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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 21:40:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')ince then, we have been consuming 4 barrels of oil for every 1 we find


I don't have a problem with people saying that we are consuming more oil than we are finding. I also don't have a problem with people saying that oil is a finite resource. And... and i don't even have a problem with someone saying we will some day run out of oil.

What I DO have a problem with is this crazy belief that we are on the verge of hitting some mythical peak moment. and at that moment, all heck will break loose and total chaos will reign and all of society will disapear into some death spiral of anarchy.

its a fun theory to discuss, but not based on real science. instead what we will see if a very, very gradual decline in oil production (marked by occational rises in oil production) as prices steadily climb up and new forms of fuel replace our need for oil. Not very dramatic is it? not very exciting. but much more practical and realistic.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 01 Feb 2007, 21:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', ' ')I don't have a problem with people saying that we are consuming more oil than we are finding. I also don't have a problem with people saying that oil is a finite resource. And... and i don't even have a problem with someone saying we will some day run out of oil.


Oh, so we will peak, just not right now?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I DO have a problem with is this crazy belief that we are on the verge of hitting some mythical peak moment. and at that moment, all heck will break loose and total chaos will reign and all of society will disapear into some death spiral of anarchy.



Well, that death spiral view is only held by an extreme faction. Reaching peak oil is not a mythical moment, it is a geological moment. And it's not so much about reaching peak production as it is about the reaction to it.

Will oil not go up markedly when the markets truly understand that production has peaked? It goes up now with the slightest geopolitical or weather news due to a lack of spare capacity. This is what will cause the chaos. We designed, built and maintain our economies on the back of cheap, readily available fossil fuels that are becoming increasinlgly scarce and unaffordable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')ts a fun theory to discuss, but not based on real science. instead what we will see if a very, very gradual decline in oil production (marked by occational rises in oil production) as prices steadily climb up and new forms of fuel replace our need for oil.


Your postings amuse me. There are three things no one knows about our oil situation.

1. What the decline rate will be once we peak.

2. How much recoverable oil is in the ground. We need more transparency.

3. How the markets and people will react.

Even at the existing field dlecine rate of 4 to 5%, than means 50% loss of oil production in 14 to 17 years. The trend is 8%, 50% loss in less than 9 years. Some of the major fields are showing a 14 % decline. What will the average be? No one knows.

New forms of fuel? A new oil? We wish. Even if we find one, it will take decades to exploit it. There is currently no basket of alternatives that will, or can, replace oil in the manner and scale we use it.

It's not that they are so bad, but that oil is so good.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 01:12:33

i predict a 0.25% decline rate, which gives us 200 years to reach 50%. The rationale being that as field start drying up, there will be an enormous, monumemntal effort to find new deposits and drill deeper than anyone has ever drilled before.

so i agree we have a problem. and the problem is we only have 200 years to develop ethanol!

I look forward to posting in the Peak Ethanol Crisis Forum. Can we get a moderator to start the new forum?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 01:20:45

Umm...Here is yet another study done by "Economists" showing ethanol to be a very poor choise.

http://www.registerguard.com/news/2007/ ... cityregion

Why are you stilll bagging on the Sadaam Hussein deal - Like it or not he doubled their reserved estimates which are still counted the same today.

Dude, you really have a problem dealing wth reality.

Have a nice day - Enjoy your reserve estimates and .25% decline rate.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 01:53:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i') predict a 0.25% decline rate, which gives us 200 years to reach 50%. The rationale being that as field start drying up, there will be an enormous, monumemntal effort to find new deposits and drill deeper than anyone has ever drilled before.


Well, the US experienced a 2% decline rate in spite of mega drilling. Drilling more does not help.

Image

Deeper? Ever hear of the oil window?

The oil window refers to the depth at which the process of turning kerogen into oil can occur – from 6,000-7,000 ft. to 13,000-15,000 ft. At greater depths you would not get oil ... but gas.

Let's look at Alaska and ANWR.

95% Probability 5.7 bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 bbls = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported.

This is what an enormous monumental effort would produce.

