[Pablo2079]

Oil dropping a dollar.... over even 10 in the short term means nothing. Pointing that out as proof that peak oil is fantasy is the same thing as pointing to a blizzard or cold snap to prove the Earth isn't warming.

We're screwed.... it will be interesting to watch the markets when that finally gets through to the masses. Until then, the markets will twitch in response to the daily mood of the investor. Hardly a good barometer to judge when we reached peak.

[TonyPrep]

It's quite amusing watching the energy "analysts" at Bloomberg flounder about.


I check out the energy prices here and look for articles on why the oil/gas price has gone up or down. Typically, recently, if the oil price goes up, the headline is something like "Oil rises on cold weather". If it goes down, the headline is something like "oil drops below X on indications of sufficient heating supply". At other times it might be "oil falls as OPEC cuts look unlikely" and "oil rises over fear of OPEC cuts". The opposing headlines can even occur within hours of each other.

[Daculling]

Your not alone. Over at Fark.com it is a cliche...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il prices drop (or rise) below (above) $xx a barrel on news of . . . – Commonly used starting in 2006 as headlines for articles whose topics are totally unrelated to the price of oil (e.g. “Oil drops below $70 a barrel on news of Haley Joel Osment's DUI”). Ridicules the news coverage of the recent dramatic fluctuations in the price of oil due to the oil price increases of 2004-2006 and the occasional current events which were initially blamed.

[jeezlouise]

Are you referring to this?:Oil falls from four-week high

What's weird is, I saw this article a couple of hours ago and it mentioned how crude had dropped 30 something cents in after-hours trading, and gave a time frame (10:21 am I think) for Sydney... and then when I just looked at it again the text of the article had been altered to read 9:57 for Singapore, although everything else appeared the same.

Mysterious changes aside, why is the 30 cent drop the part of the article that constitutes the headline after two straight days of impressive gains?

Maybe I'm missing something.

Edit: Now, a day later, the direction of the link itself was changed (I changed it back) and so was the stated author of the article. Maybe this is normal for them, this constant rewriting. I've never really followed Bloomberg stories out that far before.

[Bleep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daculling', 'O')ver at Fark.com ...

[TonyPrep]

This morning (NZ time), as oil prices declined significantly, the headline was:

"Crude Oil Futures Plunge After Failing to Breach $60 a Barrel"

And this was actually part of the story:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')There have been three attempts to break through $60, which have failed and are a sign to sell,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. "We've had a good run higher and now it's time for a bit of a correction. The only question is how far prices will go down.''

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hough I’m sure Goldman Sachs would never let their index department talk to their trading department.

[newman1979]

The last Bloomberg post in which Cantarell was in the header was August 06. The latest news of crashing output is apparently not newsworthy. Today the November EIA monthly was released showing that world oil production is down over 160,000 barrels a day from 2005 and November 06 is down around 400,000 barrels from November 05. In as much as December 05 was a big month, it is clear that 2006 will be lower in crude production than 2005. It also failed to report that the EIA weekly showed a 10,000,000 barrel draw in commercial oil. As of November 30,2006, May 05 is the peak month of crude production in the world, but again that is not newsworthy to Bloomberg as it might have an effect on the equities it hypes.

[TonyPrep]

From the latest oil story:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 54 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.

[grabby]

Springtime is when the refineries upgrade, clean refurbish, maintenance etc.
Its also a good time to increase oil prices.
No one will freeze and no one is traveling and people don't yammer as much.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', ' ')Why on earth would a reduction in demand for crude oil (that is, refineries not requiring oil, whilst they're offline) cause a price rise?

[TonyPrep]

At 08:30, New Zealand time, I saw this headline, about oil prices:

Crude Oil Falls on Signs of Adequate U.S. Fuel Supplies for Rest of Winter

Less than an hour and a half later, this headline had replaced it:

Oil Rises on Speculation Report Will Show a Decline in U.S. Fuel Supplies

Why do they even bother to comment on price movements?

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')t 08:30, New Zealand time, I saw this headline, about oil prices:

Crude Oil Falls on Signs of Adequate U.S. Fuel Supplies for Rest of Winter

Less than an hour and a half later, this headline had replaced it:

Oil Rises on Speculation Report Will Show a Decline in U.S. Fuel Supplies

Why do they even bother to comment on price movements?

[killJOY]

Do you ever have those quiet moments when you realize the FULL AWFULNESS of all this prevaricating in the face of yawning disaster?


I do.


It takes my breath away sometimes.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
17 6 16')

I just had to comment on this.

First of all, it is clear that the writer of this report does not know anything about statistics. If he did, he would understand that the above so-called forecast of a "price rise" is actually within the limits of normal statistical variability, and this report is as close to neutral as you are ever likely to get.

The article would have been much better written "Analysts split on week's oil price forecast". But, that would have required the reader, probably even less acquainted with statistics than the writer, to understand that there really is no difference between 17 who voted for a rise, and 16 who voted for a fall.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 54 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004

[Temperedoil]

In other words, where information on the status of one of the world's most important resources is concerned, we are being led blindly by blind fools. More than that, nobody is courageous or humble enough to admit it.

This is not to be taken as an admission, by the way. Of anything at all.

(edited for split infinitive, but I'm still not admitting to anything)

[TonyPrep]

This recent article includes the following:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')In addition, $64.15 is a resistance level predicted by Fibonacci analysis, which uses a mathematical sequence to forecast turning points in prices, said Steve Rowles, an analyst at Hong Kong-based CFC Seymour Ltd.

The price is 50 percent of the way from January's low of $49.90 back up toward last year's record $78.40 a barrel. Other break points indicated by Fibonacci analysis are 23.6 percent of the way up, 38.2 percent and 61.8 percent. Passing each of these points increases the likelihood of reaching the next level.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'D')o you ever have those quiet moments when you realize the FULL AWFULNESS of all this prevaricating in the face of yawning disaster?


I do.


It takes my breath away sometimes.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e are being led blindly by blind fools

[seahorse2]

Here's an interview with the infamous Kramer where he candidly talks about how hedge funds can easily manipulate the market.



Housingdoom