak" or "panzy" to stand up against those who would flush my children's future down the drain, then call me weak and panzy.
As far as your charity is concerned: If you want to help your fellow citizen, write a letter to your beloved president and tell him that these ill-advised budget deficits have got to stop.
Your war-mongering nationalistic attitude is exactly the emotion that leaders like to feed on. There is a time to act on the impulses of the heart, and there is a time to use your brain. When a politician tells me something, I choose to use reason to analyze the facts rather than blindly believe.
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Unread postby 0mar » Thu 16 Dec 2004, 20:35:30

We are overdue for a die off. I bet 4,000 deer didn't want to die on that one island, but they had to. I am sure the denizens of Easter Island didn't want to die, but they did.

There is a difference between what ought to be and what will be. Planet Earth can not sustain 6 billion people without expending the vast capital known as fossil fuels. We all know that sometime within the next few decades, the stocks will essentially be on the downward curve towards depletion. There isn't a way to prevent this die-off in any real sense. People are going to die and they will die in the hundreds of millions. I am thinking something of a one-two punch. Declining food production combined with an epidemic on the scale of the 1918 flu. There doesn't need to any human intervention, mother nature has a habit of controlling populations one way or another.
Joseph Stalin
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