And even if we could produce more, the Alaskan pipeline only holds 2mbpd and is half full with Prudhoe Bay oil.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 04:31:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'W')hy are you stilll bagging on the Sadaam Hussein deal - Like it or not he doubled their reserved estimates which are still counted the same today.


clueless, how can you possibly believe this?? Are you really trying to say that you, sitting at home pecking away on your computer, know more about the world's oil supplies than the hundreds of scientists working for the EIA? Is that really the point you are making? Do you really think every single one of these scientists have been fooled and are clueless as to what's really going on??

Perhaps you can email one of them so that they can issue a new report with the corrected numbers on it.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 07:27:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'a')nd as far as the arguments I am railing aginst, it is simply the many, many people on this forum who are predicting total societal colpase in the next 5 or 10 years. It shouldn't take you long searching this forum to spot the ones who fit this category.
Then it shouldn't take you long either. I'm sure that there are a few people who predict total societal collapse in 5 to 10 years, but not many. If you can find a few such posts, please supply links (hint: use the little document link to the left of the subject line for the post). I think it's true to say that many people here think peak will occur in that time frame but total societal collapse is another matter. However, as someone else pointed out, that wasn't the subject with which you started this thread.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'f')or the sources supporting my beliefs, perhaps you missed it, but the source of my facts has been EIA, which is the leading authority of global oil production in the nation.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html
As I understand it, they use the 2000 predictions of another agency, the USGS, so maybe they aren't quite the leading authority that you imagine. I understand that the USGS 2000 predictions aren't doing too well, so far. However, the only references to EIA figures that I've seen you use, support entirely the opposite to what you claimed (that demand was going down). You've since, rather grudgingly, admitted that you were wrong on that. Which other of your points do you think the EIA supports and could you provide links?

By the way, the report you cite has the following note: "Proved reserves, as reported by the Oil & Gas Journal, are estimated quantities". This is precisely what you refuse to believe, instead claiming that proved reserves are fact, are definitely there and recoverable, no question.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'F')or clueless to put forth his thoery that sadam hussein has somehow tricked all of these scientists and that he himself understands the situation better than all of them is utterly preposterous.
It's hard to believe that you genuinely missed the point that clueless was making, but, assuming that you are posting the results of genuine thought processes, you clearly did miss that clueless's point was that Saddam issued the reserve estimates and they have not been changed since. Do you now understand his point?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '1')) Continuing to find new deposits
2) rising prices pressing down the demand more than today's scientists expected
3) New technologies allowing for more oil extracting than today's scientists are currently calculating
4) New forms of fuel coming on stronger than people expect.
On point 1, where is your scientific evidence that such finds will be able to more than offset depletion? I trust you realise that they will have to, in order to have any significant effect on the peak date? If we produce 30 billion barrels per year, then discoveries of proven reserves will have to total 30 billion barrels. More the year after, and more the year after that.

On point 2, what is likely to cause prices to rise enough to depress demand? (By the way, your cited EIA report projects demand rising to 118 mbpd by 2030).

On point 3, you could be right but it is more a belief than fact. And who are the scientists who may have got it wrong? Do some of them work for the EIA?

On point 4, again you could be right but, until it happens, it's a belief.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'N')ow these are beliefs and i am entitled to them. So far i have been right, because every year the projections for hitting this peak point gets pushed back a little.I haven't seen that. Projections tend to be fixed for quite some time. Deffeyes has stuck to his guns and even oil bosses have conceded that conventional oil may already have peaked. I think Colin Campbell first mentioned 2010 as a possible problem date in 1998. He thinks peak will be about 2010 now, though I understand the actual production figures (and demand figures) are higher than he originally imagined. And I'm not sure but I think Chris Skrebrowski has actually brought his peak date projection forward slightly, in his latest update.

