[pup55]

Here is a list of oil discoveries announced in 2007. This list comes from the archive at Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections (gasandoil.com) who collects this stuff.

As in previous years, I have listed separately the test well announcements from the "field size" announcements. Typically the ASPO numbers, which are posted about this time of year are pretty similar to the "field size" numbers.

For 2007, there were 18.2 gb of new discoveries announced, of which 9 consisted of the big offshore find in the Gulf of Mexico. Aspo's estimate will say about 15-16 gb of oil. My methodology is that when someone announces a test well, I make an estimate of the pumping life of the well and count that as a reserve. ASPO typically counts the announcements if they give an estimate for the field size only. This probably amounts to double counting on my part. But since I did it this way the last two years, I am consistent.

Also note that the big field in the gulf was announced as something like "3 to 15 gb of oil" which means there is a lot of uncertainty as to how much they can get out of the hole. If Reservegrowthrulz was here, he would tell you that most of these have the potential to be a lot different from the original announcement. So, take these numbers with a grain of salt.

So I guess the moral of the story is: We still only found about half as much oil as we consumed, even by getting really lucky and running into a big find in the GOM. Also, the idea of higher prices really has driven people to go around the world drilling holes, since discoveries appear to have increased the last three years. But, this is still not enough to make up for current consumption.

Let the chips fall where they may.

Here is the list:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
test well field size

1/11/2006 Total Angola 9640
12/1/2006 PTT Alteria 5100
1/16/2006 PTT Thailand 7880
1/17/2006 Secura Peru 1200
1/17/2006 Peru Ministry Peru 2396
1/18/2006 Petramina Malaysia 3072
1/25/2006 Lukoil Caspian 600
1/30/2006 Emerald Syria x 408
2/7/2006 KNOC Vietnam x 300
2/7/2005 Shell Egypt 2200
2/2/2006 Agiba Egypt 6
2/14/2006 Peak Nigeria x 120
2/16/2006 Sonagol Angola 5347
2/16/2006 Total Libya 2300
2/16/2006 Repsol Libya x 500
2/17/2006 OMV Libya 2300
2/17/2006 Pebercan Cuba 2700
3/1/2006 Sonagol Angola 5347
3/9/2006 Galleon Alberta 2599
3/9/2006 PTT Thailand 3300
3/17/2006 CNOOC Bohai 760
3/20/2006 Gupco Egypt 5000
3/21/2006 Total Congo 4970
3/21/2006 Lukoil Russia x
3/23/2006 Premier Oil Indonesia 580
3/27/2006 Statoil North Sea x 150
3/31/2006 OMV Tunisia 1500
4/24/2006 PetroIran Iran x 1000
4/28/2006 SOCO Vietnam 9008
6/5/2006 BP Angola 1970
5/11/2006 IPR Egypt 1400
6/1/2006 Tuha China x
6/7/2007 Guarjat India 1400
6/8/2006 GSPC India 862
9/6/2006 Statol North Sea x 15
6/12/2006 DNO Kurdistan x 100
6/14/2006 Delta Saskatchewan 456
6/14/2006 Dagang China x 30
6/21/2006 Husky Labrador x 65
6/26/2006 ONGC India 7500
7/4/2006 Santos Vietnam 1500
7/4/2006 Tullow Uganda 4200
8/10/2006 Antrim Argentina 345
8/14/2006 Hardman Uganda 12000
8/15/2006 Dana North Sea 7500
8/22/2006 CPMS China x
8/23/2006 Siepetrol Egypt 500
9/1/2006 Petrolifera Argentina 2376
9/5/2006 BG North Sea x 275
9/8/2006 Devon GOM x 9000
9/18/2006 Canadian Super Alberta 150
9/19/2006 Ginko Dead Sea x 6.5
10/4/2006 Petrobras Brazil 4900
10/11/2006 Premier Oil Vietnam 5543
11/4/2006 NOC Libya 550
11/12/2006 Billiton Trinidad 5000
10/31/2006 RWE Libya 410
11/10/2006 Sipetrol Egypt 850
11/7/2006 Heritage Uganda 5600
10/23/2006 Marathon Angola 2050
10/19/2006 Talisman North Sea 11000
10/12/2006 Statoil Venezuela 5543
12/28/2006 Sinopec Xinbei 50.4
11/27/2006 Norsk Hydro Oseburg 4000
11/26/2006 SEPOC Yemen 700
11/14/2006 DNO Kurdistan 3840
10/11/2006 Premier Oil Vietnam 5543
11/7/2006 Heritaage Canada 4120
11/10/2006 Enap Egypt 850
11/2/2006 Talisman Trinidad 5000
11/4/2006 NOC Libya 550
11/15/2006 Apache Egypt 18200
11/25/2006 Enap Egypt 850
11/27/2006 Genting Indonesia 500 ')