However, it's good that you are now referring to your opinions as "beliefs", rather than scientific facts.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'f')or those who are predicting we will see total global chaos due to diminishing oil supplys in the next 2, 5 or even 10 years, it simply isn't going to happen. There are too many variables in place all tracking in favor of the peak being pushed back further, and anyone who ignors all those factors is not looking at this subject reasonably.Again, not many are predicting total societal collapse in that timeframe, but many of those predicting peak soon are scientists. Do you think they are not looking at the subject reasonably? Some have a lot more knowledge than you about the oil business and oil geology. And I'm not aware of any analyst ,who acknowledges peak, actually stating it won't happen for centuries, as you appear to believe.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby smiley » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 09:13:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')miley, you are clearly the smartest person in the room, perhaps you can shed some light on where you think my analysis is off base. I completely reject the Peak Oil Crisis Theory (The version shared by most people on this forum). Here are two fatal flaws with it:

1) The basic theory says that we will hit a "peak" and then each year production will decrease leading to untold chaos etc etc. And my response is: says who? <snip>

2) The second fatal flaw of the theory is that it assumes that demand will always increase, or at least will be higher than the production. <snip>

maybe someone can explain how these two (obvious) fatal flaws are not valid.


oil_rock To answer your first question. The Hubbert model as well as any other model is an approximation and therefore subject to deviation.

The model predicts a decline rate for a certain year. The actual decline rate will fluctuate within the error margin of the production estimate. And that could mean that we will have a year or even multiple years of increasing production on the downslope. However if the model is correct, these positive years are balanced by negative years, sic years that production declines faster than the model prediction.

I wouldn't call that a benefit.


The second question is what I call outrunning peakoil. If we curb our demand for oil at the same pace as the production declines we will have no problem.

I see that as a possibility. A lot of our oil consumption we can either exchange for other sources or discard by conservation. Therefore I am not a proponent of a quick and imminent collapse, because these theories ignore the flexibility we still have in our consumption pattern.

But it is like a family in financial perils. First they start looking for ways to decrease their spending, for instance by changing their cable subscription, going to a cheaper grocery store etc. This allows them to live the same life but cheaper. (conservation by efficiency)

If the problems continue they start changing their lifestyle. They might for instance sell their car, do away with their cable subscription entirely etc. At this point they start making adjustments to their quality of life, and they will be generally unhappy with the changes. (conservation)

And when push comes to shove, they might be forced to leave their house and live on the street.

Conservation by efficiency and conservation will only take us so far. Outrunning peakoil will work for a while, but we have to realize that it will catch up with us someday.

Another big wildcard in this story is stability. Resource problems are the foremost cause of war and other instability in history. Now we can say that we have become enlightened, civilized etc and don't do those things anymore , but I'd say that a quick look at the news shows otherwise.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby AirlinePilot » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 10:09:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'B')ut it is like a family in financial perils. First they start looking for ways to decrease their spending, for instance by changing their cable subscription, going to a cheaper grocery store etc. This allows them to live the same life but cheaper. (conservation by efficiency)

If the problems continue they start changing their lifestyle. They might for instance sell their car, do away with their cable subscription entirely etc. At this point they start making adjustments to their quality of life, and they will be generally unhappy with the changes. (conservation)

And when push comes to shove, they might be forced to leave their house and live on the street.

Conservation by efficiency and conservation will only take us so far. Outrunning peakoil will work for a while, but we have to realize that it will catch up with us someday.


Very eloquently and simply put Smiley.....but for those of us in the room who are slightly asleep, lets take that one step farther down the Hubbert curve....

Ask yourself a very basic question. What happens to our economies as we begin these lifestyle changes? What happens to spending and ivestment? This impacts the economy in a double whammy fashion. Not only the increased cost of energy (which we are seeing now) but also the possible collapse of the entire system dependent on having cheap oil and NG. It might not neccesarily be a "collpase" but it most definitely will be a very large contraction. Some here as me believe it will be a global depression due to the fact that we have not spent the time required in advance to begin some form of transition to a powered down state. Instead we get there dramatically. It MIGHT go different, but If you look reasonably at things, the longer we go denying this even may happen, the uglier things could get on the downside of that curve.

Instability, both politically and resource wise make things just even uglier, not better when you look at our track record as humans.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 11:06:24

It might not neccesarily be a "collpase" but it most definitely will be a very large contraction.


Yes exactly AP, also known as a depression. The only way out of said depression is increasing the energy input and growing the economy elsewhere (e.g military hardware in the 1930's, our best example).

When it is impossible to increase the energy input it is impossible to reverse the depression, it does not matter where you spend the energy you have as there will always be less and less. (MQs' posts exaplain this very well)

Also it seems some of you are argueing with an individual who cannot grasp the fact that a mans' actions in life are not suddenly erased from time when he dies. (maybe oil_rocks has visions of Saddam dissapearing from photos like that scene in 'back to the future'.)
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 12:09:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')lueless, how can you possibly believe this?? Are you really trying to say that you, sitting at home pecking away on your computer, know more about the world's oil supplies than the hundreds of scientists working for the EIA? Is that really the point you are making? Do you really think every single one of these scientists have been fooled and are clueless as to what's really going on??


Clueless - Middle Eastern reserves have NOT been inspected (by the EIA). They are taken at face value . Perhaps when your guy GWB quells the "inusrgency" they will be able to get in and inspect. BUT OPEC does not allow "outside" parties to measure their oil reserves (and why should they), they are considered "State Secrets".

You know you really should not come to a gunfight with a pocketknife - You have just enough information to be dangerous (to yourself).
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 12:21:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you really trying to say that you, sitting at home pecking away on your computer,


And by the way - I have a job that involves talking to people on the telephone, negotiaiting, discussing, not hiding behind an anonymous screen name making fruitless arguments on a discussion board. Don't project your insecurites on me. Furthermore I am recruiting and seeking wisdom from vetran Engineers who work for the largest energy companies in the world, companies that acutally make somthing valuable to society - Not MSN or Porn.com.

I also have the ability to listen and ask questions, learn and accumulate knowledge from people who are smarter than me - unlike you who just spouts off rhetoric, and calls it fact.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 14:10:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'c')lueless's point was that Saddam issued the reserve estimates and they have not been changed since. Do you now understand his point?


Hmmm why not? why havn't they been changed yet? If i was a scientist I would change it. No, I'm sorry guys, I’m still not quite getting this point. Sadamm is dead now, and has been in prison for the past 3 or 4 years, so if he issued some report it was probably from before he went to prison (just a wild guess). Now the report I cited was issued in June 2006 and was put forward by the top scientists of our day when asked to estimate the world's oil supplies. So how is it that all of these scientists were fooled? Seems like maybe one of them would have said, "hey, since we all know that sadam's estimate was falsely doubled, lets report the real number rather than the fake number".

Or could it be that none of these scientists has the same information that everyone on this board has? So which is it? are all of these scientists complete idiots and clueless to these facts that all of you know? Or, did they know about them, but just thought it would be too much work to put out an accurate report?

Or maybe can it be that they are in on some kind of global conspiracy to issue false reports so that the world is blind to the dangers of the peak oil crisis??? This is frightening!!
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby Bas » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 14:14:50

you are slowly coming around isn't it, Oil Rocks?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 15:15:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mmm why not? why havn't they been changed yet? If i was a scientist I would change it. No, I'm sorry guys, I’m still not quite getting this point.


In the best case it is a "reserve estimate"

es·ti·mate /v. ˈɛstəˌmeɪt; n. ˈɛstəmɪt, -ˌmeɪt/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[v. es-tuh-meyt; n. es-tuh-mit, -meyt] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation verb, -mat·ed, -mat·ing, noun
–verb (used with object) 1. to form an approximate judgment or opinion regarding the worth, amount, size, weight, etc.,

It could be more could be less. But a rational person has to take into account the character of the ones providing the estimates.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 16:21:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I')s it that much of a stretch to believe that the dangers of Peak Oil, with or without conspiratorial behavior, have been intentionally suppressed?