Test wells: 2.244 gb
Field announcements:16.120
Total: 18.365 gb

2005 total: 12.651 gb
2004 total: 9.731 gb

[Taskforce_Unity]

your 2004 and 2005 numbers are quite accurate Pup55, with a 15% error margin of what IHS Energy reports!

2006 was a good year for discovery, including Jack (in the order of 400 million barrels). The extra drilling effort seems to pay off. Interestingly, finds in China were very low while they are drilling like made.

Thx for the insight!

[grink1tt3n]

I know it's impossible to know, but it'd be great to have:

1. the potential rate of extraction for each field
2. best time to till extraction startup

[rockdoc123]

I'm assuming these are BOE because most are gas discoveries. The numbers look high to me so I would like to check them with some of my other sources (IHS and WoodMac).

Looks wildly optimistic from what I remember seeing a couple of weeks ago in a presentation that Ian Cross from IHS gave. But I could be wrong and need to check.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ith a 15% error margin of what IHS Energy reports

[nth]

Excellent data gathering.

A rule of thumb is to say for every billion barrels proven reserve will equal 200kbpd. As others pointed out, this is not accurate at all, but just a way to guess what the production maybe like.

Another one of these wild rule of thumb is to use 8-12 years time frame from discovery to production.

It used to be 5-7 years, but due to equipment and personnel shortages this have lengthen to 6-8 years. Industry estimates project the lengthening to continue, so that is why I use 8-12 years. Please do note that in 2009-12 deep drilling rigs will most likely increase by 50% to almost double current fleet. Also note that almost all these ships are already under contract despite the fact they are only on paper and shipyard had not completed.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ll these ships are already under contract despite the fact they are only on paper and shipyard had not completed

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ll these ships are already under contract despite the fact they are only on paper and shipyard had not completed

[nth]

2006 oil and gas discovery survey

Here is something for you to cross reference.
I will await for your list of 2007 discoveries next year.

[khebab]

A few recent ones:

China, Tahe field in Xinjiang: 7.462 kbpd

Angola, Block 31 (offshore, BP): 3.822 kbpd

[PWALPOCO]

My recollection is that the USGS analysis future oil discoveries is the basis for various agencies and organisations assumptions about future oil production.

With that in mind, and knowing that 2007 has so far been a good year how is the discovery rate shaping up with the USGS expectations ?

Paul

[Dan1195]

If you examine the discovery graph by year, within the overall downward spiral there are a string of very bad years and then a couple of"not as bad years". This is one of those latter years. Of course they had to go to extreme deepwater and well depth to get most of it, but the cornucopians will tell the masses "see, there is still plenty of oil.....

As mentioned above some of these finds, Jack in particular will have a very long lead do to lack of equipment and shortages. Hurricanes can pose of problem of course also in the GOM

[nth]

For me, a good year means we discover more oil than we use.
As far as I can tell, 2007 is not going to be a good year.
I don't even remember when was the last good year according to my definition. It must be like in the 1970's.