That's one of my big problems with the peak oil crisis theory. Its built on a foundation conspiracies, half-truths and junk science. any report that comes out that in any way contridicts the "sky is falling" beliefs, well that report is immediately dismissed as some kind of grand global conspiracy. no matter who issued the report or what their credentials are. And the answer is anways the same, "well all those scientsts were tricked into making that report, but we here on this forum are smart enough to see through the tricks."

its pretty obvious we have many, many years of oil in the ground today and will find many, many new desposits in the years to come. Should we be planning for life after oil? yes but should we be storing up bottled water and learning how to farm? well, that's up to you but its clear the need for those things won't be for 50, 100 or even 200 years down the road.

are we on the verge of hitting the peak? YES! but if you look at the mathematics and factor in societies strong desire to survive, its pretty clear that peak will last over 100 years.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 16:29:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's one of my big problems with the peak oil crisis theory. Its built on a foundation conspiracies, half-truths and junk science.


So the US production peak in 72 is built on $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')onspiracies, half-truths and junk science
. If so then you are the "conspiricy theorist".

Need I say more !
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby clueless » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 16:50:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')re we on the verge of hitting the peak? YES! but if you look at the mathematics and factor in societies strong desire to survive, its pretty clear that peak will last over 100 years.


I do not have data at my fingertips to support this...But I am well aware a famine can wipe put a population in 3 months, and has happened many times.

Want to upset the entire balance of western civ ??? Take out a couple tankers in the strait of hormuz...It would not take "100 years" too get a glimpes of a post peak world.

Dude - You take far too much for granted. It will be very interesting to see the likes of you see their fantasy's crash down to the earth.

And BTW: I just got off the phone with two 35+ year Project Managers that design and build power plants..Both say the next twenty years are going to be MUCH MUCH different than what we are used to. And we were not even talking about oil.

Go ahead and believe your corporate propaganda, I'll take the word of Proffessionals that work in the industry - Who are making the decisions on 500 million dollar investments, rather than some anonymous hacker on PeakOil.com
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby oil_rocks » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 17:48:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 's')ome anonymous hacker on PeakOil.com


I think you meant hack. a hacker is someone who illegally breaks into a computer database.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Postby TonyPrep » Fri 02 Feb 2007, 18:26:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'T')hat's one of my big problems with the peak oil crisis theory. Its built on a foundation conspiracies, half-truths and junk science.
No it's not. Why do you constantly repeat these nonsensical claims when you apparently haven't read any analyses from scientists like Jeremy Leggett, Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, and many others, plus well researched arguments from people like Richard Heinberg? Everything you put forward is a belief that these considered analyses are wrong, as they might be, but peak oil "theory" (as you term it) is most certainly not based on junk science. You have presented no science here, so why do you believe that you're right and those people are wrong?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'a')ny report that comes out that in any way contridicts the "sky is falling" beliefs, well that report is immediately dismissed as some kind of grand global conspiracy. no matter who issued the report or what their credentials are.
Again, wrong. Which reports are you referring to? Some, like the CERA report (which is probably closest to what you are saying, but which you will probably disagree with anyway, since it predicts a peak within a few decades) have been seriously analysed, not just dismissed out of hand.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'A')nd the answer is anways the same, "well all those scientsts were tricked into making that report, but we here on this forum are smart enough to see through the tricks."
You seem to be making things up again. Please provide links to where such responses are given and show that they are typical.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i')ts pretty obvious we have many, many years of oil in the ground today and will find many, many new desposits in the years to come. Should we be planning for life after oil? yes but should we be storing up bottled water and learning how to farm? well, that's up to you but its clear the need for those things won't be for 50, 100 or even 200 years down the road.
Well it appears to be clear to you but only because of some deep seated faith that you have. Whilst there will be oil in the ground for centuries, a diminishing amount will be available for our use. Whilst many new discoveries will be made, it's highly unlikely to be significant amounts. You have claimed support from historical data but ignore the fact that discoveries have been trending down for 40 years. Again, you provide no good evidence for what you believe. That's fine, just don't expect anyone to believe the same thing, just because you do. Not even the great EIA supports your views (that there will be no problem with oil for a century or more). You appear to be utterly alone.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'b')ut if you look at the mathematics and factor in societies strong desire to survive, its pretty clear that peak will last over 100 years.Please present the mathematical argument. And a desire to survive doesn't find oil and doesn't get oil out of the ground any more efficiently. Again, it's clear to someone with strong beliefs in the future but you've present no convincing case for your views.
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